Posted on 12/26/2004 8:33:58 PM PST by shadowman99
Uhh ... these aren't lottery odds, Folks. This is more like the odds against winning a Big Mac at McDonalds when you scratch the silver paint off your french fry box.
I wonder if the odds makers in Vegas realize yet that in the year 2029, April the 13th falls on a Friday......
Thanks for the post. Just in time! I was gong to start a diet and working out at the gym this week. Now I can forget that.Whew! What a close call.
The DUers must be happy, the asterois will know they supported Kyoto and won't squish them. Man, the laugh will be on us then, huh?
Look on the bright side - you won't have to do your taxes that year!
These odds estimates are based on a Monte Carlo probabilities, where several variables are each part of the matrix.
If they ran 45,000 different scenarios for gravity, sun spot effect, solar wind effect, celestial bodies gravitational effects, the asteroid density, etc. they are saying that 1000 of them are coming up with Earth impacts in 2029.
It must be that time of the year where Congress discusses NASA's budget. Seems to be a pattern.
Why do they treat us like babies? We can take 9/11 We can handle Falluja We can deal with this too.
Oh boy, they're probably figuring odds even now.
Lucifer's Hammer.
Great book, great read. Anyone who hasn't read it should pick it up.
Regards,
No problem for those of us who will be raptured.
one "wormwood" asteroid....
coming up.
> space based laser
Lasers won't do squat. To move an asteroid you need nukes... either nuclear explosives or nuclear rocket engines. Bombs would be easier... we've got loads of 'em. If'n we could make the General Atomics "Casaba Howitzer" design of nuke, we'd *really* be in business here.
In any event, much as I'm a fan of the Rutans of the space world, this is the sort of thing that would require a Gubmint Mega Project. Build a whole armada of heavy lift launvh vehicles in the Saturn V class, launch a few hundred citybusters and a (probably manned) control system, and you'll be in business. Since I work for the company that makes the Shuttle boosters, I know what I'm going to be arguing for come the new year...
Dang. I have major plans for 2029. If true, this is very irritating.
one in forty-five chance of hitting us? That's not fair!
I still think that ranch up in the Sierra Foothills was John Garamendi's ranch. (CA's current Insurance Commissioner that is dying to be governor ever since Jerry Brown had it)
The Monte Carlo simulation by JPL's Sentry System has the probability at 30% right now for this one asteroid based on 44 "potential impacts" between 2029 and 2092. I'm surprised the fear-mongering press didn't pick up on this number. MUCH more impressive than 1 in 45.
The "good" news is that this puppy passes close to the earth multiple times ... close enough for us to reach it with current tech. If needed we should be able to get a nuke payload to it many years ahead of impact, with plenty of time to position the warheads and blow them at precise the right moment in order to adjust its orbit just enough to miss us. The object is not to try and destroy it ... but, rather, to change its orbit by a fraction of a percent. If done early enough, that should keep it from hitting us.
Anyone ever read Thunderstrike? Good SF book. In that book a huge comet which would have hit the Earth was slowed up by maneuvering smaller rocks (asteroids) into it's path with shaped atomic charges. The impact of these asteroids with the comet caused it to slow by several dozen minutes and, thus, it hit the moon instead of the earth.
Larry Niven Bump
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