Posted on 09/26/2004 9:33:30 AM PDT by Owen
First of all Rasmussen is very Dem leaning... Second there may be some shift due to the Draft fear that the Dems have started with the young voters.... However, that draft fear is going to backfire on them big time once the headlines about the 14 Democrats that sponsored the draft bill comes out in Main Stream Media outlets... I know a reporter tried to ask Kerry about the draft comments he made the other day but Kerry did not answer... Once this gets out and the youth hear how the President enjoys the volunteer military at its highest recruitment levels and how much the military hate Kerry that they will all be getting out under a Kerry administation that end strength would be impossible to maintain for a President that doesn't have the guts to fight terror and calls America's efforts in Iraq wrong... Kerry will have to implement the draft if he was to win...
What did his poll show in 2000?
Voter fraud is the monkey wrench not captured in these polls. The groundwork has already been laid for massive fraud in WI. Similar reports from Ohio. Unless it is a blowout, the Dims are going to export the Florida 2000 debacle to WI, MN, IA and OH.
"Since Rasmussen has always been a left-leaning poll, I suspect it's been tampered with."
Ras a left-leaning poll? What?
He had us +9 in his last poll of 2000.
"The big concern is still "new" voter registrations - And in OH and FL it appears the Democrats have done a much better job at getting "new" registered voters signed up (with the deadline fast approaching) -
This election is going to be out turnout, turnout, turnout in a half-dozen States"
It is always about turnout, but I doubt that the Democrats will be able to repeat their effort of 2000.
Kerry is already having a tough time with the black vote.
Moreover, Bush's base is fired up and ready to vote him.
They see this as an issue of this nations very survivial.
Also, look at the demographics.
Last I saw, Kerry was even attracting the woman's vote.
What Democratic candidate can survive without an overwhelming woman's vote?
He is not going to get the gun-owners
He is not going to get the veteran vote.
He is not going to get the Christian vote.
He is not even going to get all the Democratic vote, which is what happened in the Nixon and Reagan blowouts.
The question one needs to ask, looking at the electorial map, is whose campaign would you prefer to be at this point?
Bush, who is threatening Kerry states
Kerry, who cannot crack Bush's states (Kerry is behind in Ohio and Fl.)
He had us up 9 in his last poll of 2000.
Hahahahahahahahahaha!
With that said, I still think we are going to see the largest voter turnout in Presidential History (% wise).
The Democrat 527's and the DNC are signing up everybody and their mothers to be "registered" - (and there in lays the framework for a huge turnout, fraudulent or not by people who did not vote in 2000).
Agree our base is fired up. Which is exactly what we need.
As for the women's vote. It is really all about "single women" - Because G.W. Bush carried the married women vote by 2% in 2000 -
The one area where I was hoping for larger than expected turnout was going to be in the "Christian" vote - Yet from voter registration lists coming out of OH and FL it does not appear we (GOP) increased our numbers by that much over 2000 - and no where near the new numbers the Democrats have -
I think Bush is up currently by over 15% among married women.
Registration is not turnout.
The fact that they have a heavy regristartion does not mean that it will turnout the vote.
For example, a key vote is the black vote.
There is very little enthusiam for Kerry among blacks.
In Maryland, 20% of blacks are going to vote for Bush.
I remember when Bush ran for the second time in Texas.
He had a 70% blowout.
Why? Because he cuts across all demographic lines while holding his own base.
Kerry is trying to get his base aroused and is not appealing to the moderate voter.
Among Likely voters, Bush is always ahead.
I do agree that we must turnout the vote and the GOP has spent a great deal of money on the ground to do just that.
Don't believe ras or zogby.
Follow the money, Bush must be up 5%.
I don't think this will be a blowout but we will win short of a major blunder.
The first debate should decide the matter.
Again, we agree that registered isn't the same as turnout -
With that said, I think this year it will be different when there has been such a concentrated effort to get "new" registered voters signed up to vote (like no other past election)-
Which leaves me with an area of concern - I was hoping our effort would have been on par with the Democrats efforts for signing up new voters in OH and FL - It appears the Democrats have signed up many more "new" potential voters than we have -
This concerns me -
As for G.W. Bush getting 20% of the black vote in MD - I can only pray that it be so - I will say we have heard this same mantra for 20 years now that "this election we will get more of the black vote" - And yet every election the Democrat gets 90% + of the black vote -
If G.W. Bush gets 18% of the black vote there is no election, Kerry would be toast -
Don't compare Rasmussen with polls that are a week old. A week is a lifetime. Rasmussen is daily. Time showed some closure in the gap too. The closure is real. They have out-registered us. We have about a week to make that up, and thereafter we have to do a better job of GOTV.
Do not think this is over. It's not. The opposition is intent. Think about what they are fighting for. They all are seeing White House staff jobs on their resumes and a lifetime of lucrative lobby work. They Won't Give Up. They have too much to gain.
The issue of registration advantage is a tactical decision by the Dems to address the fact that "Likely Voter" polls always lean GOP. They have to overwhelm that one level down, i.e., Adults vs Registered Voters.
Remember how we've always said Adults can be anyone and they are about 4% for Kerry vs Registered? And how LVs are +3% for Bush vs RVs? They are attacking that. They are trying to move Adults into the RV category and only in their own districts.
This is a threat. We have only a week to respond.
the Rasmussen poll is garbage. It consistently fails to capture any momentum for either candidate, Kerry in July Bush since Aug. Why are you taking it seriously?
if it was truly 47-46, Kerry would still be in MO running ads. MO wil lbe 2-3 points more GOP than the national result. Thus Kerry would still have a shot there.
I dont think there is any evidence Rasmussen is left leaning. I just think he is a poor polster.
| Date | Bush | Kerry |
| Today | 47.2 | 46.5 |
| Sept 25 | 47.9 | 46.3 |
| Sept 24 | 47.4 | 46.5 |
| Sept 23 | 49.0 | 45.4 |
| Sept 22 | 48.8 | 44.8 |
| Sept 21 | 48.3 | 45.5 |
| Sept 20 | 48.1 | 45.3 |
| Sept 19 | 47.8 | 46.1 |
| Sept 18 | 49.4 | 44.8 |
| Sept 17 | 49.2 | 45.2 |
| Sept 16 | 49.3 | 44.7 |
| Sept 15 | 47.3 | 46.4 |
| Sept 14 | 47.1 | 46.5 |
| Sept 13 | 47.2 | 46.4 |
| Sept 12 | 48.3 | 45.2 |
| Sept 11 | 47.5 | 46.1 |
| Sept 10 | 47.8 | 46.2 |
| Sept 9 | 47.5 | 46.8 |
| Sept 8 | 48.2 | 46.5 |
| Sept 7 | 47.3 | 47.3 |
| Sept 6 | 47.6 | 46.5 |
| Sept 5 | 47.6 | 46.4 |
| Sept 4 | 49.1 | 44.7 |
It's probably not 47-46. But Bush probably has lost a % or two of lead this week.
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