Kerry Tanking in Iowa Electronic Market

http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA.cfm ^

[Keith Pickering]

Actually, the Iowa market miscalled the last presidential election. (I was a member then.) The market pays on the basis of popular vote, and Bush was leading substantially until the actual returns began coming in.

[Hank All-American]

Okay, I did some checking on the site. That winner-take-all market only attempts to predict who will win. The election-vote-share market attempts to predict the spread. Here's the link to the current graph:

http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_VS.cfm

Currently, it shows a slight uptick for Kerry and downtick for Bush, but is holding rather steady at Bush .527 and Kerry .470. I read that to mean it currently is projecting a Bush win by 52/53 to 47%.

That is remarkably consistent with the RCP poll average, but of course it may be driven by that very information.

[SunkenCiv]

from 2004, may be of archival interest:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1223668/posts?page=21#21