Posted on 07/05/2005 5:36:46 PM PDT by RaceBannon
PING!
MEK is hated by majority of Iranians.
That is not a good option!
I agree that it is not the best option, but there is one solid , sad point that must be addressed:
Just what is marching in the street going to do against a ruler who kills those who march in the street?
Question: How do you wound a King?
Answer: you dont, you kill the King.
Marching in the streets does not even wound the King, let alone kill him.
If the student movement does not escalate into open violence against the regieme, then the student movement is nothing more than people marhing around with signs.
And if you wait for people to arm you, you might be waiting a long time, especially when Persian Oil is attractive to European nations who do not want to be friends with people who will not make them famous or make them rich.
If the students cant do it, and I do not believe they can unless they get violent, then there is only two other options: Either an outright invasion from someone like the US; or the MEK.
Time is running out. Iranian nukes WILL NOT be allowed to happen.
While the outside world is trying to size up Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and decide whether or not he was involved in terrorist operations, the people of Iran are witnessing an impressive build-up of power around the newly elected president.
Ahmadinejad has hit the ground running.
Just two days after his election he sent emissaries to all the defeated candidates to warn them in no uncertain turns that they would have to cooperate with his administration or else. Even Ali-Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who was beaten by Ahmadinejad, stopped sniping at his rival after receiving an offer he could not refuse. According to sources, Rafsanjani was told to either fall into line or have a special commission investigate his family's business deals. Mahdi Karrubi, another mulla who lost in the election, had promised to lodge a formal compliant against the results, alleging "massive and shameless fraud". By last week, however, he had been "persuaded" by Ahmadinejad to swallow his words. He now says that not only will he not make a complaint but is advising his supporters to rally behind the winner.
Next it was the turn of another mulla, Muhammad Khatami the outgoing president, to stop his jibes against Ahmadinejad and ask to meet him for a photo opportunity. Significantly, the president-elect insisted that Khatami call on him rather than the other way round.
The power show continued with another unprecedented scene. This time a delegation of Majlis (Islamic Parliament) deputies called on the president-elect to read him a letter of support composed in a language of panegyric usually reserved for the "Supreme Guide" Ali Khamenei. The letter was signed by over 260 of the 290 members of the Majlis, making Ahmadinejad the first president of the Islamic Republic to start work with such a huge base within the legislature.
While all this was going on Ahmadinejad's aides were busy organizing a campaign of declarations and newspapers advertisements in which prominent political, clerical and business figures expressed their support for the new president. This type of operation, unprecedented in Iran, is routine in Arab states ruled by despotic regimes.
But if there is one message that Ahmadinejad seems keen to impart is that he hopes to limit the role of the mullas in government. Instead, he intends to give the military a bigger voice in all aspects of decision-making.
This theme has been hammered in with a series of spectacular encounters that Ahmadinejad has organized with the military leaders in recent days.
The parade began with the army's Commander-in-Chief Maj. Gen. Ali Salimi who called on the president-elect to pledge "the unfailing loyalty of the armed forces". This was interesting because legally speaking the president has no direct relations with the armed forces that Khamenei is supposed to control as "Supreme Commander".
The military theme of Ahmadinejad's presidency became more emphasized Wednesday when the entire top brass of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) called on him to pledge loyalty.
Before the meeting the IRGC issued a statement, composed in almost lyrical prose, to welcome Ahmadinejad's victory and promise to defend his administration against "all domestic and foreign enemies."
"President-elect Ahmadinejad is a son of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard," the IRGC Commander-in-Chief Gen. Rahim Safavi said before the meeting. "It is our duty to make sure that he succeeds."
This was in sharp contrast to Safavi's statements eight years ago when Muhammad Khatami won the presidency. At the time Safavi had warned Khatami not to "dream of dangerous reforms", and publicly promised that the IRGC would step in to stop policies it deemed to be a threat to the regime's "truly Islamic foundations."
It may be too early to speak of "akhundzodai" (de-mullaization) of the regime as some commentators in Tehran are doing. But there is no doubt that Ahmadinejad's election brings Iran closer to the Middle Eastern model in which the military and security apparatus, rather than the clergy, provide the backbone of the state. Far from being a puppet in the hands of Khamenei, the new president, elected on anti-status quo platform, is almost certain to try and impose his own agenda.
But what is that agenda?
Domestically, we may expect a generational changeover in which older revolutionary figures, most of them mullas, are replaced by younger figures mainly emerging from the IRGC and the paramilitary Baseej Mustadafeen (Mobilization of the Dispossessed). The IRGC's expanding political role will be reflected in the appointment of new provincial governors and major city mayors with military and security backgrounds.
On the economic front, the new president will almost certainly move to the left in the sense of increasing government intervention in business, raising subsidies on basic necessities, and offering more government hand-outs for the poor.
Socially, the election may also lead to a retreat by the urban middle classes in favor of the poorer strata of society. During his eight-year long presidency Khatami tried to pander to the urban middle classes and failed to win their sympathy and support. Ahmadinejad is focusing on the lower middle class and the mass of the urban and rural poor, hoping that they would provide him with a lasting support base.
As far as foreign policy is concerned, expect the Islamic Republic to project its power more decisively. While Rafsanjani tried to sell himself as the man who could deal with the United States, Ahmadinejad told the Iranians that the US was "a failing power" and, quoting the late Ayatollah Khomeini, "cannot do a damn thing" against the rising tide of the global Islamic revolution. Ahmadinejad has also dismissed the regional Arab countries as "irrelevant" to what he sees as the coming showdown between Islam and the United States. "These are not countries but petrol stations," he quipped at a recent television interview in Tehran. Later, he forecast that the Islamist revolution would, in time, spread to the entire world.
Ahmadinejad's muscular style has already affected the behavior of the Islamic Foreign Ministry that has threatened a number of countries, ranging from Bahrain to Belgium and Austria, of dire consequences for a variety of incidents.
The threat to Bahrain was related to the publication by a Bahraini newspaper of a cartoon of the "Supreme Guide" Ali Khamenei. According to the Iranian constitution Khamenei is not only the "Supreme Guide" of the Islamic Republic but also the highest religious authority for all Muslims throughout the world. Thus any disrespect to Khamenei is regarded as an insult to the entire Muslim "Ummah" (community). The threat to Belgium came after the president of the Belgian Senate cancelled a meeting with the visiting Iranian Majlis speaker because the latter refused to shake hands with the former because she is a woman. Austria received its threat after a public prosecutor in Vienna opened an investigation into the murder of three Kurdish leaders there in 1989, alleging that Ahmadinejad had been involved in the crime.
The new president is also certain to take a tougher line in the nuclear nonproliferation talks with the European Union. The daily newspaper Kayhan, which was Ahmadinejad's strongest supporter in the election, has called on him to take the Islamic Republic out of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) altogether thus making any talks with the EU and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) unnecessary.
"Why do we need to talk to any foreigners about what we want to do in our own country?" demanded Hussein Shariatmadari, Kayhan's executive editor, in a recent comment.
Ahmadinejad may not go that far. He may even try to lead the EU trio up the garden path for a while. But one ting is certain: He is determined not to be a pushover.
Thanks for the ping Race. A very thought-provoking article.
A response from Alan:
Greetings,
One salient point got lost in the wash here. A Rafsanjani/MEK front is pure Iranian and no matter who supports it or opposes it, the nationality remains Iranian - not American, not European.
In fact it would be a great change from the original Mullah invasion by a man whose father was an Englishman from Bristol, England and whose mother was an Indian from Kashmir.
A man with not a single drop of Iranian/Persian blood in his veins, who hated Iranians and could barely speak Farsi when he returned. Yes, Khomeini! Put the link to your website that clarifies this and the irony of all those worrying about an Iranian reclamation of Iran will become apparent.
http://rescueattempt.tripod.com/id24.html
cheers,
Alan
You seem to think you know this guy. I think that's something that takes years. I don't care who he says he is or 'knows'.
To me he sounds like he gets a paycheck from Rafsanjani. Or maybe he's getting senile.
Either way, his idea is really nuts, and hopefully people who read it will just laugh at how absurd it is.
P.S. If he wants an Iranian-on-Iranian fight, It would make a lot more sense to arm the people and let them fight it out with some backup from others when needed. Calling in a bunch of marxist cultists and a despised old mullah is just Nuts!
Go back to the drawing board, Mr Peters.
I do not think I have any ties with the idiot Mullahs and I hate MKO traitors very much as well. Actually all Iranians I know have the same attitude towards these terrorists.
You can not find any true Iranians who agree with these marxist jihadists.
The MEK/NCRI can not even win a banana in a free Iran.
They are hated among us cuz they fought against their motherland along with Saddam Hussein.
They force women to wear veils and hide their body just like stupid Mullahs do.
The MEK has been ruled by only 2 guys since its foundation.
MEK does not believe in foundations and institutions of Democracy.
And the MEK has a poor record of human rights and they abuse their own members who disagree with them.
Those who ran from the boot camps of MEK in Iraq say that this cult is run like a Stalinist group/cult.
I hate the Mullahs but I'd rather live under the rule of Mullahs and I will fight MEK/NCRI as best as I can.
I doubt this guy (alan peters) had ever worked for the late Shah of Iran.
Why?
Because those who worked for the late Shah, are proud of what they did during his majesty's reign and they do not hide their identity.
Secondly, I think any one who has a bit of respect for the Shah of Iran should, at least, understand who fought the Shah and advocated the seizure of the US Embassy.
MEK and other leftist groups were among those radical groups which advocated and helped seize the US embassy in 1979.
MEK and other radical groups helped oust the Shah (with help of Mr. Carter).
I do not see any reason to believe that this gentleman has ever worked in the Shah's government.
In fact it would be a great change from the original Mullah invasion by a man whose father was an Englishman from Bristol, England and whose mother was an Indian from Kashmir.
This is pure mideastern conspiracy theory which sees the UK as the only element and reason for the problems of the mideastern nations
The main problems with mideastern nations (my 2cents) are:
Their belief in a fake and stupid idealogy called Islam
Their lack of logic and knowledge over the world affairs
Unless they settle these problems, they can call UK and US as the main reason for their own miseries
he he
No, he does not even like Rafsanjani, this is purely a pragmatic solution.
In act, he now wishes he shot Rafsanjani when he had the chance. 26 years ago.
He is not calling for them to be a part of it because he likes them, only because they now have guns and have an attitude.
That makes them a useful tool that can later be discarded.
There are a lot of flaws with the theory presented, but the concept and the reason why it is presented, that is where I think this discussion should go.
Just who is the student leader that the Students can call their leader?
Who has the ability to coelesce the students into one force?
Who is going to be the first student to kill a Revolutionary guard to steal his rifle in order that he may shoot more revolutionary guards so their rifles can be stolen, in order that the regieme can be overthrown with the violence necessary to over throw it?
THINK!
That is the only step ANYONE REALLY wants to happen, but who is going to be the first to do it?
Once it is done, how are the student groups, all acting independently, going to communicate in order to act as one force with common militaristic goals?
All this is WAY past due to happen.
This is NOT somethng that someone just brings to mind right now as I type. This is something that many MUST have thought, but, where is the action?
Unless the students rise up and do just this, then what Alan suggested is the only other option to make this an Iranian operation with minimal outside support. Any other option will be forced to involve foreign troops or air forces to perform only surgical strikes.
The US and Europe would be forced to DRAFT a force large enough to occupy Iran if a land based war was to happen by a foreign army.
That is not going to happen.
The students themselves must rise up and commit violence themselves upon the regeime. Not just march in the streets or drive with their lights on.
That is partly correct but I simply can't think of replacing another dictator with the Mullahs.
Yes, you are absolutely right about what you said in this post but I repeat, Neither me, nor any one else in the Iranian community would like to see MEK back in Iran.
And no worries, I believe the Mullahs' regime will be removed quicker than you think.
NOBODY wants the MEK, too many people are over-reacting to what was also explained in depth here, NOBODY wants the MEK.
It is only a plan, not a solution.
And NO ONE wants Rafsanjani, either, especially amedinijad, in fact, re-read this thread, the ol' hostage interrogater himself has threatened all his opposition with death of they dissent.
The question still stands: If not the students, then who?
There is only one tragic, brutal answer: MEK...or a draft of American and European men to go and fight.
You think the Israeilis bombing the reactors will be welcomed by the students?
Neither does the rest of the world. But if Iranian Students do NOT start placing their lives on the line for freedom, then ther are very few options left to keep this an Iran vs Iranian revolution.
Alan Responds:
Like so many others, Brooklyn Kid's response is "wave a magic wand" and.... whatever they wish would happen In this instance "arm the people". How? Under the watchful eye of the Revolutionary Guard, Security forces and plethora of other violent, extreme authorities working for the Mullahs?
"Working for Rafsanjani?" - the usual ad hominem from people who cannot come up with anything better but what ends up being wishful slogans. "Arm the People!" You can't even distribute political CDs and audio tapes easily to Iranians but according to the Brooklyn Kid you can brings in tons of weapons.
Let's say you actually have a magic wand. How long does it take to train the recipients how to use the weapons and maintain them in working order. Even ex-military have to have refresher courses all the time and practice and retrain. Case in point: - ex-military bodyguards provided to protect President Karzai in Afghanistan by the US government. Two months of weapons training before shipping out.
So Brooklyn Kid, you need two wands:
1) to get the weapons into Iran and into the hands of the people past some very astute and brutal watchdogs.
2) to wave it again to provide them instant knowledge on how to use them, shoot straight and hide them till they mean to use them.
"Nuts", dear Brooklyn Kid, is hopeless wishful thinking and slogan-like ideas that have even less chance - if any - of working than what you criticize (as you have every right to do).
You also forget one important fact. The MEK and Mullahs are still part of Iranian society and since you may have no other Leader who can lead that society into victory against the Mullahs and MEK are the only game in town. We have to use what exists not what we wish existed - like the student movement of the past.
Can you tell me for certain that recent violent confrontations - small as yet - against regime lower rank officials are not done by MEK operatives? Remember the MEK form a part of all the lower strata of Iranian society - including among the students! And also among the lower class that support Ahmadi-Nejat, thus have intelligence access to what goes on.
You seem so worried by the political philosophy of the MEK, or Rafsanjani's past that you will sit and propose "magic wand" solutions rather than carefully consider a real plan - which ends up with no Mullahs and no MEK. How bad can that be? How can I be "pro-Rafsanjani"?
Since I'm all out of magic wands, I have a practical drawing board. Do you? If so, post your solution and see how practical it is - or if it even flies in the face of real life - not wishful environments and "people power" that presently exists in wishful imaginations. I, too, wish you were right. Believe me it would make life so much easier.
No hard feelings but personal attacks and vague criticism based on your ideology does not get rid of Mullahs. Anymore than does unarmed students marching in the streets and getting killed, maimed and imprisoned without the hope of a snowflake in hell of achieving something. Even more so now that you have new military take over that's worse than the Mullahs alone.
I wish you well.
cheers,
Alan
Well, it sure seems like Iranians really hate the MEK. These strategies tell it all.
No kidding!
MEK is known as traitors among many Iranians!
If not the students, then who?
Group of true Iranians in exile just the same as the Iraqi National Council in London, excluding Ahmad Chalabi (MEK is Ahmad Chalabi for Iran and the US)
Actually, there are Iranians in Germany and the US who are potentially able to remove the mullahs through peaceful methods used in Ukraine and Georgia
I really do not want a US strike against Iran because it costs too many lives on both sides and personally, I do not want to take side if such thing happens to Iran
I do like the US and I do like my own country
Mr. Peters or whatever you are...
MEK is not welcome in Iran. PERIOD
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