Posted on 01/18/2006 7:52:44 AM PST by misterrob
What does that have to do with ANYTHING if the Iranians have 100s of MOBILE, HIDDEN Silkworm anti-ship cruise missiles? Do you assume we know where every single Iranian Silkworm is hidden?
Are you aware of how many much larger mobile SCUDs we successfully destroyed before launching during the Desert Storm air war? Depending on who you read, from a handful to zero. Saddam's mobile SCUDs were launched on every day of that monthlong air war.
Sure, the SCUDs ended up not stopping us, but the equation is very different when you are taling about sea-skimming silkworms targeting fat slow oil tankers.
Once the tankers are burning, the insurance companies will declare that a state of war exists in the region, and they will cancel their policies.
This is one of the many ways that Iran can bottle up the Persian Gulf oil flow.
If the Iranians used their military to attempt such a thing from the land, it would cause fits for us and we would have to go into a fairly large war footing to put a stop to it. At that point it would be an issue of how much the Iranians were willing to lose to maintain such a condition...and how long we would be willing to attack them (and not just the launchers, but their C&C, infrastructure and other military units (anti-air, radar, etc.)). Given the economic considerations, we would go to whatever lengths necessary...but it would hurt economically, pehaps greatly, before we could put a complete stop to it.
If it were just their small Navy trying to launch them, that would be one thing...but if they are launching them from land launchers, particularly mobile ones, or from aircraft...then it gets much more dicey and involved as you correctly point out.
I keep reading rosy-scenarios like "In 12 hours we would crush them in an airwar" and I have serious doubts.
As I recall, we never had any success finding and destroying Iraqi mobile SCUDs during Desert Storm, and I wonder if Iran would be able to just pop off a couple of Silkworms a day to keep the oil flow stopped.
Look at this list of Iranian missile imports!
http://www.nti.org/e_research/profiles/Iran/Missile/2420.html
It's really just a function of how you look at it. Since it's low point in late 2002, the market is up about 50%. NASDAQ, on the other hand, remains about 60% below it's 2000 peak.
The Greenspan comment I don't totally agree with. He choked off the economy with a Fed rate of 6.5% in mid 2000.
You have FRemail
"Another problem with unbridled S-200 proliferation is the relative ease with which the interceptors can be converted into ballistic missiles. The S-200 is particularly suitable for conversion because it was originally designed to carry a large HE or nuclear warhead. In addition, the S-200 has a substantial range even in its unmodified state. With appropriate upgrades and modifications, rogue nations and terrorist-sponsoring states could significantly increase the range of the S-200, the end result being a highly capable offensive weapon
Not so right back at you: it's the number of shares wanted to buy and wanted for sale that ultimately will be equal as the market clears at the lower price. It's an old joke, anyway.
Good grief.
Not funny. She's already asking for more money to make up what she just lost.
Oh, damn. You were serious!
Not to mention mines
I would think that anyone that is not an idiot that knows that if they might face US they need to be able to operate without centralized command and control. That may be in our favor as tyrants can't really have their military operate with autonomy otherwise they will lose their grip on power. I have heard that a e-5 has more authority than a Capitan in most soviet/arab style military. And typically connections and ideology are the way to advance in rank in those type of millitaries so perhaps they have a bunch of inbred idiots in command
There are too many points on the globe where an oil crisis could happen. If it becomes necessary to put troops on any of these points it will already be too late.
"The Greenspan comment I don't totally agree with. He choked off the economy with a Fed rate of 6.5% in mid 2000."
Of course you don't agree. We talking about two different things. By liquidity I am referring to money supply. You obviously are talking about short term interest rates instead.
The way that the Fed loosens or tightens monetary supply is through interest rate hikes or reductions. What are you talking about?
Very hard to predict the effect of middle east strife on equities, except maybe for specific sectors directly affected.
Fact is, the market could plunge for cyclical reasons with no negative externalities at all.
"Question: how many mobile Silkworm anti-ship cruise missiles does Iran have?"
They have fewer mobile missile launchers than we have Trident warheads. :) Nuke 'em all, let Allah sort 'em out.
"Question: how many days did it take to knock out all of Saddam's mobile SCUDs during Desert Storm?
"(We never did.)"
Ah, but the SCUDs were fired at cities, which stay in one spot.
Ships, on the other hand, have this annoying habit of moving. (It's REALLY annoying for me, because I get motion sickness very easily.)
To find their targets, the Iranians will need to use radar and radio.
And it's a lot easier to kill radar sites and radio transmitters than Silkworm launchers.
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