Doyle Extremely Vulnerable (WI '06 Gubernatorial race)

Walker Campaign press release, via the Wheeler Report ^

[LouD]

Doyle Extremely Vulnerable
Walker has Commanding lead in Primary
First Comprehensive Poll Results Give Walker Boost Heading into Republican Convention

[Wauwatosa, Wisc] The most recent poll in the Wisconsin Governor's race shows that incumbent Governor Jim Doyle (D) is more vulnerable now than former Governor Scott McCallum (R) ever was and that Republican Gubernatorial Candidate Scott Walker has a commanding lead in the Republican Primary.

The survey yields many positive results for Scott Walker's campaign for Governor, said Brian Tringali, of the nationally-respected polling firm the Tarrance Group.

First, the sitting Governor is among one of the most vulnerable in the nation. Second, Scott Walker holds a strong lead among Republican primary voters against his most likely GOP opponent. Third, voters (especially Republican primary voters) are particularly focused on the main issue that Walker is identified with - property taxes. If the election were held today, Scott Walker would win his primary handily.

Walker's only known Primary opponent is Congressman Mark Green (R-Green Bay), who after spending two years touring the county Republican meeting circuit gearing up for the race, transferred more than one million dollars in federal funds to a state campaign account in January. Both candidates have conducted statewide mailings and have been aggressively courting voters for months. Green's campaign already has several full time staff and Walker will be hiring his first full time staff later this year.

Only 35% of Wisconsin voters think that Jim Doyle deserves to be re-elected. Almost half (49%) of the Wisconsin electorate is already committed to a new person. In the Republican Primary, Walker captures 39% of the statewide vote and Congressman Green garners just 25%.

We know this race will be about leadership on the issues that matter, not who has the most money or lead in the polls right now, said John Hiller, the campaign treasurer. However going into the convention, this information lets us know the campaign is on the right track, and it also warns us to be prepared for more attacks from Jim Doyle and his allies who need to knock Scott down a peg or two soon before it's too late for them.

The State Republican Party holds its annual convention in Sheboygan May 6-7.

The Tarrance Group conducted a random sample telephone survey of 600 likely voters April 18-21, the margin of error for the general election voter study is +4.1% and the margin of error for the GOP primary voter study is +4.8% in 95 out of 100 cases. The Tarrance Group has previously polled for Governor Tommy Thompson and President George W. Bush.

For more information, visit www.ScottWalker.org.

[the crow]

great news, LouD. many thanks for the post.

I see BD is stirring things up down the on the school board!

[flashbunny]

If walker could get in with a republican controlled house and senate, it would be worth staying in wisconsin, even with the winters.

Imagine...lower taxes, less regulation, voter ID, concealed carry...it could become a red state in less than 4 years.

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

Everything I've heard about Doyle has been big lib, big time. I hope the people of Wisconsin are blessed with better leadership come 2006.

[knittnmom]

Thanks. This article is encouraging.

[republicandiva]

Only 35% of Wisconsin voters think that Jim Doyle deserves to be re-elected.

This is very encouraging news - might even make up for Constantine getting the hook! LOL Would love to see another poll immediately after the pending voter i.d. veto!

[sporkgoddess]

ANY Wisconsinite could have told you that Doyle doesn't stand a chance in being reelected. Even Democrats hate his guts.

Here is the latest I have heard about Mark Green's possible candidacy for Governor (I am subscribed to his mailing list)I REALLY hope he decides to run.

A Note From Congressman Paul Ryan:

A few weeks back, Mark Green let all of us know he was thinking about giving up his seat in Congress to run for Governor. I wasn’t happy to hear that. Mark and I have been working hand-in-hand over the last six years to lower taxes, restore fiscal discipline to Washington and keep America safe. Frankly, I didn’t like the idea of losing my closest friend and staunchest ally in Congress.

Then he told me why he was thinking of running for Governor. That he was afraid our near-top in the country tax burden and mismanaged state budget were holding us back. He said he was afraid his kids and my kids would have to look to other states to find opportunity in the future. He told me he wants to make Wisconsin great again.

That was all I needed to hear, and ever since that talk, I’ve been pushing him to enter the race.

I’m writing you today because Mark just told me he is close to making a final decision. In fact, he’s scheduled an event in Green Bay this Sunday afternoon to let us all know what he and his family have decided. I’ll support whatever decision he makes, but I’ll be doing my best this week to convince him to run for Governor.

I hope you’ll do the same. . .shoot him an email and tell Mark we need him to lead Wisconsin forward. We need him to make Wisconsin great again!

While you’re at it, keep Mark, Sue and his family in your prayers. They have a big decision to make, and I know they’d appreciate it.

Thanks for your time – Paul Ryan

[ServesURight]

Doyle will scrounge around the bingo parlors and mental homes for votes.

http://www.jsonline.com/news/state/oct02/90228.asp

[rzeznikj at stout]

Doyle is being viewed negatively especially so among "Joe Sixpack" UW students. However, I'm quite surprised declining college support isn't mentioned, given the local media coverage given to the UW raids by the Doyle Administration.

Case in point, Doyle is explicitly looking at combining the food systems at Stout, Platteville, Milwaukee, and Madison with that of the state prisons, hospitals, etc.

I know at UW-Stout, Governor Doyle is being especially reviled for his plan, and even some of the Dems I talked to aren't happy with it either...

this article pretty much says it all. doyle is going to have to listen to WI voters in '06, and he will definitely not like what they have to say.

and considering that UW students are generally regarded as being a Dem vote, I can personally see both Walker and Green making headway (at least here at Stout), so long as they don't try to support UW cuts or useless consolidations...

[Monitor]

Thanks for the great news!

[Ronaldus Magnus]

Woo Hoo!!! I've put Scott on the spot a few times and he has passed all of my conservative litmus tests. He was reelected as the Milwaukee County executive with 58% of the vote. Even if he can only break even in Milwaukee County in the gubernatorial election, he wins.

[No-Compromise Conservative]

Green should save his money and run for Kohl's Senate seat in 2006. He's better off letting an in-state conservative run for Governor.

[Republican Wildcat]

Tommy Thompson left HHS - do you think he may take a run at the Kohl seat?

[Once-Ler]

Green should save his money and run for Kohl's Senate seat in 2006. He's better off letting an in-state conservative run for Governor.

Nobody is going to defeat Senator Moneybags except the Grim Reaper.

It is heartening to see Green and Walker openly talking about running. It adds weight to this story that Doyle is vulnerable.

The Tarrance Group is a Republican polling outfit and it makes this poll suspect IMO. I also have a hard time believing Doyle really is vulnerable. The anger over Doyle's VETO of TABOR never materialized into the recall I hoped for, and WI has voted for rat Presidents since 1984. By my observations WI voters are not concerned about Doyle abusing mentally ill bingo fans or homeless tobacco addicts to win re-election. I have doubts that he can be beat, but I'll prey for Mark and Scott. They are both fine men and attractive candidates for Gov.

[flashbunny]

I think tommy thompson would be the one person with a chance to beat kohl.

He may not be the best conservative / small government choice, but he's the best bet to get kohl out of office.

[Once-Ler]

Tommy Thompson left HHS - do you think he may take a run at the Kohl seat?

I spoke/wrote too soon. Tommy could beat Kohl. Unfortunately, I think going from Governor then Presidential Cabinet Secretary to Senator is a step backward to most people. If Tommy misses Wisconsin then being a Senator is not a desirable job. I think Tommy is going to make a living in the real world and drop politics, but it would be great to see him run against Kohl.

2 things about Tommy that make him a giant in my mind were his loyalty to party and his visionary attack against welfare. In almost every speech I saw he started with "Isn't it a great day to be a Republican?" And he was one of the first Governors to recognize that AFDC not only enslaved welfare mothers but also the children who were deprived of responsible parents/role models.

[flashbunny]

I'd rather have walker run.

For one thing, he has the milwaukee county vote, and that can not be overlooked. There are two areas of battle that the democrats need - dane county and milwaukee county. If one of them is taken away or even made 50/50, doyle has no hope to win.

Secondly, he's a tough, strong leader who has experience in an executive position - not just a legislative one. He has a track record of doing what he promised and being the one responsible for it - not just one of many.

Finally, he's got all the right issues on his side to grab all sections of his voting base. Taxpayer bill of rights, voter ID, concealed carry.

The only problem is finding someone to replace him as milwaukee county executive.

[Once-Ler]

I think Tommy Thompson would be the one person with a chance to beat Kohl.

I agree see post 17.

He may not be the best conservative / small government choice, but he's the best bet to get Kohl out of office.

Again I agree...In WI it will be a long time until we get the best conservative, but it looks like the state is trending to the right. Kerry almost lost the state and if you factor out rat fraud he probably did lose the state. Thank God for the Republican Legislature.

[Once-Ler]

All good points.