Posted on 09/09/2004 9:40:24 AM PDT by K1avg
Look for most of these races to open up towards one candidate or another towards the election. I doubt we'll see more than one or two hotly-contested races (SD is looking very interesting, though). The coattail effect factors into my predictions quite a bit, although there is evidence this year that it could be less-pronounced. This should be reflected in the next several polls for these races.
Also, mod, please re-place as you wish. This seems to be the best fit in Editorial, but it can be moved to Extended or Announcements or {gasp} Personal & Bloggers, if you so desire.
Just curious - if not for the 17th amendment, how would the Senate look at this point?
Re: Your Scenario #2.
If Kerry continues to implode, watch the DNC move money OUT of the Presidential race TO key Senate races (SD, NC especially). Increased advertising funded by the DNC for Daschle and Knowles in the next month is a sure sign the DNC has thrown in the towel on Kerry, and is concentrating on avoiding big losses in the Senate.
Next to Dubya's re-election, this is perhaps the most important race this year. I'd give my left "you-know-what" to see that weenie Daschle lose. Thune's a good man, too.
I predict a 59/41 split.
Patty Murray is going down!
63-37, Repubs. The 17th gave the Senate to the big cities, which are the last hold-out of Liberal political desease.
Arm?
Great job on the analysis. On the races I am most familiar with, I think this is pretty dead-on correct: we should gain at least some seats in the Senate.
Regarding your final comment, this is really key. Conservatives need to think ahead better in terms of getting good candidates moving up through the political system.
Looking at my native SD, I can tell you that John Thune is the only person in the state who could even give Daschle a run for his money (and boy, is he doing it) -- and even there, if it weren't for the last Senate election debacle, Thune wouldn't be as well-positioned as he is. We got luckier than we knew on that one.
The reason that guys like Daschle get into office in heavily Republican states is that the SD Democratic party chooses and grooms likeable (hard to believe that he once was somewhat likeable), intelligent, well-spoken candidates. They package them well, and once they get in, they pour pork that guy's way so he can take credit.
All too often the GOP in heavily GOP states just throws up a candidate, and doesn't seem to be thinking at all. We need to get smarter in this whole process.
We need, as politically active conservatives, to identify and encourage solidly conservative candidates (social, fiscal, small government, defense) who can keep winning at higher levels of politics. We need to get good Senators into governorships to make them Presidential material, etc...
Your analysis is much better than any of the political talking heads I have seen.
I think +3 is most likely, and that +5 is the best we can realistically hope for. A lot will depend on the length of Bush's coattails. It's sickening to think about all the blown opportunities in states like ND, AR, NV, WI. If only we could have fielded strong candidates!
At least the rats have virtually NO chance of gaining seats.
Re NC..when Kerry was in the state a few days ago, Bowles was unavailable " due to scheduling conflicts"..He had an ingrown toenail removed.. So I'm more optomistic. Liddy Dole whupped Erskine two years ago..she wants to beat him again, badly..she'll drag Burr all over the state to "introduce" him to the voters..
In LA..the Dems seem to be falling apart. Jindal's running away with his Congressional race, and expect for W. to drop into the state a few times...
What's your take on the best long shot surprise pick-up for the GOP? I think it could be in Nevada.. Daschle will have to crawl under his Senate desk to hide in this session, so Reid will have to do the heavy lifting on the Senate floor for the Dems. If they decide to block everything...like the Flag descration amendment, and the Defense of Marriage act, then Reid may wear out his welcome in Nevada..
Please put me on your ping list for your next opus..regards..
Nice analysis. It's too bad the GOP wasn't successful in recruiting heavyweights in Nevada(Jim Gibbons), Arkansas(Asa Hutchinson) and North Dakota (Ed Schaefer). Talk about a chance for a rout this November!
I'm still miffed at Marc Racicot for refusing to run against Max Baucus in 2002. Looking forward to 2006, the GOP will hopefully convince Rudy Guiliani and Steve Forbes to take out HRC and Corzine, respectively.
Good work.
Case-in-point: Ohio. Ohio is not a liberal state. The Northern cities (Akron, Toledo, Cleveland mainly) are Dem, as is the eastern Appalachia. The rest is heavy GOP. Canton-Massillon area is surprisingly Republican as well despite a heavy union influence. Even in the Democrat areas, Ohio is really "blue-collar-conservative" as opposed to truly liberal. We shouldn't have to elect RINO's like Voinovich and DeWine.
Forgot Youngstown, also heavily Democrat. However, Mayor McKelvey in Y-town has endorsed Bush!
Better Voinovich and DeWine than Metzenbaum and Glenn.
Ohio is definitely not a liberal state, but it's not a conservative state either. Republican, yes, but not Conservative. Taft, for example, is a big government guy.
There are just so many scum to choose from. What to do, what to do.
Hopefully the next Governor of Ohio will be Ken Blackwell our state Treasurer.......
Wouldn't Reid move up if Daschle loses?
That is my point. Its a moderate state but one that definitely leans Republican. I do think we can elect better conservatives than Voinovich however. Taft is a pretty miserable excuse for a Republican, IMHO.
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