Posted on 10/30/2005 11:04:36 AM PST by Dundee
They are not competitors. Russia produces oil and China manufactures. China already has a lot of unpopulated land and does not need the land Russia has. China has a population density lower than Europe if you include the land that is unpopulated. Russia has better nukes than China. There is just no reason for war.
Italy has the lowest birth rate on the planet.
Go figure.
It has to do with money, I'm told.
The problem is, a declining population usually means a declining economy which means a further decline in population, etc.
Everyone likes to bash immigration to the US. But immigration means GDP growth.
Nearing two billion people, with limited oil, you can see no reason China might want to expand????
I suspect China will end up with a lot of Siberia.
Russia also has a lot of oil as well. If we were smart, we'd help Russia by buying their oil and make 'ol Vlad understand that we're not too happy about them arming our enemies. Make no mistake, I think Vlad wants to resurrect their past greatness by repackaging communism but with himself firmly in charge. You could say that by buying their oil we're extending their lifespan and would allow them to do exactly that. But, if in their death throes they think they have nothing to lose, they will trade their nuclear knowledge, material and warheads for a chance to just postpone the inevitable for a day.
We need to give Vlad the opportunity to save Russia with our help but he has to make a commitment to NOT arm or help our enemies. It might also help if he realizes that our enemies (radical Islam) are his enemies.
Excellent post. Thanks!
There is one large slice of Siberia that China has never recognized as being Russian.<p.
Difficult to see how the Russia/China thing will play out.
This is an old story I read in the Atlantic Monthly years ago, I think by Robert Kaplan if I remember right.
Predicting the future that far out is plain silly. All it takes is one inspirational leader to turn a country on a dime.
The left over commies are a drag on Russia. I don't expect any of them acquired a work ethic since Glastnos and Perestroika. Once the commies die out, and that capitalism shows that it rewards those that work, I think the downward spiral in Russia sill stop. Given its natural resources and intellectual capital, it may even rise up as the strongman of Eurasia.
Steyn is also silly to think Islam is going to carve up Russia. The whole of Islam still can't rid itself of 6,000,000 or so Jews.
Frankly, I have no problem with Putin.
He is for Russia. He is for not letting the oligarchs steal the wealth of his country. He is for restoring the dignity of a nation that is reduced to being the prime supplier of cheap white female flesh. Yelstin era democracy failed and failed miserably. Russia needs a period of authoritarianism to get itself together.
There is a natural bent to authoritarianism in the Russian historical narrative. I remember Stalin's 1930 speech in which he described Russian history as a long, long list of beatings she suffered for her backwardness. In the Russian national memory is the tale of the terrible defeat by the Mongols at the battle of the Khalka, a defeat that doomed Kievan Russia, a defeat suffered because the Russian side did not have a single strong leader capable of imposing unity of command upon the proud, quarrelsome boyars. Kievan Rus did not have a Czar.
Socialism has to be outlawed. It leads to this suicidal tendency wherever it raises its ugly head. We see it right here in America. Democrats (our socialists) won't fight islamicists either.
Our Russian roommate says the the birthrate of Russia is beginning to grow by tiny fractions. At the hospital where she worked the number rises by 10 or 15 births on average above the previous years average.
Another thing that's going on seemingly unnoticed is a migration out of the cities. Along with the migration to the country there has been a resurgence of birthing by midwife and those children often go uncounted for a few years.
While I agree with Steyn that Russia is the modern day "Sick Man of Europe", I wouldn't write them off so quickly. Napoleon and Hitler found that out the hard way, and I think the Islamofascists in Iran will find out soon enough, that you can never conquer that much territory and hold it against a determined foe, and Russians are very determined when you mess with their turf.
Anybody who thinks they'll just up and give up their home turf(not counting the SSR's ending in "stan") need only look at how long they've been fighting the Chechnyans. It's not a great example of how to run a counter-insurgency campaign, but it demonstrates that they can, and will fight if aroused. And nobody will convince me that some of those SS-20's are whatever don't still work....
I actually met one of these Russian mail-order brides "in waiting" working at a bar in New Orleans a few years ago. Stunningly beautiful. My frat brother tried desperately to get her phone number, but she ignored him because I had a few extra bucks of cash on hand and know a few Russian words. She was hitting on me till we left the place. I realize it's hard for those girls, but what she did was bordering on being what some harlot does in a bordello...
I tend to agree. I love Steyn and he is right that many things in Russia are bad and getting worse. But things are simultaneously getting better in other areas. Obviously many Russkies are still in shock over the death of communism and there appears to be a tremendous loss of confidence in their country. But that trend might change as the country gets richer and continues to interact with the western countries. I agree, don't count out Russia yet.
V.Putin was a full Colonel of the KGB he was stationed in East Germany running spies against the west. This man is no fool & those who think that he is looking out for anything but what he percieves to be in his own interests are fools of the earth shaking variety .
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