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What If Iran Gets the Bomb? ((Good Analysis))
Institute for Contemporary Affairs ^ | 29 September 2005 | Ephraim Kam

Posted on 09/28/2005 9:07:12 AM PDT by F14 Pilot

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1 posted on 09/28/2005 9:07:22 AM PDT by F14 Pilot
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To: F14 Pilot

Someone set up us the bomb!


2 posted on 09/28/2005 9:12:19 AM PDT by Zechariah_8_13 (Courage is not simply one of the virtues, but the form of every virtue at the testing point.)
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To: F14 Pilot; doug from upland
Bomb, Bomb, Bomb, Bomb, Bomb Iran
Bomb, Bomb, Bomb, Bomb, Bomb Iran

3 posted on 09/28/2005 9:13:20 AM PDT by Paleo Conservative (France is an example of retrograde chordate evolution.)
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To: F14 Pilot

Iran getting the bomb mean two things:

1. Everyone will be more reluctant to attack Iran
2. Iran losing control to of nuclear material becomes a factor in many possible scenarios.
3. We will need to make it clear that a Nuclear attack on Israel will bring a nuclear response from The united States.

Anything else is speculation.


4 posted on 09/28/2005 9:17:47 AM PDT by gondramB ( There's no way to rule innocent men. The only power any government has is the power to crack down .)
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To: gondramB

4- Any chance of internal uprising will die


5 posted on 09/28/2005 9:18:59 AM PDT by F14 Pilot (Democracy is a process not a product)
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To: Zechariah_8_13
Someone set up us the bomb!

LOL! I thought with only five responses I had a chance to be the first to post that.

6 posted on 09/28/2005 9:22:18 AM PDT by BTHOtu
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To: F14 Pilot

Look..no one is going to do anything so lets assume they will have one.

What we do is wait for them to announce it...OR we wait for one of their famous tacit threats...

Then we turn the whole place into glass....


7 posted on 09/28/2005 9:23:02 AM PDT by samadams2000 (Nothing fills the void of a passing hurricane better than government)
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To: F14 Pilot

"4- Any chance of internal uprising will die"

I'm not so sure about that one - there have been regime changes in countries with Nukes.


8 posted on 09/28/2005 9:28:15 AM PDT by gondramB ( There's no way to rule innocent men. The only power any government has is the power to crack down .)
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To: F14 Pilot
It may be necessary to repeat such an attack two or three times because one attack may not be enough.

Stop thinking coventional...

9 posted on 09/28/2005 9:40:21 AM PDT by JimRed ("Hey, hey, Teddy K., how many girls did you drown today?")
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To: F14 Pilot

Will never happen. Israel and US will never allow it come to that. The sites would be destroyed, by nuclear means if necessary.

And the Iranians know it. The program is far more valuable to them in the "almost complete" state. Then they get to play the North Korean game of "crazy-unpredictable-cripple" in order to extract concessions and to elevate their own importance in international affairs. Look at the North Koreans - a country that would otherwise have importance of Chad, has managed to get all the regional powers to talk to it on the same level.

The Iranians are playing the same game. They'll never make the bomb, because it would have immediate, seriously negative reprecussions. They'll play diplomatic brinkmanship so they get economic concessions. That's it.
Unless, in the fog, someone blinks. And then we might get yet another demonstration what a nuclear detonation looks like above ground.


10 posted on 09/28/2005 9:42:00 AM PDT by farlander
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To: F14 Pilot
This work is a good build up to a disconnected solution...

"At the end of all this I expect a dialogue between Iran and the United States, and a dialogue between Iran and Israel. And if this is to be the case, even if Iran has the bomb by that time, the bomb will have a different meaning."

What has this person been reading to come to this conclusion? I’m not sure how he could’ve written it without reading it at the same time. I'd say the free world has reached a solid understanding of the "Iran" problem and are building a concensus on how to deal with it. For now, what it is lacking is support for tangible solutions. This is ultimately an argument for further appeasement and I couldn't agree less with its analytical results.

In any case... thank you for bringing it to my attention.

11 posted on 09/28/2005 9:46:31 AM PDT by humint (Define the future... but only if you're prepared for war with the soldiers of the past and present!)
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To: F14 Pilot
4- Any chance of internal uprising will die

Soviet Union?!

12 posted on 09/28/2005 9:47:00 AM PDT by Tallguy
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To: Tallguy

Soviet leaders and Mullahs are different!

Mullahs will use nukes against their own people if necessary!


13 posted on 09/28/2005 9:52:13 AM PDT by F14 Pilot (Democracy is a process not a product)
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To: gondramB

#13


14 posted on 09/28/2005 9:52:55 AM PDT by F14 Pilot (Democracy is a process not a product)
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To: Zechariah_8_13

Index bump.


15 posted on 09/28/2005 9:53:58 AM PDT by FreedomPoster (Guns themselves are fairly robust; their chief enemies are rust and politicians) (NRA)
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To: F14 Pilot

The article seems to be a good and balanced analysis.

At one point, the author (Ephraim Kam) speculates that Iran's push for nucs may be merely for deterence and not for aggression. However, U.S. policy in response to Iran should not be based on speculations about Iranian intentions — those can change overnight. Rather, U.S. policy should be aimed at never allowing the Iranians to develop nuclear weapons in the first place. Policy should always be formed primarily around enemy capabilities, not intentions.


16 posted on 09/28/2005 10:01:27 AM PDT by Orca (Capabilities are most important, not intentions.)
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To: Orca
Iran’s current [known] capabilities… Deadly Arsenals provides the most up-to-date and comprehensive assessment available on global proliferation dangers, with a critical assessment of international enforcement efforts. An invaluable resource for academics, policy makers, students, and the media, this atlas includes strategic and historical analysis; maps, charts, and graphs of the spread of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons and missile delivery systems; descriptions of the weapons and regimes—and policies to control them; and data on countries that have, want, or have given up these deadly weapons. A CHOICE outstanding academic title from one of the premier non-proliferation research teams.


17 posted on 09/28/2005 10:08:55 AM PDT by humint (Define the future... but only if you're prepared for war with the soldiers of the past and present!)
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To: F14 Pilot; Tallguy
Soviet leaders and Mullahs are different!

Mullahs will use nukes against their own people if necessary!

The Soviets murdered 50 million of their own people. I wouldn't be so sure they wouldn't have used nuclear weapons against their own people.

18 posted on 09/28/2005 10:28:25 AM PDT by Paleo Conservative (France is an example of retrograde chordate evolution.)
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To: Paleo Conservative

Again, I think the soviets wouldn't try nukes on their own people since they were afraid of losing their own lives...


19 posted on 09/28/2005 10:32:29 AM PDT by F14 Pilot (Democracy is a process not a product)
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To: F14 Pilot

If India and Pakistan have the bomb, it's natural to conclude that Iran's got the bomb; they're just not telling anybody.


20 posted on 09/28/2005 10:33:43 AM PDT by lilylangtree
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