Closest Flyby of Large Asteroid to be Naked-Eye Visible

Space.com ^ | 04 February 2005 | Robert Roy Britt

[tet68]

It would not be expected to cause any sort of global disruption, experts say.

I would think that would depend on just WHERE it hit.

[TXnMA]

I would really -- I mean REALLY like to see that! '-}

(Hint: I'm 67 now...)

[Rio]

That's 24 years from now... Can they really calculate the approach distance with that degree of precision?

[Fiddlstix]

BTTT

[EUPHORIC]

These "scientists" are on drugs if they think they can predict with any accuracy the thing will be slipping under the geosynchronous region 24 years in the future. Far too many variables in play over 24 years for that to happen. Perturbations in orbit introduced by encounters with other bodies and variations in the solar wind are just two of the majors. That things orbit will be changing moment by moment until the instant it flies by or hits and they know it. If they were talking a few million miles we could dismiss this thing but at 22K? I don't think so.

[RightWhale]

It won't hit

Oh, sure. The giant dark one following right along behind won't hit, either.

[Deaf Smith]

"with that degree of precision?"

Did they factor in the change in Earth's rotation from the Christmas 9.0 earthquake?

Oops.

[VeritatisSplendor]

The rock will cover about 42 degrees of sky per hour, slower than a satellite but noticeably quick in the small field of view of a telescope.

That's the width of the moon in 43 seconds. Very clearly noticeable if there are any stars in the background.

[Plutarch]

An asteroid expected to fly past Earth in 2029 will be visible to the naked eye, scientists projected Thursday.

25 years? Geez, I better exercise and eat plenty dark green leafy vegetables if I am going to see that!

[nuke rocketeer]

I think so. Just look at how precisely the guys at JPL can guide a small probe though multiple slingshot bypasses around Earth, Venus and Jupiter to get it enough energy to get it into orbit around Saturn. Then they calculate just when to release the Titan lander to make into the target site from Cassini orbiting Saturn. The precision of their calculations for this is amazing. I believe I read somewhere that the JPL engineers margin of error is less than a few hundred meters. Amazing when you consider they doing this over hundreds of millions of kilometers (or miles, at these distances, the differences are negligible).

[El Gato]

On April 13, 2029, it will be about 22,600 miles (36,350 kilometers) from Earth's center.

Much closer and we wouldn't need to worry about reforming Social Security.... or much of anything else. That's only about 1/10 the distance to the Moon, a gnat's whisker in terms of solar system distances.

[El Gato]

Perturbations in orbit introduced by encounters with other bodies and variations in the solar wind are just two of the majors.

The perturbations from other objects can be predicted, and undoubtably have been. Variations in the solar wind are not predictiable. I don't know how much that would affect something presumably fairly dense and as big as 1000 feet long.

Under the geosynchronous satellites is way too close for comfort.

[El Gato]

I think so. Just look at how precisely the guys at JPL can guide a small probe though multiple slingshot bypasses around Earth, Venus and Jupiter to get it enough energy to get it into orbit around Saturn

Yes, but over 20+ years, much longer than any of the missions you cite, small errors build up, as do small perturbations if they occur during the first few years of that 20.

[exDem from Miami]

U.S. Space Command will take care of it.

[TheHound]

If it does hit does that mean it will take out ... as the flyby will be visible only from Europe, Africa and western Asia.

Oh the horror.

[hineybona]

Gee thanx for posting..Ill have to make a note to go look at that ..Like i really care whats happening 24 years from now

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

Radar Observations Refine the Future Motion of Asteroid 2004 MN4

Updated Set of Possible Positions of 2004 MN4 on April 13, 2029

Closeup View

[wyattearp]

the flyby will be visible only from Europe, Africa and western Asia.

Well... I think that it's being somewhat rude and inconsiderate..

[Names Ash Housewares]

"2004 MN4 is expected to shine like a fast-moving star at magnitude 3.3,"

Uh, this isnt that exciting visually. I love astrononmy, space exploration. But jeez this isnt very dramatic visually. You can watch the Space Station go over quite often shining much brighter. IF you bought a ticket and flew to the other side of the world to see it, you would be pretty disappointed.