Posted on 09/18/2004 3:38:05 PM PDT by Archangelsk
That is kind of how the "perfect storm" developed that they made a movie of. The reason I say this is that in that storm a system had moved down from canada and hit a hurricane coming up from the carribean.
John
Not even close. That hurricane was much, much, much further north, and it was the remains of a hurricane. Fronts and full fledged ones don't merge well.
If I were more computer savvy I'd post the Accuweather map next to the NHC and US Navy maps. It's hard to believe they're talking about the same storm, the forecast paths are so different.
first thing, when a storm swings around like that, that means the steering currents are not strong at all and therefore, they have no idea where the storm is going. plus, that is out to 5 days if I am not mistaken...if they show it at 3 days, then I will believe it...
remember, at 5 days out right after Ivan destroyed Grenada, they didnt have it going into the Gulf of Mexico, but rather over the Dominican and then into Miami...
You've seen way too many bad movie and TV show scripts about storms "colliding" and forming one bigger superstorm.
That doesn't actually happen, especially with tropical systems. There's no scenario where tropical systems interact forming one big system stronger than either individually.
The "Perfect Storm" is really badly misunderstood, especially the way it was poorly explained in the movie (the book was much better.)
The Perfect Storm itself was a regular, NON-tropical, winter Noreaster type storm. Hurricane Grace didn't play nearly as much of a role in its development as is portrayed, though it did play a role in it retrograding (moving W instead of East.) Far more important to the Perfect Storm was an enormous anomalous Canadian high to it's north.
To make things even MORE complicated, AFTER it had sunk the Andrea Gail, damaged New England, the Perfect Storm weakened and an actual tropical hurricane (the "unnamed hurricane") formed in the MIDDLE of the decaying Perfect Storm, but this system really didn't affect anyone; when the Perfect Storm was doing its damage it was purely nontropical.
I heard somewhere the remnant of Ivan can retrograde back west and could affect us.
No, I look at things like the 500 mb constant pressure chart, the 300 mb constant pressure chart and the long (Rossby) and short TROF waves (synoptic patterns). When you teach this stuff, you have a tendency to go a little deeper than the average Joe Snuffy (and I haven't begun to talk about BAMS, NOGAPS and the rest of the sigma products).
1)The US Navy doesn't forecast tracks in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific. All "Navy" maps for storms in these areas simply show the NHC forecast track. Since the notice the track is from NHC is in such tiny tiny type people tend not to notice it.
2) The Accuweather and the NHC tracks are actually similar, but NHC only forecasts out to FIVE days; Accuweather now forecasts out to SEVEN days (which is laughable to attempt for tropical systems, and is going to cause AccuBlunder to have some hilariously bad forecasts; however, they make it hard to see archived old forecasts at AccuBlunder, while it's easy at NHC, so AccuBlunder is hoping people don't notice their blown forecasts.) Most of the curve west is in the 5+ day period.
Second lame Hurricane Karl in a row. I want Fox News Alerts. I want evacuations. I want people fleeing before the wrath of Karl! Now I'll have to wait until 2010.
On a further note, that small finger of warm water pointing to South America is a weak El Nino event.
Thanks for the explanation.
I hope Accuweather blunders on this one although I hope it doesn't head up the coast to Va either.
Its only a rabbit.......
Joe Bastardi from Accuweather was just interviewed by Rita Crosby on Fox and he said that Ivan could actually come off the coast of Virginia and travel down the coast and over to the Gulf of Mexico again. He said it wasn't likely but it was possible and that we should keep our eye out. I guess your worries aren't that far-fetched that those two storms might find each other.
The UN Security Council is expected to issue a Resolution "strongly condemning" Hurricanes next month; and demanding that HAARP be turned OFF during all months with an 'R' in their name.
Wow, I didn't think anyone else knew about HAARP...
Actaully, HAARP is old hat.
Phase Induced Auroral Neutron Obliterator, or PIANO, is the next phase.
I dare not say too much in public, though I might mention the "hammers" for these "strings" are not padded...
I fully understand...I thought it was kook material until I researched it. I've been on that one for over a decade.
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