Goldman’s $105 Oil Prediction a Little Too Slick

INTELLECTUAL CONSERVATIVE.COM ^ | APRIL 5, 2005 | NOEL SHEPPARD

[RightWhale]

What was the time frame for the $105?

[BurbankKarl]

I still say this is all the work of speculators.

[GOP_1900AD]

I personally would label it either fraud or price fixing. SEC or FTC (sort of a grey area in terms of jurisdiction) should investigate.

[RightWhale]

After the Art Bell Show last night, it seems the world we live in is the world we thought we lived in.

[The Great Yazoo]

the esteemed Wall Street brokerage firm, Goldman Sachs, released an analysis forecasting a continued increase in energy prices that could result in oil hitting $105 per barrel...

Here's how you can tell if GS really believes its analysis...if GS starts buying alternate fuels stocks out the wazoo. Otherwise, I discount GS's analysis the same way I discount that of those guys paying good money to radio stations to plug gold (poised to reach new highs!!!!). For if I believe gold prices are headed up, the last thing I'd do is pay good money to sell it short.

[RightWhale]

if GS starts buying alternate fuels stocks

That would be tough. Even if there were solid alternate energy companies, how would they possibly be good investments?

[The Great Yazoo]

Even if there were solid alternate energy companies, how would they possibly be good investments?

Unless, of course, oil goes >$100.00/barrel.

[BurbankKarl]

Goldman Sacks: Sector Strategy - Where to Invest Now: The Hispanization of the United States

Hispanics/Latinos are 13% of the US population, increasing at a rate 3X the
national average, and could have a 20% share within 25 years. Six areas – Media, Consumer, Housing, Financial Services, Utilities, and Health Care – would benefit most from this change.

[NRA2BFree]

Ping!

[carlr]

I discount that of those guys paying good money to radio stations to plug gold

I have never understood this.Have heard the gold going through the roof claim since the 70 s.
At least then there was a little accuracy as gold peaked at 700+ dollars/ounce back when Carter was President due to the economic/foreign policy mess we had under him.
I have`nt paid a lot of attention but since it settled back from that point has it been a very good investment other than for short term intervals?

[RightWhale]

If oil goes that high, the effects will ripple outward. The mere presense of alternative energy sources and companies would not automatically make them attractive compared to oil.

[opinionator]

I've put all of my money into tulip bulbs.

[The Great Yazoo]

...has it been a very good investment other than for short term intervals?

I don't know, but I don't think so. I believe one would have done much, much better buying a house than buying gold (even before you add in the costs of storage).

[appeal2]

The real way to figure out what they are up to is to find out GS's position. My bets are that they are net short.

[RightWhale]

That doesn't make much investment sense. Choosing sectors because they have an imagined ethnic preference wouldn't work. As healthcare is totally nationalized, an investment strategy might be possible if one knows where the gov't big money will go, but the investor has to be quick and savvy to get in soon enough and out before the $hi+ hits the fan.

[The Great Yazoo]

The mere presense of alternative energy sources and companies would not automatically make them attractive compared to oil.

OK. If oil does go that high, I'll take the alternative energy companies and you can take whatever you want. After a few months, we'll see who's doing better.

[RightWhale]

Tulips are colorful out in the yard, but veggies are more heartwarming.

[Strategerist]

I have`nt paid a lot of attention but since it settled back from that point has it been a very good investment other than for short term intervals?

It's generally been a bad investment. Goldbugism is more of a religion than an investment strategy; at its heart its 1) Rooting for economic disaster 2) A deep-rooted belief that other investments aren't real (you can spot a Goldbug by their use of the term "fiat money.")

[RightWhale]

If energy goes, everything goes. A vegetable garden would be the best investment.