zogby - Kerry 47 Bush 44

Zogby / Reuters ^ | 10/11/2004 | Zogby / Reuters

[blanknoone]

My prediction:

Within two weeks, Zogby will have Kerry at 122% and Bush at negative 22%.

By election eve, Zogby will predict a narrow Bush win in the popular vote, and a comfortable Bush victory in the EC. And he will declare himself 'accurate'

[The Hound Passer]

I'm not into polls since they are more art than science, but if we take Zogby's poll at face value, the horse race number doesn't square with Bush's job performance in the same poll. No incumbent president has ever lost election with job performance above 50%.

[HisKingdomWillAbolishSinDeath]

He is just making sure the Republican voters don't get complacent and don't show up to vote. Thanks Zogby.

[demlosers]

I wonder what Zogby's last presidential poll is going to look like?

Zogby, you have 21 days left to play with the numbers, then what are you going to do?

He certainly knows his target audience - Drats.

[kesg]

Every poll has a degree of uncertainty built in. That's why I think that it is better to rely on poll averages rather than individual polls.

As for how hard or soft President Bush's support is, Democracy Corp (James Carville's firm) did a study following the first debate. They found that Bush's hard support is at 48%, while Kerry's was at 46%. For both candidates, only 2% of respondents said that there was even a "fair" chance that they might change their minds. This finding ties in with what Matthew Dowd (Bush's pollster) had been saying after the first debate, which is that he thinks the President has a 2-3 point lead nationally.

I have said this many times, but my personal opinion, based on historical data that Gallup put out about a month or so ago, is that the President's job approval rating, even more than the topline numbers, is the single best predictor of his election day vote. Right now the poll average of Bush's job approval rating is in the low 50s, which is good enough to win nationally by 4-6 points. If you think about it, the overwhelming number of people who will actually vote for the President (including leaners) will conclude that his job performance is good enough to deserve re-election. The overwhelming number of Kerry voters (including leaners) will believe that his job performance is not good enough to deserve re-election.

[rang1995]

and always editorializes that POINT when interviewed with results, israel this, US. policy that,the war this, i dont trust him

[Tribemike]

Zogby is a partisan RAT. I believe he is trying to add pressure to Bush re. the last debate. If he creates enough tension on what is at stake, Bush may choke or lose his cool or something.

Two tracking polls - Rasmussena and Washington Post show 4 and 5 point Bush leads....

[merry10]

i mean rather than looking at the national polls on average.

[sinbad17]

Interesting figures! I had been until about three weeks ago one of the regulars polled by Zogby. I had never wavered in my support for the President. I wonder if because of this I was DROPPED?? Maybe other Bush supporters were as well??? Might skew the results some if this is true.

[KwasiOwusu]

Zogby is not only an Arab-American, he is an American-hating, Al Quaeda loving Arab-American.
Only a few months ago, he gave a nasty anti-American speech when he visited the Middle East, a speech that might just as easily come from Al Jazera or even from Bin Laden himself!
Like his pal Bin Laden, John Zogby is a Bush hater who is hell bent on doing everything in his power to get Bush defeated. Zogby polls are totally worthless. He never gives any details of how his numbers are arrived at. He basically plucks numbers from this air to advance his Bush-hating political agenda.
Anyone remember the California recall elections last year?Good old Zogby bsicaly had the Democrat Cruz Bustemante ahead of Arnold by at least 10 % points with less than a week to go, only for Arnold to beat Bustemante by to the tune of around 10%! Zogby the withdoctor was off by a staggering 20%!
Bottom line, Zogby or no Zogby, Bush is going to clobber Mr Flip Flop Kerry but good.
Since the second debate, Bush's numbers have been solidly up in all reputable polls. Zogby should stop making figures up from what he dreamed about last night and start conducting proper pols or he can go join his pal Bin Laden in the Afghan caves and continue to practice his snake charming tricks.

[LS]

This crap should really not be posted. Zogby is an INTERACTIVE POLL with no more scientific basis than a "McDonalds' 'straw poll'." It is utter garbage, as is Harris, another interactive poll.

No one should take a word of this junk seriously. I'm surprised so many Freepers are taken in by his crap.

[deport]

Click

Released: October 11, 2004

Election 2004 Reuters/Zogby Daily Tracking Poll: President Bush Falls Back, While Senator Kerry Moves Ahead; Kerry, 47% - Bush, 44%; President Gaining Momentum Among Younger Voters (47%-38%), New Reuters/Zogby Poll Reveals 

As the count down to election day continues, Senator John Kerry leads  President George W. Bush by three points (47%-44%), according to a new Reuters/Zogby daily tracking poll.  The telephone poll of 1214 likely voters was conducted from Friday through Sunday (October 8- 10, 2004). The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.

Presidential Candidates  %	Oct 8- Oct 10	Oct 7-Oct 9	Oct 6-Oct 8
Republican - George W. Bush	44	45	45
Democrat - John Kerry	47	46	46
Independent - Ralph Nader	1.7	.9	1.4
Libertarian - Michael Badnarik	.1	.1	-
Constitution - Michael Peroutka	.2	.2	.2
Green - David Cobb	.1	.2	.1
Other	.9	.7	.7
Undecided	6	7	6

Pollster John Zogby: "The President did not have a good single day today. He has lost another point over the three days. Polling 44% is not good for an incumbent -- but this is very far from over. Bush seems to be making gains among 18-29 year olds. He now leads among them -- something that has not happened all year until now. I am watching closely to see if that continues. This group also has 9% undecided, which is high for this year. Neither Bush's gains nor the high undecideds are good news for Kerry.

"The President also appears to be getting stronger in the Central/Great Lakes region -- home of Ohio, Michigan, and Missouri. I will continue to watch that. As will I look closely at  military families where the President has picked up a few points.

"But the President only leads among married voters by 11 points -- not enough to offset Kerry's strong lead among singles.

"Kerry continues to poll well among low income and union voters. He has improved his standing among women and is running strong among voters who have active passports -- perhaps a sign that he is making his case on foreign policy. Kerry also continues his dominance among Jewish voters. While the sub-group polled is small, the fact that the President never seems to break 20% of this group at least suggests that he might not do as well as his advisors have suggested.

"Ralph Nader continues to slip-- polling only 1.7%. He does receive 5% of Independent voters but is barely a blip on the screen among Democrats. Kerry leads among Independents by 6 points, but 16% of them are undecided.

"Lots more campaign to go. Wednesday's debate is vital because many sub-groups remain close and because so many Independents have yet to make up their minds.”

Zogby International conducted interviews of 1214 likely voters chosen at random nationwide. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from October 8 through October 10, 2004. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, gender, to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

In 1996, John Zogby came within one-tenth of 1 percent of the presidential result. Since 1996, Zogby has polled for Reuters News Agency, the largest news agency in the world. The latest results and analysis of the Zogby polls, and exclusive interviews with John Zogby are available on Reuters.com. The site provides comprehensive coverage of the campaigns, including a special video service, which compares the position of both candidates on key policy issues.

(10/11/2004)

[fooman]

push poll, more people becoming pubs.

[LS]

No, he doesn't. He simply isn't using "scientific" polling methods. They are totally discredited. An "Interactive" poll is not a legit poll--ANYONE can vote in it. "Babysealclub" has already stopped even including his polls in the analysis. I think Dales has too.

[finnman69]

Zogby is desperate for Kerry to win as he went out on a limb months ago and called the election for Kerry. His credibility and livelihood is at stake

[deport]

This crap should really not be posted. Zogby is an INTERACTIVE POLL with no more scientific basis than a "McDonalds' 'straw poll'." It is utter garbage, as is Harris, another interactive poll.

---

Wrong.... this isn't the interative poll. This is the Zog/Reuters poll.......

[finnman69]

here's another thing that looks fishy. You would think most newly registered voters are in fact first time voters and therefore mostly young.

Bush seems to be making gains among 18-29 year olds. He now leads among them -- something that has not happened all year until now. I am watching closely to see if that continues. This group also has 9% undecided, which is high for this year. Neither Bush's gains nor the high undecideds are good news for Kerry.

[LS]

Still crap. It's Zogby, and he was totally off in 2002---badly, badly off in the senate races, as I recall, especially those that were close. He's a dinosaur.

[deport]

Still crap.

---

Maybe but it's not his interactive poll......

[madison46]

Ya know, I don't thing Zogby is a god. He got it withing .1 in 1996..since he has been right there with the others, no better, no less. In 2000 he picked up the shift of the DWI story, but wasn't closer than CBS was. In 2002 he was awful.

Now having said that, I get tired of the dismissals of his tracking poll cause he is including 'voter fraud' or that he is a Dem 'shrill'. I doubt he is taking into account 'voter fraud'..listen to him, and in this case worry, but watch the other polls. Just remember, it was Rass that was the most off in 2000.

madison46

ps. Zogby's interactive poll is crap; however, the ncpp had some org that used it and they had the 2000 election a tie. So who knows. It's a close, close, close race; however, I think the EV's are for Bush.