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Dow slumps triple digits as Treasury yield curve inverts (recession indicator)
MarketWatch.com (by Dow Jones) ^
| 12/27/05
| Tomi Kilgore
Posted on 12/27/2005 1:36:38 PM PST by SierraWasp
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To: antaresequity
When you guys are saying 'this market sucks', 'I think I will short some stock', 'I am going to get some more Puts'...I know it will be time to reverse...This bull could be wrong, but I'm loving the dropping energy prices. Yes, the bond market is a bit disconcerting...
61
posted on
12/27/2005 3:16:55 PM PST
by
NeoCaveman
(If we ever banned air conditioning, I think people would move back, - Bob Bennet Ohio GOP)
To: SierraWasp
It might indicate that investors expect a recession, because interest rates typically go down in a recession. But all it really indicates is that investors think interest rates will be lower in the future. It does not suggest WHY they think that. And there are lots of reasons why interest rates can go down besides a recession.
To: ex-Texan
The bubble just popped in Boston.I'd dump the homebuilders, the REIT's, and energy. Tech looks good to me for the first time in 5 years, and then there is also always health care. It's probably time, or past time, for sector rotation.
63
posted on
12/27/2005 3:19:15 PM PST
by
NeoCaveman
(If we ever banned air conditioning, I think people would move back, - Bob Bennet Ohio GOP)
To: SolidSupplySide; Mase
"I assert that there was an inverted yield curve in December 1988, and no recession."Then, if your assertion is correct, what in the heck is wrong with these (bleepin) financial newswriters that they missed a biggie like that??? Splain that to me, will ya?
Also, I didn't see any reference to the 2% rule someone posted upstream on this thread.
64
posted on
12/27/2005 3:20:56 PM PST
by
SierraWasp
(EnvironMentalism... America's establishment of it's new unconstitutional State Religion!!!)
To: dubyaismypresident
Thank the Fed. If they hadn't overreached in their raising of short term rates, there wouldn't be a yield curve inversion. You're right. Greenspan thinks he knows better than the markets. But most people have been brainwashed to think that the private sector causes recessions. You know, when it produces too much, hires too many people, and gives too many raises. All horrible things according to Greenspan. And it is called a business cycle, not a Federal Reserve cycle.
65
posted on
12/27/2005 3:21:28 PM PST
by
Moonman62
(Federal creed: If it moves tax it. If it keeps moving regulate it. If it stops moving subsidize it)
To: ex-Texan
"Over 800,000 real estate related jobs are at risk; if they are lost when the real estate bubble collapses, watch out."
Well, there's always section eight housing.
To: SierraWasp
The Dow ($INDU) slumped 105 points to an unofficial close of 10,778, its lowest close in 2 weeks and the biggest one-day point loss since Oct. 27. WOW! And right after Christmas??
To: Arizona Carolyn
You got it! They did the same thing in 2000 and brought on the Clinton Recession that President Bush inherited and was blamed for -- after-wards Greenspan admitted they were too aggressive and what does he do? He does it all over again. GWB made Greenspan's blunder far worse. The first thing he should have done was hold Greenspan accountable and asked for his resignation. Greenspan even offered it in his own obtuse way.
68
posted on
12/27/2005 3:24:03 PM PST
by
Moonman62
(Federal creed: If it moves tax it. If it keeps moving regulate it. If it stops moving subsidize it)
To: mhx
I think it's more of an indicator that the increases in interest rates are going to stop.They'd better. Or they can kiss any recovery good bye.
To: Moonman62; All
70
posted on
12/27/2005 3:25:06 PM PST
by
antaresequity
((PUSH 1 FOR ENGLISH, PUSH 2 TO BE DEPORTED))
To: ex-Texan
Watch the news very closely. Over 800,000 real estate related jobs are at riskMost of the people that got their RE license in the past two years never had any homes to sell.
I know two that got their licenses in CA in the past two years, and went back to their old jobs due to the fact that there are not that many homes for sale, and they never were able to get any sales contracts of their own.
To: SolidSupplySide
Take into account the time of year and thin trading.
72
posted on
12/27/2005 3:27:58 PM PST
by
nickcarraway
(I'm Only Alive, Because a Judge Hasn't Ruled I Should Die...)
To: Brilliant
Plus, all of the Asian money in our Treasury market is keeping the long end of the curve down. Until there is demand from investors to increase those rates, we won't see them rise. This is good news for our mortgage market.
I just hope the Fed stops raising short-term rates soon, and it looks like they will.
73
posted on
12/27/2005 3:29:08 PM PST
by
VegasCowboy
("...he wore his gun outside his pants, for all the honest world to feel.")
To: SierraWasp
Greenspan pulling his usual stunt to create a recession just before an election when Pubbies are the incumbents.
74
posted on
12/27/2005 3:30:13 PM PST
by
BnBlFlag
(Deo Vindice/Semper Fidelis)
To: dubyaismypresident; durasell
For the record, I was joking when I said 'Time to panic'.
75
posted on
12/27/2005 3:32:20 PM PST
by
Recovering_Democrat
(I am SO glad to no longer be associated with the party of Dependence on Government!)
To: SolidSupplySide
76
posted on
12/27/2005 3:32:59 PM PST
by
SierraWasp
(EnvironMentalism... America's establishment of it's new unconstitutional State Religion!!!)
To: Moonman62
I love our President, but his one great strength is also one of his failings -- he seem incapable of firing people or asking/accepting resignations... I would be quite happy if he overcame this early in his administration and had fired Greenspan (whom I loathe).
To: Cyber Liberty
Could you please be just a wee bit more adamant?
78
posted on
12/27/2005 3:34:08 PM PST
by
SierraWasp
(EnvironMentalism... America's establishment of it's new unconstitutional State Religion!!!)
To: antaresequity
Not gonna happen sour pickle.
79
posted on
12/27/2005 3:34:40 PM PST
by
xcamel
(a system poltergeist stole it.)
To: Recovering_Democrat
For the record, I was joking when I said 'Time to panic'.Now if you had said "We're doomed" then there would be no doubt, lol.
80
posted on
12/27/2005 3:34:47 PM PST
by
NeoCaveman
(If we ever banned air conditioning, I think people would move back, - Bob Bennet Ohio GOP)
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