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Hurricane Ivan -- Thursday 9/16 thread [Landfall!]
NWS/NHC, various | 9/16/2004

Posted on 09/15/2004 7:38:29 PM PDT by lainie

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To: CobaltBlue

Does anyone know of a thread of the aftermath? Or will this be it?


961 posted on 09/17/2004 4:12:49 AM PDT by hawkk
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To: hawkk

I have been reading news reports - Perdido Key got wiped out, 20 foot surges in Pensacola, you can't get into Destin.

And no news whatsoever about Grayton Beach area.


962 posted on 09/17/2004 4:15:13 AM PDT by CobaltBlue
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To: CobaltBlue

Thanks for info. Have cell phone numbers of a few ppl I'm going to try today, will post anything if I can.


963 posted on 09/17/2004 4:21:36 AM PDT by hawkk
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To: Howlin

Yeah. It's going to be a real soggy few days for both of us.

To show you how crazy those five-day hurricane guesstimates are...at 11:00 EDT last night, the NHC 120-hour track had Jeanne parked directly over Hilton Head. Six hours later, at 120 hours, now they're saying she'll be at least 100 miles east of Jacksonville westbound for St. Augustine.

I almost wish they'd go back to issuing just three-day maps and skip the five-days...or just put a blob out after 72 hours, without a center track line. I know they tell us "look at the cone, not at the line," but it's human nature to look at that track line and think it's authoritative. And when that track line can wobble 200 miles in a six-hour period (no slam on the NHC/NWS, that's just the best they can do forecasting these things), people are going to get pissed.

Just had a hell of a rainband come through northeast Columbia. 35-40 mph winds and blinding rain for about 20 minutes and it's just started up again. And we're supposed to get these off and on all day, with long periods of no rain in between. Nothing like what the folks on the Gulf just went through, but still not much fun.

}:-)4


964 posted on 09/17/2004 4:27:46 AM PDT by Moose4 (I'm a compassionate conservative. I feel lots of pity for liberals.)
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To: Moose4

Oh yeah...and we've got another craft show next weekend, Festival in the Park, in Freedom Park, uptown Charlotte. Setup Thursday morning could be a little soggy...or worse, depending on what Jeanne does. Fifteen years ago, that show got blown apart by Hugo.

}:-)4


965 posted on 09/17/2004 4:29:25 AM PDT by Moose4 (I'm a compassionate conservative. I feel lots of pity for liberals.)
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To: hawkk; All

It is still too early for official overall damage estimates or details, but there is enough anecdotal information to begin looking for overall patterns. Note that since all this has been filtered through the media, which tends towards the sensationalistic, using it as a baseline or average will skew the damage overview worse than it really is, however, it does indicate what forces certain areas were subject to.

Gulf Breeze, Florida:
One poorly constructed residence, F4 damage (some walls standing, some foundation showing), minimum five separate residential areas totally destroyed (TD, multiple, 3 or more, houses reduced, probably by surge, to flotsam and distributed over a large debris field for each area), Oriole beach, 1 TD area, 1/4 mile debris field blocking access to Bob Sikes bridge (Gulf Breeze to P'cola beach), 30 foot section of Bob Sikes bridge missing, Amsouth Bank partially collapsed, Garcon Point and Pensacola Bay bridges closed pending inspection, known erosion under Pensacola Bay Bridge northern approach.

Pensacola Beach, Florida:
Ft. Pickens mostly flooded, shallow, two or more four story buildings missing 75% roof and 25% top floor, 4 unit condo 50% collapsed, 20+ unit apartment or condo 50% collapsed, 10 unit condo 50% collapsed, 4 story building 75% collapsed, 3 residences east of Dome Home F5 (bare foundation) damage, per sheriff via FOX-80% of residences damaged or destroyed, Naverre Causeway closed, structural damage, access to P'cola Beach by boat only.

Pensacola, Florida:
low lying areas shallow flooding, some surge (wave action) damage, but more water damage, comm. building roof collpase, area with multiple F3 (some major walls missing, most standing, roof missing)damage to residences, 3 partially collapsed commercial bldgs, 1 partially collapsed residence, 1 TD area, westside waterfront homes flooded to 4 feet, I-10 Escambia Bridge 30 foot section of eastbound deck missing, two eastbound piers possibly missing, westbound decks detached on both sides of the channel span, piers appear to be intact, the two westbound lanes may see bi-directional service prior to restoration of eastbound lanes, Highway 90 bridge over Escambra river closed, some reports indicate damage, some reports indicate debris only.

Grande Lagoon, Florida:
Reported surge to 26 feet, 12 residences F5 (bare foundation) damage, 2 fatalities reported.

Perdido Key:
No information available.

Navarre, Florida:
Condo partially collpased, Navarre Beach causeway closed, subdivision on Thresher road partially sumberged, "every convenience store from Navarre to Gulf Breeze damaged", large sections of highway 87 underwater.

Pensacola Naval Air Station:
No information available.

Gulf Shores, Alabama:
At least one cross island breach, 20 to 30' wide, main highway cut with scouring 6 to 8 feet deep, two or more half mile or greater ressidential/commercial sections still underwater, both involving the main highway, 3 story building 25% collapsed, at least two TD areas.

Orange Beach, Alabama:
2 5(+) story condo highrises 25% collapsed, F4 damage to multiple buildings, 2 20 unit condos 75% collpased.

Foley, Alabama:
Dollar General comm. building 90% collapsed.



Overall, low lying areas from Gulf Shores Alabama to Navarre, Florida, subject to storm surge suffered significant damage, while wind damage appears to have been much lighter, primarily damaging trees, power lines, roofs, windows and doors, and light commercial buildings. Wind damage largely appears to be at F2 (significant roof damage) levels or below.

Relief efforts have been hampered by bridge damage, but currently 2000+ National Guard troops are enroute or arriving via Highway 89/29. essentially blocking that route to non-relief traffic. It seems likely that significant water shortages due to transportation difficulties can be expected over the next few days.


966 posted on 09/17/2004 5:58:09 AM PDT by jeffers
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To: jeffers

thanks for update jeffers. of course nas is one that has no info, which is the area I'm looking for!! lol where did this come from?


967 posted on 09/17/2004 6:33:38 AM PDT by hawkk
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To: hawkk

The information came from about 4 hours of searching and collating online dmamge reports and photographs while taking notes. Major contributions from PNJ and a Yahoo/Reuters slideshow, plus the US MSM and the morning TV news.


968 posted on 09/17/2004 6:55:01 AM PDT by jeffers
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To: jeffers

Thank you for all your work, it's greatly appreciated. I too have been getting most of my info from PNJ, they are doing a great job.


969 posted on 09/17/2004 7:50:11 AM PDT by hawkk
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To: hawkk
Does anyone know of a thread of the aftermath?

Here you go:

HURRICANE IVAN--FREEPER CHECK IN, RECOVERY, AID REQUEST THREAD

970 posted on 09/17/2004 7:57:22 AM PDT by Gabz (Hurricanes and Kerry/Edwards have 2 things in common - hot air and destruction.)
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To: jeffers

Updates:

Highway 90 bridge now open.


971 posted on 09/17/2004 7:59:14 AM PDT by jeffers
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To: jeffers

My thanks as well.

My family evacuated and now is getting cabin fever in their hotel room in Alabama with intermittent power from the tornados that went through there.

Can't go back yet. Alabama is ok, but Santa Rosa and Escambia counties are still under curfew.

All bridges are closed. Most damaged.

Most people haven't realized that once they get power to their homes (estimated 3 weeks) that they won't be able to commute into town to go to work. This could be really bad if the Hwy 90 bridge is damaged as I've heard it might be.


972 posted on 09/17/2004 8:03:39 AM PDT by Eagle Eye (Working in a war zone; now my home town looks like one.)
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To: jeffers

It is open? GREAT!!

Where'd you get that info?


973 posted on 09/17/2004 8:04:22 AM PDT by Eagle Eye (Working in a war zone; now my home town looks like one.)
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To: jeffers

LOL....PNJ updated while I was posting!


974 posted on 09/17/2004 8:05:18 AM PDT by Eagle Eye (Working in a war zone; now my home town looks like one.)
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To: libtoken

Watch out for Karl.....


975 posted on 09/17/2004 10:47:22 AM PDT by GOP_1900AD (Stomping on "PC," destroying the Left, and smoking out faux "conservatives" - Right makes right!)
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To: Eagle Eye

That would be one heck of a detour. Seriously, a temporary ferry service would make sense.


976 posted on 09/17/2004 10:53:25 AM PDT by GOP_1900AD (Stomping on "PC," destroying the Left, and smoking out faux "conservatives" - Right makes right!)
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To: Eagle Eye

Updates:

Perdido Beach:
Up to six miles of the main road washed away

Dauphin Island:
Significant portions underwater

SW Ecambia County:
Up to 70% underwater

Navarre Causeway
Significant structural damage

I-10 Escambia Bridge:
Westbound lanes possibly open to east-west traffic in as little as 2 to 3 weeks, eastbound repair ETA unknown but expected to take longer. Current I-10 detour runs from 331 at De Funiak Springs to I-65 and back down to Mobile.

Early reports from aerial surveys indicate some multi-story buildings on barrier islands may have "tipped over".


977 posted on 09/17/2004 2:18:03 PM PDT by jeffers
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To: CobaltBlue
You asked about Grayton Beach. I see from this article that there are no reports yet.

http://www.wpmi.com/news/local/story.aspx?content_id=1107E668-294B-4979-BF15-0875D9E5FAB1

There are NO reports so far from the many beachfront communities in south Walton County and western Bay County, such as Seagrove Beach, Seaside or Grayton Beach.

978 posted on 09/17/2004 7:46:25 PM PDT by lainie
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To: Eagle Eye

Unfortunate news. Both directions of the I-10 bridge are missing piers, east of the main channel high span, with about 95% confidence.

Looking at an aerial photograph, piers are evenly spaced up to a "span" twice as long. The missing section of decking is about twice as long as that previously discussed which is visible from the west side of the high span where the truck went in.

The remaining piers are in perfect alignment, which is a good sign, for what it's worth.

I can't link to the image because it's in a Java slideshow, but I'll try and post it later if necessary.


979 posted on 09/17/2004 10:49:35 PM PDT by jeffers
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To: jeffers

If it was my bridge and my city, I'd lay wide flange shallow H beams across the missing pier on the westbound lanes, up to one inch shy of the existing road surface, plate them with bolted steel deck plates and get the inbound side open while I put a permanent fix in for the eastbound lanes.

After the eastbound lanes were open, I could go back and get the job redone right on the westbound lanes.

If the span is too great for the H beam stringers to carry the expected loads, you could cantilever the stringer beams back a couple piers on each side of the gap, break them over the pier edge closest to the missing section, hang a massive steel plate off the ends of the stringers, then use whatever depth I Beams you need to carry the load across the double span.

The stringer/plate/I beam attachments would all be in shear, capable of carrying significant loads.

Matter of fact, you could use that method for a permanent fix, provided the remaining piers adjacent to the gap are capable of supporting the point loads at either end of the long span.


980 posted on 09/17/2004 11:03:30 PM PDT by jeffers
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