New Poll out of CO - 47-47 Tie -(SUSA) -

RCP ^ | TMP

[ultima ratio]

The only press story showing a 70%-30% Jewish vote was one that appeared in a notoriously leftwing newspaper--and nobody ever heard of the group that did the study. I suspect it was deliberate misinformation. Other indicators show Bush winning more of the Jewish vote in FL and other key states.

[ZULU]

"GWB should not have reappointed him "

I agree.

Greescam in the Federal Reserve, Mineta in Transportation, Whitman in Environment and Tom Kean as head of 9-1-1 were Bush's major mis-appointments.

[WOSG]

"Right now, my only concern is the number of people who have let the media war against Bush on Iraq/economy affect their opinions. The GOP has done a piss poor job since the 1st of the year with their message. Public opinion has been established by the opposition. Hopefully the convention will change that.
Agree 100% - WE have lost the premise on both the economy and Iraq (2 of the 3 biggest issues) - And the inability of the GWB reelection team to put out any effective, coherent message on the economy and Iraq....only further shows why we needed a ground game with GWB supporting 527's -"

Yup. There is a "problem" with how weak our GOP regulars are in the art of *IDEOLOGICAL WARFARE* for a lack of a better word. This is more than just spin; this is the deliberate planting, cultivationg and propagation of certain facts, ideas and themes.

The liberals run rings around conservatives, except for folks like Rush. Note how the false phony and absurd "Bush and saudi family" slander went from the kooky DU chat rooms, to Michael Moore's brain, to a horrible movie, and then to a speech by Kerry ... that gets applause!:-(

I've seen how misinformed opinion has been on Iraq, that is why I created this blog to add some balance:

http://freedomstruth.blogspot.com

[POA2]

I live in PA. There are no Kerry signs up anywhere. I don't sense the fervor on their side.

Not sure what to make of this - Perhaps you live in a GOP section of the State - all I know is Kerry leads in 20 of the past 22 polls taken - And leads in the past 11 polls straight -

If GWB lead in 20 of the past 22 polls out of a State we would all say it was a safe GWB State - (need to be consistent)

[Crimson Elephant]

Here are some things for the worriers to think about. I don't believe the internals of the polls have been adjusted (or indeed they know HOW to adjust) for reality after 9/11. The elections of 2002 again have to be taken into account. Everyone in the media was floored by that. Why? It didn't show up in the polling. This is the first national election since then, and there is no way for the pollsters to accurately gauge the "new" breakdown. Therefore polls that have a margin of error of 3% might actually have a HIGHER margin of error, because they HAVE to be based on ASSUMPTIONS of the electorate breakdown.

The Gallup poll is HUGE news because Bush is at 50% in the most historically accurate poll (AFAIK--over time at least) even with the aforestated problems inherent. Another hint is that his approval is over 50 EVEN IN POLLS WHERE KERRY LEADS...that means something.

Just a 3% shift in identification from moderate to conservative due to 9/11, with a huge increase in LIKELIHOOD TO VOTE, combined with a 3.5% margin of error EITHER WAY.....and you can see that there can be HUGE gulfs in reality vs polls this time.

A counter argument is that the Iraq war had taken the sheen off of those "conversions" but the reality is that it will take this 2004 election to see if a shift has truly occured...the polls CANNOT POSSIBLY know that yet.

The answer to your worries...GO VOTE..even in a state that is a slam dunk either way..drive up the popular vote....make sure your friends vote. If we all vote like its a 50-50 race we can turn it into a 53-47 race.

[Hildy]

WE HAVEN'T HAD OUR CONVENTION. You're playing right into their hands.

[ultima ratio]

Bush has NOT run a mediocre campaign. His rallies have been masterful, showing him in full command of facts and relating warmly to people. He has entrapped K into admitting the war in Iraq was justified. Cheney has ridiculed K's "sensitive war" comment. He has announced troop demobilization in Europe. He has put K on the defensive. That's just on the surface. The real story about his campaign is what you don't see--the grass roots organization below the radar.

[Hermann the Cherusker]

I live in occupied Soviet Philadelphia, albeit in a Republican refuge in the city.

[POA2]

WE HAVEN'T HAD OUR CONVENTION. You're playing right into their hands.

Who's hands? I am talking about how ineffective the GWB reelection team has been - That is the issue! -

Secondly....I don't think the Convention will have long legs -(so to speak) - First the DEM convention didn't produce much - the public tuned it out - probably the same will happen to ours? -

Historically incumbent conventions don't produce much - We have to be aware of this and cannot expect a large bounce-

The fact is....we are right on the issue, we are right on the facts - we just need an effective, coherent plan to get this information out - as of now it seems the GWB reelection team is incapable of getting a successful message out!

[POA2]

His rallies have been masterful, showing him in full command of facts

I have been to 2 rallies as well - and GWB was great in both - However, this is preaching to the choir -

An effective daily message making it on to the airwaves is what wins - No one can deny the GWB reelection team has been inept at getting a successful message out in terms of the economy and the war in Iraq -

[WOSG]

Excuse me but there was a prime-time presser in April on Iraq, there was last september speech on Iraq, there was a may speech on Iraq (ignored by press), there was the July Oak Ridge speech on Iraq.

I know - the press keeps ignoring it.
Bush should have more press conferences, but if its anything like April it goes: Great opening statement; then attempts to answer hostile question after hostile question, leaving Bush flustered and stumbling to answer obvious 30-second-attack-ad bait like "tell us your biggest mistake?"

Bush is *great* on the stump ... go to my blog and look at his comments on Iraq, they are good. Alas, he doesnt go into detail justification and point-by-point rebuttal. But when the Bush camp does, the media yawns. He brings Iraq nuke material back to Tennessee....

I'd like to see a polling question of people:

"How much potentially weaponizable nuclear material did Saddam possess?

1) None
2) 500 pounds
3) 500 tons

How many bombs could this material help create?
1) 4 bombs
2) 40 bombs
3) 140 bombs

and see how many get the right answer (#3 for both).

It's hard. When Bush does well, the press ignores it.
When Bush stumbles, 1000 cameras show up.

[WOSG]

"GWB has never addressed the nation via a prime time speech to set the record straight in Iraq"

To set the record straight, Bush has done that in September 2003 and in April 2004. And in May 2004, he gave a prime time address that networks should have carried but didnt, on the plans for Iraq.

[POA2]

To set the record straight, Bush has done that in September 2003 and in April 2004. And in May 2004, he gave a prime time address that networks should have carried but didnt, on the plans for Iraq.

Wrong - To set the record straight - in none of those speeches did GWB REQUEST air time - He just said it would be "nice" if the networks covered the speech - (well, only a fool would think they would) -

When GWB talked to the Country about Stem Cell he REQUESTED AIR TIME AS THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES - when this happens the networks are pretty much forced to cover the President! -

GWB has not ONCE requested air time to talk to the nation over Iraq (since the war began) -

[Hildy]

The message is getting out, it's just not being broadcast by the big 3, and it won't. This one-sided reporting has been a long time in the making. The Press is intent on not covering anything that's beneficial to the right. I don't know what more the campaign can do. What are your suggestions?

[comebacknewt]

We don't need a huge bounce out of our convention. A modest five point bump would dramatically change the dynamics of this race. Anything more than that and we are in outstanding shape.

[WOSG]

"The fact is....we are right on the issue, we are right on the facts - we just need an effective, coherent plan to get this information out "

Other than "Steal all Soros' money and use it to buy the mainstream media and end their bias" I cant think of much more than what is being tried already.

In the tradition 'ground game' the Bush camp is doing what it can. They are competent and solid; the stump speeches are good .... the 'missing element' is the hard-nosed response to Kerry's lies and the left that give the media a buzz and turns around the lamestream press.

Here is something I think we can all do.
Write letters to the editor and the media.
I believe this WILL make a difference this season.

If you feel there is a message not getting out there ... get it out there yourself!

In the time it takes to write a single response on FR, you can write and send a letter to the editor by email ... 5 minutes or less. That can change minds and change the debate.

Do it a million times and we can change the election.

[POA2]

The Press is intent on not covering anything that's beneficial to the right. I don't know what more the campaign can do. What are your suggestions?

Agree with you about the media 100% - But the GWB camp knew this for 4 years! and have to deal with it -

What should we be doing or have done -

GWB should have addressed the nation (with requested air-time) at least twice now since the War with Iraq - Setting the record straight, giving us a sit-rep, etc -

With regard to the economy - the GWB reelection team should have been putting out a "daily economic success story" - Each story could have been located in a battle-ground State - This bypasses the liberal national press and gets tons of local coverage hight lighting the success of the US economy -

More effective ads regarding the economy should have been running early - Talking about the success of the economy - There are dozens of economic indicators which show growing rates not seen in over 20 years! - The public needs to be made aware of this positive news -

The 527 issue - This is killing us - One of the major ways of getting around the media is to run ads - yet we gave this issue away - We are being outspent by over $150 + million - (GWB supporting 527's could have made a HUGE difference in battle ground Sates!)

[VRWC_minion]

Lets see, using your logic. Best Bush can do is .5% over his jop approval rating. 49.7 +.5 ='s 50.20. Bush wins popular vote and has easy electoral win.

Or have you decided to leave this argument alone now seeing the recent trend no longer supports your premise ?

President George W. Bush - Job Approval Ratings
Poll	Date	Approve	Disapprove	Spread
RCP Average	8/9 - 8/14	49.7%	49.0%	+0.7%
Zogby	8/12- 8/14	47%	52%	-5%
Rasmussen	8/12 - 8/14	51%	49%	+2%
Gallup	8/9- 8/11	51%	46%	+5%
Click Here to See All Job Approval Poll Data

[KC_Conspirator]

That does not surprise me. That happens all the time and its sad. However, all you have to do is donate 10$ to the Bush campaign and you will recive so much political mail that it will make you sick as your name goes on list after list.

[ultima ratio]

Most of the states you mention are comfortably in the Bush camp. No way Bush will lose any one of them. Ohio is out of the woods and will be difficult for K to win--even the Boston Globe admitted a few days ago he had not made the sale. FL is not going to be close this time, believe me. Ralph Reed has been organizing in the state for more than two years. Read yesterday's Gallup report.