Posted on 12/11/2004 11:06:54 PM PST by dangus
>> Yes! If I remember correctly, Zogby had Arkansas tied!!! Sure enough, as many knew it would come out, it ended up anything but tied. <<
You are correct. Zogby showed AR as a tossup. Their last poll had Bush winning by only 1 percent. Bush won by 10. But I did not count it against Zogby because their poll had been taken more than three weeks before election day.
Very interesting....Marked for later read!
It would be equivalent to state that. However, the point of what I wrote was to suggest maybe it was not the polls' fault, but rather that Bush did poorer than expected because of the media campaign to discourage voters.
PS... I'm glad I made Bananaman happy.
You can see Battleground's record from 1992-2004 here.
Gallup's state polls were pitiful this year, and hopefully they drop that idea in the future.
Gallup could have easily gotten the national numbers on the button if they didn't allocate the undecideds in such a nonsensical manner. Their final data gave Bush a 49-47% lead over Kerry, but then the proceeded to allocate 90% of the undecideds to the Kerry column, this being the only way for them not to have to call the race either way.
Distributing it at a more reasonable 50% would have made their projection 51-49, but it was their own credibility.
In addition to being of dubious origin, the "undecided" supposition was based upon iffy premises, which anyone with an ounce of common sense would be able to see through.
My own personal opinion was that most of these "undecideds" were simply people who wanted to be given a reason-virtually any reason at all-to vote for President Bush, not the other way around.
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