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CHARLEY BECOMES A (CATEGORY 4 Now!!) HURRICANE (18 ft. storm surge)
NHC ^ | 08-13-2004 | Forecaster Lawrence

Posted on 08/13/2004 10:08:09 AM PDT by Jeff400000

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To: VeniVidiVici

it looks like it will hit orlando, then track right down I4 to Daytona. very bad, that's a very populated corridor I believe.


1,981 posted on 08/13/2004 5:26:51 PM PDT by oceanview
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To: Amelia
Most recent shows it 50 or so miles east of FL out in the ocean.

Correction: east of GA

Post #1908 shows projected path.

Though Savannah is not in the heart of the projected path, this is based on Math Models.

I recently learned that there was a lot of error in this until recently because of how they computations.

Don't base your life on a Math Model.

Charley went from Cat 2 to Cat 4 like sh*t through a Goose, and that should be a warning to anyone that is potentially on its path.

The model in 1908 is saying winds >73 MPH, but it does not say how much. Also, even out in the Atlantic, this storm could spawn 20 to 50 tornados in the Savannah area (potentially). I remember one Hurricane that did this, but I can't remember.

The model on #1908 shows Savannah on the edge, but that is only if they are correct in their predictions.

I have learned the hard way (30 years of working on computers and a fairly high IQ of 130) that God is the only one I put my trust in.

It is on our Money for a good reason.

A lot of blood has been spilled for us to be free and allowed to put that slogan on our money.

Jeb and Columba, during the heat of the 2000 election, left Florida to go pray about the election in Columba's home country of Mexico. They made a special petition of God about the election of Jeb's brother George W.

So I would follow Jeb and what he did.

Any computer can be hit by a BETA particle and that can ruin your whole day.

So I would not bet on supercomputers to save your rear end.

1,982 posted on 08/13/2004 5:27:41 PM PDT by topher
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To: VeniVidiVici

Although I live in Raleigh, I've got a place in Atlantic Beach, NC.... Debating on whether to drive the three hours to try to batten down the hatches.

The siding is vinyl siding, so plywood is out of the question....

Question: Are sandbags worth it ?(the cottage is on pilings/stilts; only a garage is on the ground level.


1,983 posted on 08/13/2004 5:28:00 PM PDT by disraeligears
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To: disraeligears

Thoughts and prayers to everyone in it's path.


1,984 posted on 08/13/2004 5:28:49 PM PDT by ChadGore (Vote Bush. He's Earned It.)
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To: rwfromkansas

Assistance line #239-656-2300

If you live in the area and need assistance - Ft. Myers IIRC - they gave this number to a resident whose food is going to spoil in the fridge...


1,985 posted on 08/13/2004 5:29:16 PM PDT by ApesForEvolution (DemocRATS are communists and want to destroy America only to replace it with the USSA)
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To: oceanview

Orlando to Daytona is bumper to bumper...on race day...


1,986 posted on 08/13/2004 5:30:29 PM PDT by ApesForEvolution (DemocRATS are communists and want to destroy America only to replace it with the USSA)
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To: disraeligears

is it right on the coastline? from the track that has been shown so far, that looks like a very vulnerable area, but the flip side is that it should be a CAT 1 by then.


1,987 posted on 08/13/2004 5:30:50 PM PDT by oceanview
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To: oceanview

Eye is now into Osceola County, right south of Intercession City....

Headed for I-4 at Hwy 192, Disney World, International Drive, and Universal Studios.

And everything else on the west side of Orlando!


1,988 posted on 08/13/2004 5:31:07 PM PDT by Robert A Cook PE (I can only donate monthly, but Kerry's ABBCNNBCBS continue to lie every day!))
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To: disraeligears
Are sandbags worth it

I wouldn't think so. Maybe just for the garage.

It really depends on what this thing does after it crosses FL. It's a very fast mover and they are saying it's going to pick up speed.

1,989 posted on 08/13/2004 5:31:25 PM PDT by VeniVidiVici (Designate - Infiltrate - Annihilate // Read my lips: More new taxes - John Kerry)
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To: Robert A. Cook, PE

That's exactly the track it's taking, but that's the eye. Poinciana is getting mauled, you can be sure.


1,990 posted on 08/13/2004 5:31:28 PM PDT by jayef
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To: ApesForEvolution

866GETINFO

Phone number for Red Cross available to anyone needing basic services...etc.


1,991 posted on 08/13/2004 5:31:56 PM PDT by ApesForEvolution (DemocRATS are communists and want to destroy America only to replace it with the USSA)
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To: Howlin; All
I spoke to my sons about an hour ago. They are in Deland, it's too late to go anywhere. The folks from Tampa evacuated to Orlando, now it's headed to Orlando. It may be more dangerous to be on the road than just to sit tight.

Maybe next time they will listen to their mother.

Howlin' and all, Say a prayer for my four J's (Josh, Jenn, Jacob, and Jandi).

1,992 posted on 08/13/2004 5:32:32 PM PDT by CFW
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To: oceanview

If it is going to regain strength, it will start picking up water from the Atlantic pretty soon: But it's also after dark, so the rising air will be a bit cooler than mid-afternoon.


1,993 posted on 08/13/2004 5:32:52 PM PDT by Robert A Cook PE (I can only donate monthly, but Kerry's ABBCNNBCBS continue to lie every day!))
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To: Robert A. Cook, PE

Is Clermont in harm's way?


1,994 posted on 08/13/2004 5:33:00 PM PDT by ApesForEvolution (DemocRATS are communists and want to destroy America only to replace it with the USSA)
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To: ApesForEvolution

No - it's going east of there.


1,995 posted on 08/13/2004 5:34:11 PM PDT by al_again
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To: ApesForEvolution

Where's the nearest radar url for Central Florida?


1,996 posted on 08/13/2004 5:34:29 PM PDT by ApesForEvolution (DemocRATS are communists and want to destroy America only to replace it with the USSA)
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To: jayef

You're right - We can "see" the eye clearly on the radar, but the wind wall (around the eye) is equally, if not more damaging, and more likely to carry tornadoes.

Just because the eye misses a city, that doesn't mean the city (or little town) didn't pick up a LOT of damage.


1,997 posted on 08/13/2004 5:34:43 PM PDT by Robert A Cook PE (I can only donate monthly, but Kerry's ABBCNNBCBS continue to lie every day!))
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To: al_again

Good, thx...


1,998 posted on 08/13/2004 5:34:54 PM PDT by ApesForEvolution (DemocRATS are communists and want to destroy America only to replace it with the USSA)
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To: CFW

The Melbourne radar shows the t-storm band at the very top suddenly getting blown to the east. Is that Mr. Charles interacting with the trough? Will we see a more easterly shift soon?


1,999 posted on 08/13/2004 5:34:54 PM PDT by NonValueAdded (When it came to Intelligence, Kerry was absent)
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To: NonValueAdded

I bet


2,000 posted on 08/13/2004 5:35:15 PM PDT by ApesForEvolution (DemocRATS are communists and want to destroy America only to replace it with the USSA)
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