Iraqi WMD Debate and Intelligence: the Links to Libya

Defense & Foreign Affairs Daily ^ | January 30, 2004 | Gregory R. Copley

[Fedora]

Thanks--hadn't seen that one.

Here's a link I was trying to remember before that's worth reading:

---

A History of Ballistic Missile Development in the DPRK

Joseph S. Bermudez Jr.

View this document as a PDF file (255k).

---

CONTENTS

Copyright © Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., 1999.

Foreword

by Timothy V. McCarthy

Introduction

Early Developments, 1960-1979

PRC Assistance

Establishment of a Ballistic Missile Program

FROG-5 (Luna-2) and FROG-7B (Luna-M)

HQ-2/SA-2 Surface-to-Surface Missile (SSM)

DF-61

Other Missile Systems

First Ballistic Missiles, 1979-1989

R-17E (a.k.a., Scud B)

Hwasong 5 Prototype (a.k.a., Scud Mod. A)

Hwasong 5 (a.k.a., Scud Mod. B, Scud B)

Foreign Assistance and Cooperation

Other Missile-Related Developments

Longer Range Designs, 1989-Present

Reorganization of the Missile Program

Hwasong 6 (a.k.a. Scud Mod. C, Scud C, Scud PIP)

Foreign Developments

No-dong (a.k.a., No-dong 1, Rodong 1, Scud Mod. D, Scud D)

Pakistan’s Ghauri (Hatf V) and Ghauri 2

Iran’s Shebab 3

Egypt, Libya, and Syria

Taep’o-dong 1 (a.k.a., No-dong 2, Rodong 2, Scud Mod. E, Scud X),

Taep’o-dong 1 SLV, Taep’o-dong 2 (a.k.a., No-dong 3)

Other Missile Systems

Conclusion (and Notes)

[Fedora]

From the section in that link titled "Egypt, Libya, and Syria":

Egypt, Libya, and Syria

Throughout the 1990s, there have been reports that Egypt, Libya, and Syria have been interested in obtaining or producing the No-dong. To date, there are no known sales of complete missile systems to any of the three countries.

Egypt’s involvement in the No-dong program is believed to be limited to the acquisition of No-dong-related technology or components. It continues to cooperate with the DPRK in a broad range of ballistic missile development activities. For example, in July 1999, the DPRK shipped Egypt specialty steel—with missile applications—through a PRC company in Hong Kong. Meanwhile, missile technicians continue to travel between the two countries.(140)

Although Syria appears to be satisfied with its current Hwasong 6 capabilities, it is believed that Damascus would also like to obtain a small number of No-dong missiles. The 1996 visit to the DPRK by a delegation of Syrian missile technicians, while primarily concerned with the Hwasong 6 program, may also have been related to Syrian interest in the No-dong.(141)

Libya has probably received No-dong components and technology. There have also been reports indicating the development of a joint DPRK-Libyan missile test facility in Libya. This, however, remains to be verified.(142)

Notes:

(140) Author interview data; and Gertz, “North Korea Continues to Develop Missiles.”

(141) “Better firepower for Syria's Assad,” p. 20.

(142) Author interview data; Bill Gertz, “China Assists Iran, Libya on Missiles,” Washington Times, June 16, 1998, p. A1; Gertz, “N. Korea as Nuclear Exporter?” p. A1; Gertz, “Libya May Buy N. Korean Missiles,” p. A4; Elmar Guseynov, “Scuds Known and Loved in the Gulf,” Izvestiya, November 13, 1993, p. 3, in FBIS-SOV-93-218 (November 15, 1993), p. 27; and Murat Yetkin, “Possible Missile Threat From Middle East Neighbors Detailed,” Turkish Daily News, July 30,1993, pp. 1, 11, in JPRS-TND-93-026 (August 10, 1993).

[ravingnutter]

From a previous post by piasa:

FEBRUARY 1999 : (NIGER : IRAQ'S FORMER AMBASSADOR TO THE VATICAN AL-ZAHAWIE VISITS NIAMEY, NIGER'S CAPITOL, WHILE ON A TOUR OF WEST AFRICAN NATIONS, TO INVITE PRESIDENT MAINASSARA TO BAGHDAD) a February 1999 visit to Niamey, Niger's capital, by Wissam al-Zahawie, Iraq's former ambassador to the Vatican. [He later claimed that his] trip had nothing to do with uranium. He was touring four West African nations, he said, and came here to invite Niger's then-President Ibrahim Bare Mainassara to Baghdad. Mainassara was assassinated two months later, and al-Zahawie could not be reached for comment about their talks. - "A look at the U.S.-British claims that Iraq tried to acquire uranium in Africa," AP, SEPT 21, 2003

From a previous post by Fedora:

In 1999, French intelligence had begun investigating the security of uranium supplies in Niger, where uranium production was controlled by a consortium led by the French mining company COGEMA, a division of the French state-owned nuclear energy firm AREVA. At that time, Italian businessman Rocco Martino provided French intelligence with genuine documents revealing that Iraq was planning to expand trade with Niger. French intelligence took an interest in the documents and asked Martino to provide more information. In 2000 he used a contact in the Niger embassy in Rome to provide French intelligence with documents purporting that Iraq had purchased uranium from Niger. These documents were later exposed as forgeries;

< snip >

Since it is now also known that French intelligence was trying to push Martino’s forgeries on US and British intelligence, as simultaneously the Democratic National Committee was planning to discredit President Bush’s Iraq policy by accusing his administration of manufacturing evidence against Hussein’s regime, heightened suspicion is cast on Wilson’s use of the Niger investigation to discredit the Bush administration’s case for war.

What Wilson Didn’t Say About Africa

[ravingnutter]

From your last link:

Based on this bootleg FT excerpt, Libya had 2,600 tons of yellowcake from Niger, even though the COGEMA records and controls in which Joe Wilson put such faith showed only 1,500 tons had been shipped from Niger to Libya.

Here is the missing piece of the puzzle they were looking for:

Iraq and four other countries were attempting to purchase uranium from Niger as far back as 1999, European intelligence officials told the Financial Times. The unidentified sources told the newspaper illicit sales were being negotiated at least three years before last year's U.S.-led invasion.

They said between 1999 and 2001, uranium smugglers planned to sell the ore or refined ore called yellow cake, to Iran, Libya, China, North Korea and Iraq.

An official said meetings between Niger officials and would-be buyers from the five countries were held in several European countries. Intelligence officers were convinced that the uranium would be smuggled from abandoned mines in Niger, circumventing official export controls.

Washington Times

European intelligence officers have now revealed that three years before the fake documents became public, human and electronic intelligence sources from a number of countries picked up repeated discussion of an illicit trade in uranium from Niger. One of the customers discussed by the traders was Iraq.

Information gathered in 1999-2001 suggested that the uranium sold illicitly would be extracted from mines in Niger that had been abandoned as uneconomic by the two French-owned mining companies-Cominak and Somair, both of which are owned by the mining giant Cogema-operating in Niger.

"Mines can be abandoned by Cogema when they become unproductive. This doesn't mean that people near the mines can't keep on extracting," a senior European counter-proliferation official said.

Human Events

[popdonnelly]

You make a very good point. Iran wouldn't deal with Iraq, but they'd be much more likely to deal with Libya.

[Fedora]

Thanks! There is some great information there--puts some things together.

[Logical me]

"I still think that is what Qadafi gave up when he turned over his nuke program. He had the hot potato in his lap and didn't want it any more."

Exactly right. When Qadafi seen what happened to Iraq and things were getting warm, he gave it up. Look at some of the changes in the region. The pressure needs to be kept up.

[MilleniumBug]

Everyone has heard about the break-in at the Nigerean embassy in Rome:
This story... begins with a burglary--the fifth-floor apartment in No. 10 Via Antonio Baiamonti in Rome’s Mazzini Quarter. The thick steel-plated door defends the offices of the Embassy of Niger. ... On a night sometime between 29 December 2000 and 1 January 2001, the usual “persons unknown” are frantically searching for something, turning the embassy inside-out. Papers are strewn everywhere and file cabinets have been opened. When early on January 2, the Second Secretary for Administrative Affairs, Arfou Mounkaila, reports the theft to the Carabinieri in the Trionfale precinct...
http://nuralcubicle.blogspot.com/2005/07/niger-yellowcake-story-italian-version.html


But the story of a more serious attack on US Embassy personnel in Niger a few days before the Rome breakin is not widely known:
Stars and Stripes
In December, a Marine assigned to protect the American embassy in Niger was shot in the arm during a robbery in the community. A civilian employee was killed in the attack.
http://ww2.pstripes.osd.mil/01/apr01/ed041501i.html


The Military Attaché to the US Embassy in Niamey Assasinated by Men in Turbans, PANA 23 December 2000
http://www.friendsofniger.org/localnews/NewsArchives.htm


Master Sergeant William W Bultmeier, USA, Ret.Defense Attache Office, Niamey11 February 1949 - 23 December 2000
William W. Bultmeier was killed during a carjacking in Niamey, Niger on 23 December 2000. Bultmeier, a retired U.S. Army master sergeant, was leaving a restaurant with embassy staff members when the attack took place. A U.S. Marine staff sergeant was also wounded in the incident. Mr. Bultmeier had been in Niger since July 2000 serving as the Defense Attaché System (DAS) Operations Coordinator establishing a new Defense Attaché Office in Niger. Officials stated that the attack was not politically motivated and appeared to be a random act of violence aimed at the theft of Bultmeier’s four-wheel-drive vehicle.Sergeant Bultmeier was born in Ft. Wayne, Indiana. He entered the U.S. Army in May 1967 and served as an attack helicopter door gunner in Vietnam. After a break in service to attend St. Francis College in Indiana, he rejoined the U.S. Army in July 1971 and served in a variety of assignments in trouble spots around the world. During the 1980s, Sergeant Bultmeier served as an operations coordinator in U. S. Defense Attaché Offices (USDAOs) in Brazil, Finland, and Mozambique. After retirement in 1990, He served as a civilian with the Department of State at American embassies in Greece, Hungary, and Mauritania. He returned to the DAS in May 1999 as a civilian contractor, and had served at the USDAO in Singapore prior to his untimely death in Niamey.
http://www.dia.mil/history/patriots/biographies.html

The attack occurrred on U.S. embassy staff while en route to the US Embassy in Niamey, Niger.  But the articles do not exclude the possibility that the Embassy itself might have been entered.  And materials may have been stolen from embassy personnel during the "carjacking".

[ravingnutter]

Also reported by nuralcubicle was that Italian Intelligence was eavesdropping on Niger Ambassador Adamou Chekou, who was in charge at the Embassy when the break-in and forgeries occurred, and Wissam al-Zahawiah, Iraqi Ambassador to the Holy See and it seems they discovered their "hotline". That's why I suspect Vincent Cannistraro's involvement in this, he's a security advisor at the Vatican and a Joe Wilson defender.

In a Seymour Hersch article, Cannistraro and another unnamed agent state the exact route the documents took and Cannistraro actually admits that he called the CIA about the documents before they were proven to be false. This begs the question...just how did Cannistraro know about the documents before they were vetted? Sounds a whole lot like Wilson's slip-up about seeing the documents.

al Zahawie was also apparently clairvoyant:

JANUARY 2003 : (AL ZAHAWIE, "RETIRED IN JORDAN" - IS RECALLED BACK TO BAGHDAD, IRAQ; HE IS TAKEN TO MEET UN WEAPONS INSPECTORS) But last January, al-Zahawie was summoned back to Baghdad for what he had expected would be a request to help Iraq's Foreign Service plan for deputy prime minister Tariq Aziz's planned visit to the Vatican. Instead, upon landing in Baghdad, al-Zahawie was taken to meet with UN weapons inspectors. Five inspectors interviewed him in a 90-minute session, he says.

"They asked why I went [to Niger], why I was chosen, when I left Rome and whether there were any other Iraqi diplomats at the Vatican," he says. "But then they asked who had the seal of the embassy and where I had left it." That's when al-Zahawie got wind of some kind of foul play. Italy had handed over cables from al-Zahawie to the Niger government announcing the trip, and other documents had pointed to his presence in Niger. But the inspectors were particularly interested in a July 6, 2000, document bearing al-Zahawie's signature, concerning a proposed uranium transaction. The inspectors refused to show him the letter, he says, but al-Zahawie was sure he had never written it. "If they had such a letter, it had to have been a forgery," he says. The tell-tale signs of the forgery were quite obvious, he stresses. [* My note: How would he know the 'tell-tale sign' if they refused to show the letters to him? Shades of Joe Wilson's foreknowledge of the docs?]

[Just mythoughts]

bttt

[piasa]

New info ping.

[piasa]

Wasn't Cannistraro involved in helping ABC get their interview of bin Laden back in the 1990s?

I remember Ollie North saying something about the media who had once had interviews of bin Laden refusing to cooperate with post-911 investigators.

[Fedora]

Thanks!

Re #32, I'd have to look that up, but Cannistraro does consult for ABC so that sounds likely. Back then Cannistraro was emphasizing Bin Laden's links to Saddam Hussein, before he did a 180 on that in 2002.

[operation clinton cleanup]

Mauritania? First I have heard that name thrown into the mix.

Interesting stuff here:

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/mr.html

Independent from France in 1960, Mauritania annexed the southern third of the former Spanish Sahara (now Western Sahara) in 1976, but relinquished it after three years of raids by the Polisario guerrilla front seeking independence for the territory. Maaouya Ould Sid Ahmed TAYA siezed power in a coup in 1984. Opposition parties were legalized and a new constitution approved in 1991. Two multiparty presidential elections since then were widely seen as flawed, but October 2001 legislative and municipal elections were generally free and open. A bloodless coup in August 2005 deposed President TAYA and ushered in a military council headed by Col. Ely Ould Mohamed VALL, which declared it would remain in power for up to two years while it created conditions for genuine democratic institutions. For now, however, Mauritania remains, a one-party state. The country continues to experience ethnic tensions between its black population and the Maur (Arab-Berber) populace.

[ravingnutter]

Sorry for not responding sooner...trying to finish up the Christmas shopping on-line : )

Vince Cannistraro escorted ABC reporter John Miller to his 1998 interview with bin Laden. Cannistraro, at the time, also worked for ABC News as an analyst.

[Steve_Seattle]

This is all very interesting, and it all seems credible to a non-expert like me, but what exactly is the GIS and how do they get their information? And if any of this is true, why aren't we hearing about it anywhere else? Because the MSM is stuck on stupid?

[Steve_Seattle]

"Dr el-Baradei and others claimed, following the announcement by Qadhafi, that the WMD programs were at least five years away from being able to produce a nuclear weapon."

And if we hadn't acted in Iraq, they'd now only be three years away, just in time to coincide with a probable Democratic administration.

[SBD1]

Professional Intelligence, Data and Analysis, Updated Daily

The Global Information System (GIS) is a global-coverage, core current strategic intelligence service for use only by governments. It is not available to non-governmental subscribers. GIS represents a base of more than 150,000 pages of data and images on 246 countries and territories, updated daily, along with a constantly-growing database of special reports on a wide range of specialist topics and regional studies.

GIS includes the Defense & Foreign Affairs Daily intelligence briefing, which is issued five days a week, and covers current strategic intelligence issues.

GIS content is issued as "Unclassified". However, it is based on GIS' own worldwide collection (HUMINT) and analysis team, which has been operating in the field for more than three decades. As a result, it has a strong record of major intelligence "firsts", including the accurate forecasting of, for example, the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. This was only one of hundreds of major successes by GIS.

GIS is accessible only through password entry or computer IP recognition, to ensure maximum privacy. The system is fully on-line through the Internet, and keyword searchable. It is strenuously non-partisan, given that it provides product for use by governments worldwide. Its confidential data, intelligence and analysis system was built up since 1972 for professional use by senior policymakers, intelligence officials and military research establishments worldwide. The system is based on intelligence and analysis undertaken as a result of massive field collection (HUMINT); and on extensive research and analysis, using primary and open sources intelligence (OSINT), including considerable "open-but-difficult source" OSINT. The System is designed to provide a comprehensive global data system both for governments without extensive global collection and analysis systems as well as for analysts in industrialized states seeking independent, finished intelligence on literally every country and territory in the world.

The use of GIS product can often verify product produced within a classified environment. As a result, governments can more easily refer to GIS reporting — because it is unclassified — which is more "portable", and not subject to the transmission constraints of classified data.

The Global Information System is timely, current — updated daily throughout the year — strategic intelligence on literally every country and territory in the world. The country or territory aspect of the GIS system is divided into country-specific chapters, each of which include the following sub-sections:

The Government: Full cabinet and ministerial listings of every government; Comprehensive breakdown of national political and governmental structure; Detailed descriptions of political parties, party leaders and orientations; Details of past and upcoming elections; judicial system details.
The Country: A national map and an illustration of the national flag; Detailed national history; Recent and current strategic and political developments; National demographic and population data, including religions and languages.
The Economy: Comprehensive national economic breakdown; Detailed media and communications structure; Detailed national infrastructural and industrial data.
National Security: Strategic defense overview and background; Defense structural breakdown; Defense budget data; Defense manpower data and manpower availability; Defense personnel and key officers; Defense ministry or department contact addresses, etc.; National nuclear, chemical and biological warfare capabilities and resources; Detailed Army, Navy and Air Force battle orders; Details of paramilitary organizations, deployment and basing, equipment, etc.; Intelligence agencies; Major insurgency groups.
Diplomatic: Treaties and alliances; Key embassy contact details.
Special reports: Detailed analysis on current strategic issues related to the country or the region. The Special Reports contain special studies on a particular aspect of the strategic situation relating to the country in question, or its region.

These sections are further broken down to provide very specific data on everything from influential movements within a country to specifics about civil infrastructure, such as airfields, telecommunications, and so on.

The GIS Special Studies, however, extend well beyond country studies, to include, among other things, sections on:

• Biographies of key leaders and officials worldwide;

• Background files on terrorist groups;

• Weapons systems files (with exceptionally detailed and original records of military aircraft, ships, vehicles, weapons, ballistic systems, etc.);

• Special topical studies sections, with major studies on, for example: intelligence management, terrorism, psychological strategy, information warfare, military medical issues; defense industrial listings (of defense manufacturers worldwide); current and archival tables of arms transfers between countries; tables of recent and archival changes of governments worldwide; studies on strategic resource issues (water, health, etc.);

• Current regional studies (Balkan conflict issues; Eastern Mediterranean studies ; Asian studies; Australasian and Oceania issues; African studies, etc.);

• Special studies in peacekeeping and conflict resolution; and much more.

[SBD1]

GADDAFI EXTENDS INFLUENCE WITH OIL DEAL The Times September 14, 2002

Copyright 2002 Financial Times Information
All rights reserved
Global News Wire - Europe Intelligence Wire 
Copyright 2002 The Times  
The Times
September 14, 2002
LENGTH: 466 words

HEADLINE: GADDAFI EXTENDS INFLUENCE WITH OIL DEAL

BYLINE: Daniel McGrory

BODY:


WITH a flick of his pen, Colonel Muammar Gaddafi has taken another step to becoming the richest and most powerful leader in Africa.

The Libyan dictator is reported to have signed a lucrative deal with the Central African Republic giving him the sole right to exploit oil and mineral resources for 99 years. The colonel has been secretly negotiating for months with the republic, which is rich in gold, diamond, oil and uranium.

Revelations of the colonel's latest monopoly deal came as the Libyan regime renewed its $ 360 million (Pounds 230 million) contract to supply Zimbabwe with oil in exchange for a massive stake in the nation's main assets.

Neighbouring governments are perturbed at the colonel's takeovers, complaining that the continent's most valuable resources are being bought on the cheap. The West is monitoring the acquisitions closely.

Colonel Gaddafi's officials in Tripoli say that this is simply his way of supporting his African brothers, using Libya's oil money to bail them out.Western diplomats believe that it is a blatant attempt to buy votes and influence countries in the proposed African Union. One senior envoy described it as the colonel's "new colonisation of Africa".

Gail Wannenburg, of the South Africa Institute for International Affairs, said: "Colonel Gaddafi is buying favours. He wants to dominate the new African Union and during his recent trip across southern Africa he was handing out money left, right and centre."

The colonel has reportedly taken a stake in Mozambique's oil infrastructure, made investments in Namibia and Malawi that have yet to be fully revealed, as well as increasing his stake in Zimbabwe. "He is also reported to be paying off the debts of up to ten countries and will pay their dues to this new union, which he wants based in Tripoli," Ms Wannenburg said. "There will be economic benefits, but the priority is influence."

The deal with the war-torn Central African Republic comes a year after Libyan troops crushed an army revolt and is seen as a reward for ensuring that President Patasse stays in power. Libyan units remain to protect the President.

In the capital, Bangui, Andre Nalke Dorogo, the Minister of Mines, said yesterday that the agreement with Libya had been signed in June. It is a snub to the French interests that have dominated its former colony since independence in 1960. France withdrew its troops in 1998 after helping to control a series of mutinies.

Mr Dorogo said that the republic would benefit from the taxes paid by the Societe Africaine Libyenne d'Investissement, which was created to oversee exploration of resources.

Paul Bellet, the main opposition leader, said he was angry that this deal had not been approved by parliament and it could not stand until it was.

JOURNAL-CODE: FTMS

LOAD-DATE: September 16, 2002

[Steve_Seattle]

Thanks very much. Where does the funding come from - government subscribers?