Senate 2006: From Venerable to Vulnerable The 14 seats most likely to change hands in 2006

centerforpolitics.org ^ | March 31, 2005 | Larry J. Sabato

[Coop]

yeah but on a strict numbers (not percentage basis) there will be more upsets in the house this time around....

Well, maybe, but you're comparing 435 elections to 33.

[MikefromOhio]

I know....

but I think this next cycle will bring up quite a few changes in the House.

I would really like to see the GOP pick up 15-20 seats, but that may be wishing for too much as I serously doubt that a sitting President has ever picked up seats in BOTH mid term elections during his term....

The Senate will probably stay mostly the same or the GOP might pick up one or two. That's my WAG at the moment....

[Delphinium]

"Enemies" is a strong and loaded term. If you believe that this country, which is fairly evenly split between Dems and Reps, is so divided that those in the other party are the enemy, then we really are in trouble.

socialism is our enemy, killing babies is our enemy, etec....

I don't believe it is evenly split. The Rino's are really part of the democrats.Conservatives who are afraid to stand up for right principles are almost worthless.Those who we work hard to elect, and then are afraid to do what we sent them to do are not our friends. They are worthless employees. Remember they are suppose to work for us.

[Delphinium]

The more narrow you define your ideology, the less power you will have to influence the polity.

I knock on alot of doors during political seasons, 5000 this last election. I am very experienced at campaigns. The candidates that I find easiest to sell are those who stand for something. Being conservative covers many different issues. Places where the Republicans are middle of the road and really don't make strong stands, democrats win. My biggest problem is trying to convince voters that "this Republican candidate" will actually stand for what they say they will .

[Bear_in_RoseBear]

TX-Open (R)--only if Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison runs for governor in 2006

It doesn't matter if Kay-Baby runs for governor or not, there is no way Texas would elect a Democrat to that seat.

[kabar]

My biggest problem is trying to convince voters that "this Republican candidate" will actually stand for what they say they will .

That goes for Dems as well. If it is a controversial issue, then taking a stand may hurt the candidate politically. Your opponent then brands you as a radical.

It all depends on your constituency. A Republican in Maine or Georgia, for example, must have a feel for what their consitutents want and how certain views play. If their views are so out of the mainstream, they won't be elected. So even if they have strong views on certain issues, it is not politically wise to be too explicit on how you feel, which is why most politicians say what their audiences want to hear.

[Delphinium]

which is why most politicians say what their audiences want to hear.

Which is why people get sick and tired of politicians. Making strong stands on hot issues is what stirs up new and old voters.

[Dan from Michigan]

I don't think has the clout or charisma to run for Prez, but I bet he's angling for a VP slot.

I hope you're right about that. As a partisan, Warner scares me since he's won in a Southern State(I know he's a Yankee transplant) and has triangulated the gun issue as governor.

[Coop]

Warner scares me since he's won in a Southern State

That's not that big a deal here. Four of our last seven governors have been Dems. We're a reliable Presidential Pubbie vote, but sorta split (albeit leaning to the right) otherwise.