Posted on 02/05/2006 8:50:31 AM PST by TVenn
ping
I nominate this sentence for Best Non-Sequitur of the Century.
Here we go with the conspiracy theories again. I guess 3rd world economies rule the world, not the largest one that supports them all.
http://www.ccc.nps.navy.mil/si/nov03/middleEast.asp
The effect of an OPEC switch to the euro would be that oil-consuming nations would have to flush dollars out of their (central bank) reserve funds and replace these with euros. The dollar would crash anywhere from 20-40% in value and the consequences would be those one could expect from any currency collapse and massive inflation (think Argentina currency crisis, for example). You'd have foreign funds stream out of the U.S. stock markets and dollar denominated assets, there'd surely be a run on the banks much like the 1930s, the current account deficit would become unserviceable, the budget deficit would go into default, and so on.
Hazel Henderson goes pretty much down the same road as Clark, but in doing so, broadens her analysis by looking at OPEC's potential decision to price in euros not so much as a purely political one (as was the case for Iraq). Instead, she suggests that for OPEC a switch to euros could be driven more by concern over the long-term decline in the value of the dollar, as in this scenario[14]:
pong
No they won't. Dollars held or accumulated for investment or trade purposes have nothing to do with petrodollars.
Corsi is reporting. You decide.
And what would happen to every other economy if the US economy collapsed?
Tehran is doing everything it can to incite a US attack.
"...HahahHAH America!! We're going to open up an oil bourse dealing with Euros only!! And that'll encourage all oil-purchasing nations to dump dollars, thereby trashing the dollar..which will force your Fed to raise interest rates.. which will deflate your housing asset bubble, leading to......ahh, forget all that. We're gonna build a bomb and nuke Israel. Come and get us..."
http://energybulletin.net/12125.html
The Iranian government has finally developed the ultimate “nuclear” weapon that can swiftly destroy the financial system underpinning the American Empire. That weapon is the Iranian Oil Bourse slated to open in March 2006. It will be based on a euro-oil-trading mechanism that naturally implies payment for oil in Euro. In economic terms, this represents a much greater threat to the hegemony of the dollar than Saddam’s, because it will allow anyone willing either to buy or to sell oil for Euro to transact on the exchange, thus circumventing the U.S. dollar altogether. If so, then it is likely that almost everyone will eagerly adopt this euro oil system:
.........................
Whatever the strategic choice, from a purely economic point of view, should the Iranian Oil Bourse gain momentum, it will be eagerly embraced by major economic powers and will precipitate the demise of the dollar. The collapsing dollar will dramatically accelerate U.S. inflation and will pressure upward U.S. long-term interest rates. At this point, the Fed will find itself between Scylla and Charybdis—between deflation and hyperinflation—it will be forced fast either to take its “classical medicine” by deflating, whereby it raises interest rates, thus inducing a major economic depression, a collapse in real estate, and an implosion in bond, stock, and derivative markets, with a total financial collapse, or alternatively, to take the Weimar way out by inflating, whereby it pegs the long-bond yield, raises the Helicopters and drowns the financial system in liquidity, bailing out numerous LTCMs and hyperinflating the economy.
It's amazing to watch history unfold.
Expect to be totally slammed and ridiculed by those who don't understand the dollar's monopoly position as the world's reserve currency for the last half century, or what it will mean when that monopoly is broken.
ME oil goes mostly to Europe, Japan and Asia.
They would feel the effects much worse if that oil supply was interupted, and we didn't keep doing the dirty (and thankless) job of ensuring those shipping lanes stayed open. Only 10% approx of our oil imports comes from the ME. unreast in the ME will hurt them far more than us.
I am not sure Iran cares.
As far as the other nations,never underestimate the power of greed. Sometimes greed inspires a very shortsighted view with destructive long term consequences.
Ahmadinejad's stated, professed goal it to cause a global economic catastrophe, leading to global war and chaos, from the ashes of which the global islamic caliphate will arise. This is why he is also threatening to "wipe Israel off the map," threatening to block the Hormuz Strait, and is visibly going ahead full-tilt to become a nuclear power.
It is his goal to foment global disaster. You cannot apply standards of rationality to him. This is the type of big error Chamberlain made at Munich, thinking he could deal rationally with "Herr Hitler."
Ahmadinejad's cult faction is so insane, that it was violently suppressed under the regime of even Ayatollah Khomeini, who had some worldly goals he wished to attain.
Not so Ahmadinejad. His dream is apocolypse. His means of getting there is to goad the USA into a war, which will then result in cutting off 30% of the world's oil by cutting the Hormuz for as long as possible.
He is literally insane, and he has some great levers of power (oil, nuke program, 100s of mobile missiles) to cause great damage to the world.
Remember, this is exactly his goal, and he does not need to plan how to WIN this war, only how to START this war, to achieve this goal.
If you need to convert to dollars to buy petroleuim, then it is logical to support that dollar by buying US Treasuries etc.
OTOH, if you can buy all the oil you want from Iran and Venezuela, then why bother to buy and hold US Treasuries in the first place, when they are steadily eroding in value?
"Ahh, good evening, my name is Ahmadinejad, and I'll be your jihad instigator tonight. We have a wide variety of incentives for your selection on our menu. For the US business-minded, we have the full-bourse deal, involving deflation or hyperinflation..your choice, and for Israel we have the Sharat missile nicely topped with a freshly made nuke sprinkled with acts of Al Quada, which can also be shared with our European guests, and finally, an item for everybody, a Hormuz Strait closer. Enjoy, and please don't hesitate to act on anything else we haven't thought of."
Indeed.
The Iranian government has finally developed the ultimate “nuclear” weapon that can swiftly destroy the financial system underpinning the American Empire. That weapon is the Iranian Oil Bourse slated to open in March 2006.
It appears a time bomb may be ticking.
If the Iranian Oil Bourse does open and then appears to be having the effect predicted by some on the value of the dollar,many in the world and at home might question the motives behind an attack on Iran.
If people in power privately share the concerns expressed by Corsi and others on this matter, there appears to be a narrow window to act.
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