Iran and Armageddon
Posted by: McQ on Friday, January 06, 2006
As Jon resonably points out in his post about Iran, crazy is indeed a strategy. And it can be leveraged diplomatically if you play your cards right.
But sometimes, crazy is just crazy. And when that is the case, trying to make rational assumptions about an irrational person is, at best, scientific wild-assed guessing.
I'm frankly convinced that Iran has the second problem as it pertains to their new president instead of the first. I think the man is a religious nut. And that makes this a horse of a different color.
Let me point out my reason for such a belief. Last December the Christian Science Monitor had an article about Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. It was entitled "Waiting for the Rapture in Iran", and it was a very detailed look at a fanatic's fanatic in terms of religion.
We need to understand that although rational people would believe that "careless calculators don't generally make it to the top of totalitarian autocracies" as Jon asserted, this totalitarian autocracy is a theocracy. So certain flavors of "careless calculators" have a better chance at rising to the top than do others. I'm of the opinion that Ahmadinejad is one of the exceptions to the rule.
Let's review some of the man's recent activities as an indicator of my point:
He called for the destruction of Israel by saying it should be wiped from the map.
He's denied the Holocaust.
He's taken an extremely hard line on Iran's quest for nuclear power (weapons).
So, you ask, why the change from Mohammad Khatami, the former president of Iran, and his "dialogue of civilizations" and the presumed return of Iran to the international fold to the present arrogant and confrontational style of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad?
His religious beliefs.
Ahamadinejad believes we're in the 'end times' and that the Mahidi (or savior, especially to the Shia sect of Islam) is near.
The Mahdi (Also transliterated as: Mehdi or Mihdi; translated as: guided one), in Islamic eschatology, is the prophesied redeemer of Islam, who will change the world into a perfect society before Yaum al-Qiyamah (the "Day of Resurrection" or the end times).
If you believe we're in the end times, and you believe you're on the right side of it all, why bother with diplomacy or compromise?
"This kind of mentality makes you very strong," says Amir Mohebian, political editor of the conservative Resalat newspaper.
[...]
"If you think these are the last days of the world, and Jesus will come [again], this idea will change all your relations," says Mohebian. "If I think the Mahdi will come in two, three, or four years, why should I be soft? Now is the time to stand strong, to be hard."
Indeed. Other indicators of his belief in the coming of the Mahadi?
The Mahdi's eventual return is an article of faith for Shiite Muslims that taps deeply into Persian consciousness and mystical tradition. Signs began to appear in Tehran three years ago, announcing that "He's Coming." But only a portion of Iranians actively prepare for that moment.
Part of the tradition holds that the Jamkaran mosque was ordered built by the Mahdi himself, during a dream revealed to a "righteous man" some 1,000 years ago. It is here that believers are closest to the Mahdi. Written prayers dropped into the adjacent well (which, local guides point out has no religious basis) are thought by pilgrims to be divinely answered.
Officials deny rumors that Ahmadinejad, as mayor last year, secretly tasked the Tehran City Council with reconfiguring the capital to prepare a suitable route for the Mahdi's return. They also deny that a list of Ahmadinejad's new cabinet members has been dropped into the well - a superstition that even Ayatollah Khomeini, the father of Iran's revolution, refused to associate with.
[...]
Still, an early cabinet decision earmarked $17 million for Jamkaran. And there is talk of building a direct train link from Tehran to the elegant blue-tiled mosque, which lies 65 miles south of the capital, east of the Shiite religious center of Qom.
So do you earmark money for building a road and plan to reconfigure the city of Tehran for the arrival of the Mahadi if you believe he's not coming soon? I'd guess no.
From redressing the gulf between rich and poor in Iran, to challenging the United States and Israel and enhancing Iran's power with nuclear programs, every issue is designed to lay the foundation for the Mahdi's return.
That takes us back to the newpaper editor's point about how this sort of belief would be reflected in the change in Iran's position in relation to the rest of the world. It also has to do with how, given his belief, Ahmadinejad interprets his role in all of this:
Any possibility of détente with the US may also be in jeopardy, if the US-Iran conflict is cast in Mahdaviat terms. That view holds that the US - with quasireligious declarations of transforming the Middle East with democracy and justice, deploying military forces across the region, and developing a new generation of nuclear weapons - is arrogantly trying to assume the role of Mahdi.
A top priority of Ahmadinejad is "to challenge America, which is trying to impose itself as the final salvation of the human being, and insert its unjust state [in the region]," says Mr. Taraghi.
Taraghi says the US is "trying to place itself as the new Mahdi." This may mean no peace with Iran, he adds, "unless America changes its hegemonic ... thinking, doesn't use nuclear weapons, [or] impose its will on other nations."
That's part one. Part two has to do with Iran's role:
That mind-set also hearkens back to the missionary ambition of the newly forged Islamic Republic. "What Ahmadinejad believes is that we have to create a model state based on ... Islamic democracy - to be given to the world," says Hamidreza Taraghi, head of the conservative Islamic Coalition Society. "The ... government accepts this role for themselves."
And what better way to do that than with nuclear arms in your arsenal? Consider this report from the German media:
Iran has bought 18 BM-25 missiles from North Korea which the Islamic Republic wants to transform to extend their range, the German press reported Dec. 16. â€Iran has bought 18 disassembled BM-25 missiles from North Korea with a range of 2,500 kilometers (1,553 miles),†Bild newspaper said, citing a report from the German secret services.
It added that Iran’s ultra conservative President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad wants to have the range of the missiles “extended to 3,500 kilometersâ€. The newspaper said that until now Iran only had Shehab-3 missiles with a range of 1,300 kilometers.
It further cited the secret service report as warning that “with a longer range, and the probability that (Tehran) would try to equip the missiles with nuclear warheads, there is the risk that Iran could strike at Israel and parts of central Europe.†It added that according to the German intelligence services, Iranian experts were already working on fitting the missiles with nuclear warheads.
If you can at least neutralize the nuclear retaliatory threat of the US and others (say by threatening central Europe with a nuclear strike), you can engage in some pretty drastic regional troublemaking. And if your goal is to "give the world" what Iran calls "Islamic democracy", then you recognize some risks must be taken and, if you think the Mahadi is close at hand, you might just be inclined to take those risks.
After all, religiously speaking, what have you to lose?
But few doubt the sincerity of Ahmadinejad's belief. Some point to his seemingly impossible prediction of electoral success, three months before the June vote.
"You will see, on the day of the election, I will be the winner - I have no doubt about it," says political editor Mohebian, quoting those who heard the remarks. "People change, and we can calculate [politically] why he won. But this [gives a] kind of self-confidence," he says. "Mr. Ahmadinejad thinks he has a mission."
And men on missions are the most dangerous. Irrational men are even more dangerous, especially if they have nuclear weapons.
http://www.qando.net/details.aspx?Entry=3203