Redesign Is Seen for Next Craft, NASA Aides Say

NYT ^ | August 2, 2005 | WILLIAM J. BROAD

[Paul Ross]

Almost no system on the shuttle is actually useful moving forward, because almost every one was developed with scant attention paid to how much it would cost to maintain and operate it.

Actually, the SRBs do look useful from the standpoint of being "off-the shelf" and our clearly not having $20-30 billion to start over. Perhaps we won't get to some ideal per-launch cost in a bean-counter's imagination, but it wil be good, reliable, comparatively cheaper than current operations by, in round numbers, a billion or so and get us an alternate space-lift capacity pretty darn quickly.

And as for the Heavy-Lift variant, we certainly have a chance of reducing the cost by redesigning the SRBs to be throw-aways, as will be the rest of the booster, ET, and Disposable Orbiter. Not being man-rated will drastically lower all the costs of the HLV.

[hopespringseternal]

Perhaps we won't get to some ideal per-launch cost in a bean-counter's imagination,

Without a serious sea-change in launch costs, manned space simply has no point. If all we can ever foresee being able to afford is a couple of dozen people in space at once, then every manned space idea and endeavor should be ended and the money put to much better use.

Really, though, we have the technology to lower launch costs by a factor of 100 or so right now. We don't do it because NASA can't imagine what it would do with the extra capacity and money.

[hopespringseternal]

Not being man-rated will drastically lower all the costs of the HLV.

No, not having to bring the shuttle itself back in one piece will just change the cost per pound ratio very much in the right direction. But the mission cost is still high enough to make it an academic exercise. Plus it pushes us in the wrong direction as far as developing sustainable infrastructure.

[Boundless]

>> ...I'd like to see the scenarios...

http://www.safesimplesoon.com/assets/documents/Reliability+CrewSafety.pdf

How dare you inject real data into the underinformed
speculation here :-)

Thanks for the link.

[fjsva]

...Before he was elected President he seemed to have excellent credentials....

I thought the same thing, Military, Engineer, nuclear power, Governor, businessman, etc. What a disaster he was on all levels...even today.

One thing I'll always thank Jimmy C for....when Reagon came along I made a major shift in my politacal thinking. JC was the only Democrat I've voted for President. It's been Republicans ever since.

[RightWhale]

The big thing was his relation to Rickover. I never actually met Rickover, but I was minutes away several times. He used to come down in the submarines we were building for the Navy. I have heard some stories; he was a tough customer, something like General Patton in some ways. If Rickover thought Carter was worth something, that was a big plus. I even read Carter's book. But I just couldn't quite bring myself to vote for him.

[Doc On The Bay]

Probably the "Best Way" is a Hypersonic "RAMJET/SCRAMJET" currently under development, ueing the "SATURN CLONE" as the "Heavy-lift vehicle"

We get the crews up on the scramjet, & meet the "Cargo" in orbit.

Doc

[Kevin OMalley]

BFLR = bump for later reading

[jbstrick]

"Probably the "Best Way" is a Hypersonic "RAMJET/SCRAMJET"

I think the scramjet is at least a decade away.

[green iguana]

What happened to the next generation of reusable craft?

The X-33 was X'ed out.

What happened to the all in one using a scamjet?

That was just a scam...

[Righty_McRight]

100 tons? That's an M-1 tank and a Bradley in orbit!

Moon Defense Force!

[ARCADIA]

"We get the crews up on the scramjet, & meet the "Cargo" in orbit."

Or, we use a sub-orbital hypersonic scramjet to boost a large orbiter and cargo load. I think that we are trying to do this on the cheap; and, while that sounds good and fine, it means that the real miles stones are pushed out and the bureaucrats are free to loaf for years to come. Much better to sink the dollars to get it done in a couple of years. Not only would the innovations be that much more timely, but it would force them to hire the kind of people who can get it done, and get it done now.

[NicknamedBob]

I'm still looking for these...

[meema]

Read remianing comments later?

[RightWhale]

SpaceflightNow.com:

Probe whips past Earth on long voyage to Mercury
BY STEPHEN CLARK
SPACEFLIGHT NOW
Posted: August 2, 2005




Earth's first extended visit to the planet Mercury is now one step closer to success after the MESSENGER probe celebrated its birthday one day early on Tuesday with a speedy flyby of its home planet to tweak its course for arrival in orbit in 2011.

MESSENGER made its closest approach to terra firma at 1913 GMT (3:13 p.m. EDT) as it flew 1,458 miles over central Mongolia near the capital of Ulaanbaatar.

In an effort to reduce the amount of propellant MESSENGER had to carry during its launch, engineers designed the mission to include a series of six gravity assist maneuvers past Earth, Venus, and Mercury. These flybys can utilize the force of gravity to alter the future trajectory of the spacecraft, allowing it to swing from planet to planet before eventually entering orbit around Mercury.

"One flyby down, five more to go," said Mark Holdridge, mission operations manager for MESSENGER at the Johns Hopkins University's Applied Physics Laboratory. "Now the mission begins."

---

Other things happening in space. Contrary to the general appearances, the rest of the space program does not come to a complete halt every time they launch the Space Shuttle.

[Kevin OMalley]

Me too. And where's my VTOL jet car that was supposed to be right around the corner?

[Paul Ross]

Really, though, we have the technology to lower launch costs by a factor of 100 or so right now.

I don't think that even mag-lev rail launches off the side of the Rockies quite gets us down to under a million per launch. Amortizing the infrastructure, and re-proofing the man-rating of the space vehicle itself will chew up more than that. Sorry, your math just doesn't add up.

[meema]

Cool, RW! I din't realise that we just had a flyby.
And wasn't that terrific what Steve & company did yesterday? I was glued to my moniter! NASA did good.

I just noticed my spelling needs some tweeking on above post. Whoops.

[hopespringseternal]

I don't think that even mag-lev rail launches off the side of the Rockies quite gets us down to under a million per launch.

The problem isn't technology, and people dreaming up magical technology to throw at the problem simply show that they don't understand it.

The problem is economic. NASA has an extremely limited notion of what they want to do and what is possible because they don't understand markets. They spent thirty years chasing those nasty capitalists out of their territory before they finally started to get a glimmer of an understanding that they were limiting themselves as much as anyone else.

Space needs economies of scale and it will never get that from NASA.

[RightWhale]

They spent thirty years chasing those nasty capitalists out of their territory before they finally started to get a glimmer of an understanding that they were limiting themselves as much as anyone else.

You have lighted upon an eternal truth.