Pentagon delegation arrives in Taipei for talks with military

Taipei Times ^ | Mar 17, 2005 | Rich Chang

[Lokibob]

FYI, things seem to be heating up.

[skybolt]

Look at the picture..
A Chinese man looks at a missile at the Chinese Military Museum in Beijing. They have it like it is a holy shrine or something.

This whole thing could go down before the end of this year.

The 5th column thing is more alarming than the military superiority of the chicoms.

[Guht]

I just hope that our boys aren't worn out from work in the Middle East. Now we have to worry about something in the Far East.

[Rembrandt_fan]

After years of buildup and preparation, the Chinese military leadership is probably chafing at the bit, hence a sop thrown in their direction when the Party passed that recent 'Let's Invade Taiwan Soon' anti-succession law. Strangely, with no real evidence, I don't think the Party wants a war--at least not this soon, not yet. If the communists thought for a moment that the US and Japan would stand down while they invaded Taiwan, they would begin immediately. As it is, they're uncertain how Bush will react. The President has encouraged this ambiguity, walking a fine line throughout most of his administration, discouraging talk of outright Taiwanese independence and stressing the 'one China' policy while simultaneously promoting strengthened coordination with Japanese and Taiwanese military planners. A strange game paradigm is emerging here. The President, it seems to me, is a poker kind of guy who keeps it close to the vest, his face unreadable. This is good for us in the short term, but at some point the Chinese are going to make their play. In my view, it will happen after the current administration. The Chinese leadership knew in their bones that a President Kerry would stand back and do nothing. The Party, patient if nothing else, will wait for another Kerry or Clinton. In the meantime, they'll probably continue to placate their military and solidify their position.

[ApesForEvolution]

Ah, jeepers. I've gotta pack...and this is big news day.

[ApesForEvolution]

Meanwhile, National Security Bureau (NSB) Director-General Hsueh Shih-ming (Á§¥Û¥Á) told the legislature on Monday that, according to NSB statistics, law enforcement officials have documented more than 49,000 Chinese illegal immigrants in Taiwan, and had repatriated more than 45,000 of them. Over 4,000 are missing.

>>>

Can they send advisors to America??

[ApesForEvolution]

"A Chinese nuclear submarine made an incursion into waters near Okinawa last November, which really angered and affected Japan," he said.

>>>

I would like Heir Clinton to stand before a Grand Jury instead of being rehabilitated by a Republican POTUS...

[ApesForEvolution]

This is going to be a long World War and the Big Terror Dogs are just getting past their proxies...

[Guht]

What worries me the most is that if China does decide to move decisively against the ROC then they will also know that we will in some way retaliate. Simple causality. However, the question then becomes what happens if they decide to unload around 600 billion in US Treasuries? It could theoretically bring our country to an economic standstill by completely devaluing our currency.

[Guht]

Well then the next question is on which side will the rest of the world line up? My thought is that Russia will do nothing and that Europe will probably also sit this out simply because it's in their economic intrest to do so.

[ThermoNuclearWarrior]

Looks like we are preparing for an inevitable war. The Chinese aren't going to attack unless they believe they will have a quick victory. Their country will be destroyed if they get into a long conflict against The United States, Taiwan, Japan, and Australia(As long as were all in it 100%). If they attack they will have a plan they believe will achieve victory very fast in my opinion.

I also think North Korea would get involved. I know Russia would do everything to oppose us and could possible even get actively involved.

What do you guys think would happen if China attacked Taiwan? If we repelled an attack do you think we would go all the way and topple the communist regime? What do you guys think North Korea and Russia will do if war breaks out with China?

[Rembrandt_fan]

Any head-to-head shooting war with a major power like China has major economic ramifications, particularly since our opponents understand that economic warfare is simply another extension of the struggle. We'll suffer, sure, but previous generations have seen worse. It's then, while our people are suffering a major, nationwide economic blow, that our leadership makes itself felt--or doesn't. Whatever you might think of his domestic policies, Roosevelt's gifts as a war leader were unparalleled in terms of the fighting spirit with which he instilled the people--not just those putting on a uniform and picking up a rifle. He helped folks understand the issues at stake, which were higher than the cost of bread or gasoline.

As for me, I have faith that our people can take whatever the enemy can dish out. For their part, the Chinese think that since our military has been ingrained with the fear of a land war in Asia, thanks to Field Marshal Montgomery and the Vietnam experience, that we'll politely refrain from taking the fight to them, that we'll confine the battle to the Taiwan Strait. While no military strategist, I think they're mistaken. I think they'll lose, and badly.

[Guht]

Well that's the problem, you see going into China is simply madness. Simply put there are too many Chinese and let's be honest, many of them are very happy with how the Chinese government's economic policies. Our one true advantage is in sea power. The Chinese do not have the amphibious units necessary in order to make a significant assualt on the ROC. Having said that, the problems of infiltrators becomes a real concern.

Then we consider North Korea, yes he's a mad-man, but you can be assured that any open conflict between the US and the PRC will lead to an invasion of South Korea. The question then becomes under what circumstances will Pyongyang use the tactical nukes they posess.

[ThermoNuclearWarrior]

"If the communists thought for a moment that the US and Japan would stand down while they invaded Taiwan, they would begin immediately. As it is, they're uncertain how Bush will react."


He doesn't need to keep them guessing. He needs to make it clear to them by stating he will defend Taiwan if they attack like he did at the beginning of his first term. We also need to show public support for Taiwan declaring independence. Waiting and appeasing China is only allowing them to choose the perfect timing of an invasion and allowing them to become more powerful. Let's push them until they back down when it comes to Taiwan or attack while they are less prepared then they will be in the future.

[KneelBeforeZod]

Any freepers been to Taipei? I know there are a coupe and there was one living there but he hasn't posted in a few years...

No trip is complete without a visit to "Snake Alley" (no it's not a resort for liberal politicians)

[Guht]

Is our military in the position to truly push back the Chinese? I think that we can definitely project power with a couple of carrier battle groups, but let's face it our boys (and girls) in the Army and Marines are tired. Will they go if asked of course they will, but let's be honest, they are not the sharp sword that they were before Iraq it's more of a big club. The desert takes a toll on the people AND the equipment. Do I believe that we could succeed yes (don't be callin' me a peace-nut yet) but let's be honest the US used our holdings of the British pound during the Suez Canal Incident as a way to keep the British from invading. 600+ billion is no small amount, taken in conjuction with the loss of our manufacturing base, our dependence on China for trade (Wal-mart alone is China's 6th largest buyer of goods) it paints a much darker picture then ones we have faced in the past.

The conventional wisdom on the difference between the Peoples Liberation Army and the USArmy is that they simply don't have the technology to compete with us. I dispute that, Intel has a plant in China now, you can be assured that in the event of war all of our patriotic companies which outsourced the work of Americans for a couple of percent additional profit will be nationalized.

Let me put it this way, I am afraid of the corner we have put ourselves into.

[Centurion2000]

then becomes what happens if they decide to unload around 600 billion in US Treasuries?

Declare their treasuries worthless and default on them for picking a fight with us.

[skybolt]

I think your worries there are a concern at the same time (unfounded?) $600 Bill in US debt would quickly be snapped up at low prices. I would by as much as I could.

On the other hand say the downside happened, then our economy would be thrown into a true wartime economy, once again US prevails.

Hey if US needs some cannon fodder, this old 2/1 cav guy will take an M16 against the chicoms.

[ThermoNuclearWarrior]

We need a bigger Military. I don't understand how a country our size can be "over stretched" by being involved in 2 relatively small wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. We should have a Military big enough to take on Nations like China, Russia and North Korea even while having troops in Afghanistan and Iraq. I am all for putting money into better Military technology but that's not going to make up for our lack of troops when it comes to a bigger conflict.

[Guht]

That could have potentially worked in a world where the world opinion of the US was favorable. Heck it's not even the world opinion, it's the other countries which hold substantial amounts of the US debt. I think that Japan would go along with it, but unfortunetly I don't think that you will see any EU member nations go with that plan, they simply put are not happy with us and regardless of your personal opinion of them, they do matter when it comes to matters of international finance. I think that the country's credit rating would drop into the garbage. The ramifications would be felt for years possibly 10's of years.