POLL-Kerry Opens Three-Point Lead on Bush

Reuters ^ | 10-11-2004 | John Whitesides

[Jacobis]

Thanks for the summary. Makes me feel better.

[BoBToMatoE]

I am worried by this poll...lest we forget, Zogby had Gore up by 2 on election day 2000....Gore, did in fact, get more votes than Bush...the only other poll on that day that had Gore up (by one) was the CBS poll, while Fox had it a tie.

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If you look at the stats.. there were several polls - all which were within the margin of error.. did gore get the popular vote by 2 percent or less? I am guessing much less. I dont know the total number of people who voted in 2000.. but he supposedly won by 500,000 - most of which came from california and new york, if memory serves me correctly.

[sydbas]

Where is News'weak's poll? After the first debate they couldn't get the news out fast enough that, according to their poll, Kerry had taken the lead.

[Bungarian]

How many times will this be posted???

[Hildy]

This is a conspiracy if I've ever seen one. Every other poll has Bush by 3-5. Along comes Zogby to muddy it up. They need at least one poll to refer to when they start their lawsuits. Zogby was more than happy to help those rats.

[DarthVader]

Don't worry about this poll. It was Zogby's telephone poll. This 3 point stuff is his interactive which was not so accurate in the 2002 election.

[Moby Grape]

If my memory serves me, I think Gore won the vote by 1.5%...and I think the vote total was upwards of one million or more...however, Bush as we know won the EC vote tally....But my REAL point was that we cannot simply dismiss the Zogby poll.

On election day 2000, Gallup had Bush up by 2, ABC had Bush up by 3, Battelground was Bush by 5, POA had Bush up 9, Newsweek had Bush up 2, Washington Post had Bush up by 3.

[t-1000]

I think the poll is probably somewhat accurate. However I do think, that the margin of error is in the republican favor. Soley because I do not think Republicans take time to answer polls.

Therefore, my guess it is a dead heat. In which case, we referred to the EC. Bush wins the EC again.

[zoobee]

I just signed up recently on the internet to become a Zogby Poll voter...they sent me one the other day a day or so after the first debate. It asked about Bush and Kerry and what issues were most important to me....but the strangest questions out of this was:
Are you a NASCAR supporter. Strange.

Everyone in here should sign up for ZOGBY. GO to their website and do it!

[DarthVader]

Gore won the the popular vote by 0.4-0.5%.

[the invisib1e hand]

yeah, right. after that masterful performance friday, kerry blows away...no one.

[DarthVader]

Stop confusing Zogby interactive with his telephone surveys. His ineractive poll is voluntary and subjective to whoever wants to take it. Maybe we should Freep it and mess up his results.

[deport]

Total  Votes...105,399,588
 
Gore.....50,996,039  48.38%
Bush.....50,456,141  47.87%
Difference..539,898   0.51%

A win of 2% or more wouldn't have been close in the EC..

[tobyhill]

Zogby is missing 9% while saying only 6% are undecided. Attribute 1% to Nader, Zogby is still missing 2%. Giving a margin of error of 2.9% actually equals 4.9%. This in its self could equal up to 9.8% swing. Does the DemoRat Zogby really think American's idiots? This is nothing but a media attempt to gain viewers by showing a "close race". The closer they can make it sound the more attention viewers give. I am convinced President Bush actually leads by 5-7%. There may only actually be 2% undecided at this late in the race so who is Zogby trying to kid?

[rawhide]

Zogby is smoking something!!!

[DarthVader]

This is the last poll you will see with a Kerry lead.

[t-1000]

So you are saying that these polling results are soley driven by data obtained from the internet?
If that is truely the case, then Zogby should not be in the business.
Any data obtain from any type of internet polling is suspect.
To date their has not even been accurate statistical analysis of WHO is actually on the internet.
Not to mention, in order to find WHO and study their surfing habits and whether or not they would take time to particpate in on-line polls.
It is a total joke.

[TonyInOhio]

How many times will this be posted???

Looks like three, so far. :)

[BlazenGold]

This is total bull. Bush is leading in all the polls that matter. Zogby was dead wrong in 2002 as he is now.

[BoBToMatoE]

Total Votes...105,399,588

Gore.....50,996,039 48.38%
Bush.....50,456,141 47.87%
Difference..539,898 0.51%


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Okay.. this is what I was trying to get at.. there was NO 2% lead for Gore which Zogby had predicted. Bush got nearly a full 2 percentage points more than what Zogby said while Gore's margin of error was hardly even half a point.

Does anyone else see the problem with the way Zogby weighs his polls?

Of course all these numbers are within the margin of error. The point is that Bush needs to have a lead out side of the margin of error to win (and get above the coming onslaught of voter fraud).