I shouldn't I be worried

Real Clear Plolitics/ electoral-vote.com ^ | Poinq

[G.Mason]

Eye wouldn't if eye were u.

[No Blue States]

lol!

Yep, get it together we are in a good position.

[bust]

Amen. My thoughts exactly.

[CThomasFan]

But there HAS to be Republican voter fraud. The lack of a smoking gun proves it. I read all about it in the NYT
/sarcasm

[Thickman]

I heard a report on FOX this morning that a group working for Pubbies was canvassing voters. If they leaned for GOP candidates, the registered them to vote. If they leaned donkeycrat, they moved on. Like that is a crime. I'm glad we are doing stuff to counter all of the dumbocrats' actual fraud!

[SuperSonic]

From Kerry Spot by Jim Geraghty:

ELECTORAL COLLEGE GAME [10/19 05:40 PM]

I played the Los Angeles Times electoral college game that Jonah discovered. You know why President Bush has the advantage right now?

Take all the southern states that the L.A. Times has "toss up" but that Kerry has trailed almost all year long - Virgina, West Virginia, Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri - and color them red. Give Bush a couple of red states that he leads, Nevada, Arizona and Colorado. Give Bush Florida, where he leads by 3. Now conclude that Bush picks up two blue states that he currently leads in, New Mexico (Bush leads by 3) and Wisconsin (Bush leads by 4).

Without giving Bush any other state - including Maine, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Iowa, Minnesota, Oregon or Washington - Bush is at 269, which throws the election to the House of Representatives. Barring a stunning performance by Democrats in the House races, Bush wins.

If Bush goes 1 for 8 among those last 8 states, winning only New Hampshire or Maine (the states with the least electoral votes) he still hits 273 electoral votes and wins more than he did last time. Bush going 8 for 8 would be a 353-185 landslide, spurring the Dukakis comparisons.

Kerry just has so little margin for error on Election Day.

[Hermann the Cherusker]

still i would like him to increase his lead there by 10 or so

Frankly, I'd rather he win PA, NJ, MN, and MI then he blow out a state he is already going to win.

[Hermann the Cherusker]

No one much notices if Bush's poll lead in Texas rises from 59-36 to 64-32, but a rise like that in several hardcore Bush states can affect the national numbers.

Not true.

A 1 point movement nationally is equal to 1.1 million votes. The only Bush states of any significance population wise where Bush has a good sized lead are Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, and Tennessee. Together they have 16.75 million votes. It would take a 7 point swing there to make a 1 point swing nationally.

What we've seen with the Fox poll, for example, is a 4 point Bush swing from the average position in September and early October. Such a volume of swing cannot be accounted for reasonably in the heavy Bush states.

Fox Poll - Bush-Kerry
10/17-18 - 49-42
10/3-4 - 47-45
9/21-22 - 46-42
9/7-8 - 47-43
8/24-25 - 44-44
8/3-4 - 43-47
7/20-21 - 43-44
6/8-9 - 42-42
5/18-19 - 40-40
4/21-22 - 42-40
4/6-7 - 43-42

Look closer too. Kerry has the same support he had in April-July in the Fox poll - ~42-43%. Bush has climbed 6 points to 49%. Its the same story as in the Rasmussen poll, the ABC/Washington Post poll, the Newsweek poll, Pew Research, Zogby, IBD/Tipp, Gallup, Time, etc. They may differ on the relative values slightly, but they all agree that Bush has climbed 3-6 points since spring, while Kerry is stagnant.

The trend is your friend.

[puroresu]

Good points!