Poll Shows Kerry Hurt By Attacks (LA TIMES POLL Bush 49% Kerry 46%)

Political Wire ^ | August 25, 2004

[Tall_Texan]

Thanks for the hard work. What was the breakdown of the more infamous LA Times poll used earlier? How does it compare to the breakdown of this poll? Are they oversampling more Democrats this time or less? TIA.

[BushisTheMan]

Didn't the operation that Kerry and the Swift Vets were on expand after Kerry left? Perhaps that is why O'Neill was in Cambodia then?

But not on Christmas in 1968 when Nixon was President! That's the lie Kerry told -- seared, seared, seared into his memory!

[BushisTheMan]

The Swifty story will reach its natural end with the RNC Convention, where they will focus on Kerry's senate record and W's second term agenda. That's why I think Regenry is really blowing it by not having the books on the shelves NOW.

I think I disagree. I believe the Swift Vets have many more tricks up their sleeves to keep this going. One being the 28-minute documentary.

Also Ben Ginsberg (former Bush campaign lawyer) is now free to devote FULL TIME to helping the Swift Vets with election law misdeeds by others. I think he's going to find some 527s who are breaking the law then too. Dems should have shut up about this...but they are too stupid.

We'll have more on Rassmann then too. This whole Rassmann thing was a setup by Hurley -- it wasn't accidental. I can feel it in my bones. The divorced wife needs to be contacted perhaps?

Orchidgate?

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks! GWB has advocated a constitutional amendment prohibiting same-sex marriage, in the supposedly liberal, supposedly gay bastion of California. His numbers have been heading up. GWB also has a coherent immigration policy. He's also been smeared by the partisan media shills as well as the DNC and the 527 shadow organizations, while Kerry has been changing his various lies, er, stories each time he's confronted.

Got a good laugh today. There was an older van parked illegally in front of the Admiral Tobacco store, and on the back door was a bumper sticker, "Republicans for Kerry". Yeah, obviously not a Democretin claiming to be a Republican, nope. Lots of Kerry-Edwards lawn signs here in Grand Rapids Michigan. But, as I've said, while I'd love for GWB to win Michigan, I don't expect it. However...

George W. Bush will be reelected by a margin of at least ten per cent

[NYCVirago]

I think I disagree. I believe the Swift Vets have many more tricks up their sleeves to keep this going. One being the 28-minute documentary.

I believe that you're correct that they have have more to talk about, but the question is whether the media will cover it. After all, the media has not been eager to investigate this story in the first place; the only reason it had legs was because Kerry demanded the book and ads be pulled. It will be easy once the convention starts for the media to proclaim that this is old news and move on. Never mind that they never seem to move on from calling Bush AWOL, or talking about Bush reading My Pet Goat! It's unfair, but that's the way the media works.

[luvbach1]

This could be significant. LA Times is known to skew polls to the Demonrats. They must have messed up on this one.

[BushisTheMan]

Respectfully, I hope you are wrong.

I think, like last time, the public got interested and demanded more information about it. Everyone, including the likes of O'Reilly, tried to poo-poo it. But it had legs.

Now these guys just need to be more creative in getting the word out. I think they will. Everyone has underestimated them so far.

[NYCVirago]

Respectfully, I hope you are wrong.

Heck, I also hope I'm wrong on this!

[dvwjr]

Originally posted by Tall_Texan:

"Thanks for the hard work. What was the breakdown of the more infamous LA Times poll used earlier? How does it compare to the breakdown of this poll? Are they oversampling more Democrats this time or less? TIA."

The controversial LA Times poll released June 10th, 2005 had the following results for 1,230 registered voters nation-wide:

 48% - Kerry
 42% - Bush
  4% - Nader
  6% - Don't know
******************
100% - Total

"The Times poll post-stratifies the data using updated census figures on sex, race/ethnicity, age, education and region and does not weight for party ID," said Ms. Pinkus, the Times polling director.

Political affiliation was a "moving variable," she said, adding that "the way other reputable polling organizations handle this is unknown to me, and possibly different."

"I feel sorry for her," said a pollster who asked not to be identified. "But she should have known better."

With the LA Times poll director saying that her numbers were: 


 38% - Democrats
 25% - Republicans
 24% - Independents
 13% - Other (???)
*******************
100% - Total

Source: The Washington Times - June 16, 2004. L.A. Times poll draws GOP fire, by Jennifer Harper.

dvwjr

[broadsword]

What's hurting Johnhamed al Qerry? Is it really the Swifties or the fact that he is an empty shirt, a liar, a phony and a substanceless poser?

My guess is that it's the latter.

[broadsword]

Oh, and a gaywad girlyman who is afraid of a football.

[Tall_Texan]

Democrats 38%
Republicans 25%
Independents 24%
Other Democrats 13%

BTW, it truly would be controversial if the results were released June 10, 2005.

[dvwjr]

Darn those typos...

I still can't figure out what the other 13% of the polling sample was. If you are not a Republican or Democrat, by definition even if you are a member of the Communist party, you count as "Independent"...


Must be me.


dvwjr

[dvwjr]

Darn those typos...

I still can't figure out what the other 13% of the polling sample was. If you are not a Republican or Democrat, by definition even if you are a member of the Communist party, you count as "Independent"...


Must be me.


dvwjr

[lawgirl]

Is this nationwide or just california? Because if its california- everyone get their affairs in order- the world is about to end!

[lawgirl]

HAHAHAHAH!!!!

[mtngrl@vrwc]

Is this nationwide or just california? Because if its california- everyone get their affairs in order- the world is about to end!

I don't think it's California. Rasmussen shows that in California (as of August 3rd) it's Kerry over Bush 55-37. :-/

[mtngrl@vrwc]

Today Rasmussen updated California's poll results and it is now Kerry 51% - Bush 42%

"August 28, 2004--On the eve of the Republican National Convention, Senator John Kerry's lead in California is half what is was a month ago."

"In the Golden State, the latest Rasmussen Reports survey finds Senator John F. Kerry with 51% of the vote and President George W. Bush with 42%. Our previous California survey showed Kerry with an 18-point lead, 55% to 37%. Two months ago, Kerry had an 8-point lead in California."