Posted on 10/04/2005 8:22:43 PM PDT by FairOpinion
Completed Precincts: 268 of 268
JOHN CAMPBELL (REP) 36640 46.0%
MARILYN C. BREWER (REP) 13272 16.7%
JIM GILCHRIST (AI) 11490 14.4%
BTW, I checked out his J. Scott Davis' 'website'. First, his Yahoo group thing, is a fanclub to himself. Not surprising, he's an ACTOR! OR, at least, CLAIMS to be an actor. So, this led me to his personal website. I checked out his resume to see what this 'actor' has been in. What has he been in? "Miss Madison". What's Miss Madison? Haven't a clue. Not even sure it is a real movie! And even if I did (and it was real), I would be looking for...'Spectator'! Oh yeah, a big part. He's also been (supposively) on a radio show doing a Star Wars spoof.
Oh, and he's looking at producing a show called..."Venice Beach Vice".
Talk about a qualified candidate right here!
To be fair to him, he also claims to be a verteran of the Persian Gulf War. Though how true it is, (any of this!) is questionable. And he claims that he's the most downloaded "Ocean Beach Lifeguard" and "US Navy Surface Rescue Swimmer". Um...yeah.
Did ya download any pics? (ROFL! just kiddin!)
LOl Miss Madison and Venice BEach Vice sound like they could be porn films maybe he is in that industry. If he is he must really suck if all you can get is a spectator spot in a porn film
The demo's total looks awfully low, and accountant gilchrist is against the repeal of the death tax.
Miss madison:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0239649/
I remember him telling me how great a candidate mccain would be for president.
I told him that since he was new here, maybe he'd want to get a better read of the board before he touts mcvain to the conservatives he's trying to get him to support for congress.
Of course, I was told by him that everyone here absolutely LOVES mccain, and I didn't know what I'm talking about.
Registration and Turnout Completed Precincts: 268 of 268
Reg/Turnout Percentage Total Registered Voters 402006 Precinct Registration 402006 Precinct Ballots Cast 31959 7.9% Early Ballots Cast 962 0.2% Absentee Ballots Cast 47440 11.8% Total Ballots Cast 80361 20.0%
UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 48th District
Vote Count Percentage JOHN CAMPBELL (REP) 36640 46.0% MARILYN C. BREWER (REP) 13272 16.7% JIM GILCHRIST (AI) 11490 14.4% STEVE YOUNG (DEM) 7110 8.9% JOHN GRAHAM (DEM) 3242 4.1% BEA FOSTER (DEM) 2606 3.3% DON UDALL (REP) 1284 1.6% JOHN KELLY (REP) 955 1.2% BÉA TIRITILLI (GRN) 698 0.9% BRUCE COHEN (LIB) 667 0.8% DAVID R. CROUCH (REP) 455 0.6% SCOTT MACCABE (REP) 353 0.4% MARSHA A. MORRIS (REP) 322 0.4% TOM PALLOW (DEM) 270 0.3% GUY E. MAILLY (REP) 138 0.2% MARSHALL SAMUEL SANDERS (REP) 94 0.1% EDWARD A. SUPPE (REP) 87 0.1%
JMO, and FWIW, seems that Campbell will win the Dec. 6th runoff. Run up to the holiday season and turnout will probably be as low as todays. All Campbell has to do is peel off appx. a third of Stewarts votes and he is over the top.
Gilchrist is getting a lot of the Perot vote, who pulled about 22% in this district in 1992, and maybe 8% in 1996. It is the same cohort. Dems are not voting for Gilchrst. About half or more of the Brewer vote was from Dems. Relatively few Pubbies voted for Brewer apparently.
Who is Stewart?
I'm sorry that should be Brewer.
"How many seats does Orange County have and does that Dem I think her last name is sanchez who replaced B-1 Bob Dornan(whts he been doing lately?) is that in Orange County also."
Orange County's population is about 3 million, which equals about six seats (with some going across into adjacent counties).
Sanchez hails from the central section--least affluent. Most of the county is very affluent, and conservative.
But District 48, this one, is perhaps the most "Republican" of them all. Hence, Campbell runs away with it.
Gilchrist would be wise to stick to the knitting--running the Minutemen operation.
Sadly, forays such as this give statistical proof that Americans don't really want anything done about illegal immigration.
Hmm. From what little info that is there in the movie, I can see where he would be in it (sounds like a low budget 'racing' film with boats). Come to think of it, I think I saw it reviewed on Ebert and Roeper. One of those movies that VERY few people have seen (indy low budget film. The only reason why I remember it on that show was...well, um...because I remember strange things? Hehehe). Him, standing on the side, watching the race, I can see him there... Though I don't know about you, but that sounds like...a role for an extra even for a small film like this one! Hehehe.
Oh, and "Venice Beach Vice", doesn't exist yet. It's something he PLANS on doing, but hasn't gotten there yet.
The greenie will also be on the Dec. 6th ballot I believe.
Well, Gilchrist did extremely well for a third party candidate. He won't win the general though. Though he could still be the spoiler if the Dem gets all the leftist votes (what small percentage it is in that district).
In other words, it is Campbell's to lose.
Yup, there is a greenie. But she (he?) got a whooping 0.9% of the vote. Since she was the only greenie there, she should be in the general election under this system.
JOHN CAMPBELL (REP) 36640 46.0% JIM GILCHRIST (AI) 11490 14.4% STEVE YOUNG (DEM) 7110 8.9% BÉA TIRITILLI (GRN) 698 0.9% BRUCE COHEN (LIB) 667 0.8%
Precinct Ballots Cast 0 0.0% Early Ballots Cast 962 0.2% Absentee Ballots Cast 47440 11.8% Total Ballots Cast 48402 12.0% UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 48th District Vote Count Percentage JOHN CAMPBELL (REP) 24902 51.9% MARILYN C. BREWER (REP) 7242 15.1% STEVE YOUNG (DEM) 4828 10.1% JIM GILCHRIST (AI) 3275 6.8%
Total
Precinct Ballots Cast 31959 7.9% Early Ballots Cast 962 0.2% Absentee Ballots Cast 47440 11.8% Total Ballots Cast 80361 20.0% UNITED STATES REPRESENTATIVE 48th District Vote Count Percentage JOHN CAMPBELL (REP) 36640 46.0% MARILYN C. BREWER (REP) 13272 16.7% JIM GILCHRIST (AI) 11490 14.4% STEVE YOUNG (DEM) 7110 8.9%
Subtracting the numbers to find the results for people who voted at their precincts today,
Campbell got 11738, or 36.7% of people who voted at the precincts, and
Gilchrist got 8215, or 25.7% of people who voted at the precincts.
That is amazing for a 3rd party candidate, and the precinct results are unusually different from the absentee/early vote results.
If the numbers stay this way for the General election, there's no way Gilchrist could "spoil" the election for Campbell and elect a Democrat, as some people have needlessly worried. So, voters who support Gilchrist but want Campbell as their backup can vote their conscience with no qualms in the General Election, although it's also unlikely that Gilchrist will pick up enough of all the other votes to win.
Interesting analysis.
Thanks.
I really doubt that. Democrats got a total of 16.6% including the nominee Young-D, who got 8.9%. Green got 0.9%, and Libertarian got 0.8%. Most of the other candidates were R's.
Total non-R, non-AI support is 18.3% -- not enough to spoil.
Total R support is 67.3%.
If you add all the other candidates' support (including Brewer's) except for Campbell's and Gilchrist's, you get 100% - 46.0% - 14.4% = 39.6% , so it's theoretically possible for Gilchrist to spoil, but it's very unlikely the GOP (and 3rd party) support on the other candidates would all go to the Dem.
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