[Iowegian]

Either the Dem lies about SS have been effective or just another biased AP poll/story. You decide.

[mtntop3]

What else could be expected after the National Association of Retired Persons runs a $million-plus advertising campaign to fulminate over Social Security reform?

The bureaucrats in the NARP regularly play to the fears of those who (lavishly) support them.

It is the young - who support all the SS retirees - who will be the sector that is with Bush and with all working for reform.

[dvwjr]

This is another Associated Press 'hit' poll conducted by their polling firm Ipsos-Public Affairs. Let us take a look at their January 3-5, 2005 Bush approval rating of "49% Approve, 49% Disapprove" from another FR message thread which shows how the AP poll manages to get it slant by of course, stacking the poll respondent deck...

"Bush's approval rating is at 49 percent in the AP poll with 49 percent disapproving among all of those polled. His job approval is in the high 40s or low 50s in several other recent polls — as low as any job approval rating for a re-elected president at the start of the second term in more than 50 years.

Well, we just had an election where we have data from 13,660 respondents in the 2004 Presidential election poll. Let's forget that 'bad' exit poll results used for election night predictions that the MSM used and use the data the way it was supposed to be used, the characterize the voters...

2004 Exit Poll Vote by Party ID:
*********************************

37% Republican
37% Democrat
26% Independent 

Source: CNN: US President/National/Exit Poll data for November 2nd, 2004.

Ok, so what was the party affiliation breakdown for the 1,001 Adults, (836 Registered voters) for the Ipsos-Public Affairs AP Poll dated January 3-5, 2005. The poll has a margin of error of 3.1% for all Adults and 3.4% for Registered voters. Now the poll sample for Registered voters was:

AP/Ipsos Project #81-5139-09
****************************

43% Republican
49% Democrat
08% Independent

Source: Associated Press/Ipsos-Public Affairs - Project #81-5139-09 - January 3-5, 2005.
(Note: "not sure" respondents assigned as Independents)
(Note: Older AP/IPsos polls go into Premium content after 1 month)

Ok, that was the AP/Ipsos January poll background, now we should look at this latest February Ipsos "poll" conducted for the Associated Press to see how they got the Bush presidential job approval ratings of "45% Approve, 54% Disapprove" after the successful Iraqi elections and the State of the Union address.

Ok, so what was the party affiliation breakdown for the 1,000 Adults, (849 Registered voters) for this Ipsos-Public Affairs AP Poll dated February 7-9, 2005. The poll has a margin of error of 3.1% for all Adults and 3.4% for Registered voters. Now the poll sample for Registered voters was:

AP/Ipsos Project #81-5139-19
****************************

39% Republican
52% Democrat
09% Independent

Source: Associated Press/Ipsos-Public Affairs - Project #81-5139-19 - February 7-9, 2005.
(Note: "not sure" respondents assigned as Independents)

That party affiliation breakdown used by AP/Ipsos for this February poll does not seem to match the latest characterization of the American Voting public according to the Exit Poll data collected from 13,660 voters on November 2nd, 2004. In fact, it looks as if the AP/Ipsos poll is again a bit slanted, shall we say, in favor of the Democrats. Gee, what happened to all the Independents? Did they just disappear for the next four years???

Furthermore, to help get the February 45% to 54% approval/disapproval job rating for President Bush, the AP/Ipsos poll chose this poll to sample "all Adults" again, instead of the "Registered Voters" who have been answering this question since February, 2004. What are the odds of that happening, again?

To summarize:

AP/Ipsos polls 2005
Presidential Job Approval
All Adults

	February	January
Republicans	39%	43%
Democrats	52%	49%
Independents	9%	8%
Total:	100%	100%
Approve	45%	49%
Disapprove	54%	49%

The MSM never stops trying...

dvwjr

[jpl]

Someone ought to tell the press that the election is over. President Bush isn't campaigning any more, he's governing, and he's in his last term in politics.