Rasmussen bush Kerry Tied

Rasmussen ^ | 10-6-2004 | Rasmussen

[LadyPilgrim]

"I really don't get this polling service."

Polls are all lies, anyway! So why look at them?

[COEXERJ145]

If you want to believe Rassmusen, be by guest. He has yet to prove himself a reliable pollster.

[hawaiian]

A Rasmussen poll with never make or break my day.

[shawngf]

Again the same names crying out in dismay...

[ubaldus]

His model is quite simple - he assumes 2000 partisan breakdown, and normalizes his sample accordingly.
In September, this reflected Bush surge quite well. Now the Dem's are getting mobilized, and Kerry is pulling away Independents.
I think if R starts show K up by 2 (which is possible later next week), we are indeed in trouble.

Fortunately, there are 3 weeks between the last debate and 11/02, and there will be a chance to undo the damage.

[sam_whiskey]

I think he's saying the left doesn't do that...and it works to their advantage. I've noticed it too--I don't like it or agree with it--but that seems to be the way it works. We give honest assessments about our candidates and the left circles the wagons.

[COEXERJ145]

Seeing how you're fairly new, you might not know about Rasmussen's history.

During the 2000 election he was off by roughly 8%. He predicted Bush was going to blow Gore out of the water by roughly that much.

During the 2002 mid-term elections, he blew it again. He did not come close to showing the Republican pickups in the House and Senate.

So far this year, he has had both candidates moving within a 5% range from 44% up to 49% and then back down. It has yet to move beyond that in at least 5-6 months.

[Law is not justice but process]

"Kerry probably has a good day still hanging on from Sunday."

Looking at his numbers the poll has gotten steadily worse for Bush over the week. I think yesterday was worse than Monday, which was worse than Sunday. I would say this is not a quick change in response to the debate but a more gradual change in response to the press coverage of the debate. In other words, most voters did not know Bush lost the debate until Dan Rather, wiping saliva from his mouth, told them about it again and again. It could get worse from here, unless the economic (jobs) numbers and the Afghan election at the end of this week come out well.

We have much work to do if we want to win this one.

[sam_whiskey]

I think you're right...2000 is an example of him "lagging" too I believe.

[Illinois Rep]

Rasmussen automatically weights his data to reflect 39% Dumbies 34% Republican and 27% independent.

So you should automatically add around 4 points to his data. He makes SURE this is who he counts in his polls. Now if he picks 39 Dems 34 Repubs and 27 Independents out of 100...this is GREAT news for Bush. It means Bush is getting at least 5 percent MORE of the independents than Kerry. It also means he probably gets a couple points more because I doubt there will be 39 out of 100 voters being Dems.

The only other reason I think he does this is he knows full well the voter fraud the left is capable of and you can NEVER predict this in a poll. You can't phone a dead person and no one is going to say..>I am voting for Kerry TWICE! so remember his polling data is weighted favoring Dems.

[KJacob]

Looking at his numbers the poll has gotten steadily worse for Bush over the week

The Washington Post has started a daily tracking poll. In there Bush was up 5 on Monday and 6 yesterday.

[KC_Conspirator]

Yes, but there are times, like in August, where Kerry camp and the media ignored the Swift Boat ads and wound up getting killed by them.

[Tennessean4Bush]

poll has gotten steadily worse for Bush over the week. I think yesterday was worse than Monday, which was worse than Sunday.

How do you tell that? It could just be a good day for Kerry on Sunday coupled with a good day for Bush on Saturday rolling off.

[Law is not justice but process]

" The Washington Post has started a daily tracking poll. In there Bush was up 5 on Monday and 6 yesterday"

Good. But polls are all over the place. I think we should pick the one that looks worst for Bush and work like that one is accurate. I hope Bush is comfortably ahead. I am going to work like he is well behind.

Don't panic. Don't wail and gnash your teeth. Just find a couple of swing voters and convince them Bush is the better choice.

(and I admit that the WP poll is as likely to be accurate as Rasmussen, but I don't trust either entirely)

[Law is not justice but process]

Quite right. Many on the right seem to spend more time bemoaning Bush's poor performance in last week's debate than pointing out the weaknesses of Kerry. That's no way to win an election. If you stop to lick your wounds, the other dog will win the race every time.

[gswilder]

I actually thought Kerry would be ahead in the Ras poll today. So my estimate is Bush is back up 1.5 - 2.0 on Thursday. Not doubt the race has tightened over the last week. Is it due to the debates or just normal as we get closer to the election? Looking at all the polls overall, Bush is still ahead by 3-4 points nationally. Most of the state polls still look good for Bush, but since they lag, we may not see a shift there until next week.

Here is my analysis on the race overall. Mid August, we saw a statistically significant shift towards Bush in the polls. He has been ahead or tied in virtually every poll since then. The best kerry has been able to do is get it close in some polls. It's like a sports team that was down by a large margin and is making a last minute run. I think Kerry may make is close here at the end. But I don't believe they will be able to get "over the hump" and stay there. In fact, I believe in the very end on election day, we will see a large surge toward Bush.

[gswilder]

I actually thought Kerry would be ahead in the Ras poll today. So my estimate is Bush is back up 1.5 - 2.0 on Thursday. Not doubt the race has tightened over the last week. Is it due to the debates or just normal as we get closer to the election? Looking at all the polls overall, Bush is still ahead by 3-4 points nationally. Most of the state polls still look good for Bush, but since they lag, we may not see a shift there until next week.

Here is my analysis on the race overall. Mid August, we saw a statistically significant shift towards Bush in the polls. He has been ahead or tied in virtually every poll since then. The best kerry has been able to do is get it close in some polls. It's like a sports team that was down by a large margin and is making a last minute run. I think Kerry may make is close here at the end. But I don't believe they will be able to get "over the hump" and stay there. In fact, I believe in the very end on election day, we will see a large surge toward Bush.

[DaGman]

In defense of the prep team, they can only do so much. The rest is up to Bush to perform.

[Law is not justice but process]

"I believe in the very end on election day, we will see a large surge toward Bush."

I sincerely hope you are right about that. My point is we cannot count on that as a strategy. We need to work harder every day until election day. We need to run like we are trying to catch up, even if we are ahead. I hate to sound like a football coach, but we do need to get better motivated. Wallowing in self pity (which I do not think you have done, but which I hope you will agree many on FR have) or denying that the race has tightened will not win the election. Aggressive campaigning - by all conservatives from Bush down to me - will.

If you want further motivation, fellow conservatives, I give you this to think about:

Chief Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg

Four Supreme Court Justices appointed by Kerry

If Ruth doesn't last here is the best motivator: Chief Justice Clinton (your choice of Bill or Hillary)

[uncbob]

First you say 48%; 47%; then you say 47%; 47%---which is it??

What does it matter Bush should be at at least 55%
Hell he was better than this in 2000 and he is now an incumbent

This ain't good