Iran Readying For Conflict With Us

Arab News via Benador Associates ^ | September 17, 2005 | Amir Taheri

[strategofr]

"It takes YEARS to develop new concepts like this, the Israelis only have until next march to be ready to take on the iranians, if that."

Good post.

Let's not compress the timeline too far. The Iranians have technical problems too. The world won't end the first time they produce a single nuclear weapon.

I don't buy the idea that these Iranian leaders want to commit suicide, albeit they like using others who do.

I suspect there is little more time in this whole situation than people are thinking.

In addition, the US seems to be moving out of its famous "ostrich" defense posture.

The team of the US and Israel is not one I would like to be playing against.

[rjp2005]

Why is everyone drawing up these silly invasion of Iran scenarios - the war between us and Iran is being fought right now in IRAQ!!

Here's a more likely scenario:

1. Iran gets referred to Security Council - China and Russia reject it, pissing US off and causing EU to whine more.

2. Okay we say, then we're going to continue to build a joint missle defense system (which will protect most of ungrateful Europe)in Poland, which pisses Russia off - too bad Putin.

2. EU, still issuing condemnations, figures it can gain ground against Iran by accepting two-faced Turkey into the fold. EU drops protests and requirements for Turkey to make human rights reforms and lets them waltz in.

3. Bush keeps full troops in Iraq until the day he leaves office. A Democrat wins the next election, and the day that person enters office, all the troops come home (exaggerating, but you get the idea).

4. Iraq becomes a puppet state, and from Syria to western Iran you now how a three nation bloc of terror regimes. Soon Saudi Arabia falls and Turkey's dual-allegiance to EU and Islam drags EU into conflict with middle east.

Bottom line is next president will not be as steadfast as Bush, which Iran is waiting for. And for his remaining two years, the President seems content to pass the issue off to Europe and the next president, probably focusing on aggressive intelligence gathering of these 350 sites in conjuction with Mossad.

[timer]

Yes, after 9/11 it has become obvious that going after the bad guys instead of being fearful of losing even one soldier to these criminals is "ostrich" thinking. Think : you've got some 150,000 os so troops in iraq/afganistan, what would be the traffic fatality rate of the same # of guys driving america's highways in the same time frame? Thus you're actually SAFER in a shooting war over there than on the highways here, but you'll never hear that from the liberal press, will you? Still though, these iranian crazies are dangerous. Purging the iranian gov't of moderates is eerily similar to hitler in the 1930's. He was thought of as small potatoes at the time by these same liberal peaceniks in the US. What do they say about history repeating itself? Thus a HOT ROD missile would solve the problem, IF it can be developed in time...

[fragrant abuse]

"Let's not compress the timeline too far. The Iranians have technical problems too. The world won't end the first time they produce a single nuclear weapon.

I don't buy the idea that these Iranian leaders want to commit suicide, albeit they like using others who do.

I suspect there is little more time in this whole situation than people are thinking."

Smart post.

Things seem to be moving quickly with regard to Iran in recent weeks but I suspect you are right. We have more time than many realise. It gives Iran time to move closer to nukes, but we are on a faster track to stability in Iraq than they are to getting functioning nuclear weapons.

I too don't buy the idea that Ahmednejab is a suicidal lunatic. Like you say, these f***ers are happy to send teenagers off to kill themselves for Islam but they're not too keen on doing it themselves.

I think he's out to shore up his power base and can be dealt with as long we don't blink.

[strategofr]

" "ostrich" thinking"

I'm thinking specifically of the Iran problem when I say this, and a desire to "flee" unpleasant thoughts.

Fortunately, I think its changing.

[timer]

Iran is a bit different than Iraq. There they've had a long history of moderation. The Shah was something like saddam but they overthrew him from within. Also, the young people want to join the modern world, not descend back into the cruelty and ignorance of the middle ages. Thus we've got a large percentage of the native iranian population FOR us, they don't like the crazies anymore than we do. That's why GWB and the europeans are trying the diplomatic approach, but GWB is the only one with cahones, the europeans lost theirs long ago. He's hoping the Iranian moderates can turn the tide there, which is why this "hitler" is going after them, he FEARS them, esp as VOTERS. Thus there's a lot going on behind the scenes in Iran that we don't know about, but if the mullahs DO get their nucs it'll be hellsapoppin there, probably syria too. "These are the times that try men's souls" is applicable to Iranian and Syrian moderates right now...Iraq is next door to them, the historic events going on there is close, very close to them....