China Army delegation due in IRAN

IRIB ^ | 2005/08/14

[sheik yerbouty]

yup.

[SevenofNine]

OH MAN this not good Iran and China are teaming up

[SevenofNine]

OH MAN this not good Iran and China are teaming up

[inquest]

Seems to me they have both an economic and a military incentive to see things go our way in Iraq and, to a lesser extent, even in Iran.

How much of a threat do the Uighurs present to them? Not much, I'd wager. Totalitarian regimes like unrest. It gives them an excuse to expand their power.

The ChiComs are not our ally. We should never make the mistake of confusing them for one.

[JasonC]

Put down the crack pipe. They work hand in glove with the terror masters, have for decades. They recently shared cruise missiles suitable for carrying nuclear warheads. China traded for advanced fighters flown to Iran in the first gulf war. China supplies them with anti-ship missiles to threaten the strait of Hormuz. North Korea gives them their ballistic missiles.

[GOPJ]

Seems to me they have both an economic and a military incentive to see things go our way in Iraq and, to a lesser extent, even in Iran. They just don't want us too close to the buffers.

Iran's a natural flashpoint. Under what circumstances do you think China would stand with Iran against the US? I agree about Iraq - they want it settled, we want it settled.

[Kuehn12]

Unlikely that China will come to Iran's aid, I think it won't be because they don't want to. It is because they can't, they just don't have the capability. The presence of Chinese troops might make President Bush think twice, but only for a moment. This assumes that Chinese are unwilling to use nuclear weapons. An impression I have of him, and if he makes up his mind to do it. There is nothing going to dissuade him.

In the end we will have our way because we are the only truly global power. It is like the irresistible force without the immovable object.

[Racehorse]

The ChiComs are not our ally. We should never make the mistake of confusing them for one.

I agree--mostly.

But, there are all kinds of alliances.  What I've speculated about here is rather a small and narrowly defined alliance--and then, only as a possibility.

[Racehorse]

Put down the crack pipe.

mullet

[Racehorse]

Under what circumstances do you think China would stand with Iran against the US?

I take it you mean a military stand whereby China commits military force to defend Iran against the US.

Only under one set of circumstances can I imagine China committing troops.  It would be part of a prior decision by China to go to war over Taiwan.

But, I don't think China needs to commit troops to make a stand with Iran.  What I think they're doing is providing technology and weapons and providing strategic and tactical planning assistance.  You can bet they've made a close study of Gulf War I, Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, and Gulf War II.  They've probably got a lot of (theoretical) knowledge to sell the Iranians.

The Chinese military doesn't exactly have a glorious military record, anyway.  They're still flushing crimson at the humiliation handed them by the Vietnamese.  And, their general officers have acknowledged at various times, recently, that they cannot win a conventional war with the US.  So, that brings us back to Taiwan, I think, and the prospect of nuclear war.

Now, should Russia and China accept Iran's request to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, that might signal something as dangerous as Taiwan.

But does China have the internal security and the nationalist fervor to face the consequences of a real war?  I tend to think they do not.

[GOPJ]

Only under one set of circumstances can I imagine China committing troops. It would be part of a prior decision by China to go to war over Taiwan.

Taiwan, as a factor of square miles, isn't much. And if China were to take over Taiwan, and change Taiwan's ways to China's bizarre interpretation of capitalism, Taiwan would cease to be a magic generator of wealth. (China understand production better than the West in some ways, but they don't have a clue about "wealth" -- wealth in the Henry Ford tradition. And that's a cultural byproduct of The Little Red Book)

If some Islamic country wanted to take over a wildly popular beach resort - and when they did, they separated men and women and only allowed swimmers in the water if they were covered head to foot... It wouldn't stay "wildly popular". Same with Taiwan.

[Racehorse]

I am continually frustrated in trying to undertand why China gives a hoot about Taiwan. Why is reclaiming something they never really owned so terribly important they have fostered a scenario where half of China is "willingly" sacrificed in a nuclear exchange with the US.

What's the now famous taunt from a Chinese general, something like, "Which is more important to the Americans, Los Angeles or Taipei?"

Taiwan is a symbol for something much more valuable to the Chinese than a cash cow, methinks.

[JasonC]

They have nationalist fervor to spare, internal security to tune of "gulag", and are crazy and full of themselves as well. What they currently lack is sufficient high tech military hardware to risk it, that is all. Therefore, their stated military doctrine is assymmetric warfare, including warfare by proxy, warfare by state sponsored terrorism, warfare by weapons of mass destruction. Iran and North Korea are swords, they are one of the hands on the hilt.

[JasonC]

Of course, because they have nationalist fervor to spare, a grand full of themselves complex along with a less than glorious recent past, they owe their independence to American arms (we got Japan off their necks, they never would have on their own), they have a similar insecurity about their unjust and tyrannical form of government. So the example of millions of Chinese under a different government allied to the west and fully a part of the modern world is a standing humiliation to them. They are quite willing to risk war with the US over it. They presently prefer cold war by proxy to hot, that is all.

[stocksthatgoup]

"old friends" sung to the tune by Simon & Garfunkel

[inquest]

What I've speculated about here is rather a small and narrowly defined alliance--and then, only as a possibility.

I think you're still predicating this on the assumption that Beijing feels threatened by the Uighur rebellion. It's unlikely that they do, for the reason I mentioned.

[GOPJ]

Taiwan is a symbol for something much more valuable to the Chinese than a cash cow, methinks.

What would that be? I've never understood this either. Because once China takes over Taiwan, it'll become, in a few short years, just like mainland China. And it won't be any different - no better, no worse.

What keeps China on it's knees is it's lack of understanding of how Capitalism works. Money is only the means of keeping track of who's done a favor for who. It's a bookkeeping concept. China doesn't need to sacrifice now for the benefit of future generations (a la Mao) but to start paying their workers enough so each can "buy their own Model T. Ford".

Until they "get that" concept they'll be the slave labor workforce for the world.

Not that I totally object to getting well-made, inexpensive products -- a great short term benefit -- but it's a short term benefit that's mucking up the world in the long run...

[inquest]

[Taiwan is a symbol for something much more valuable to the Chinese than a cash cow, methinks.]

What would that be?

Beijing's inferiority complex. The very existence of Taiwan as a prosperous free Chinese society is an insult to the ChiComs' whole ideology, and they just can't tolerate that. That's all this is about.