Posted on 07/01/2004 9:35:41 PM PDT by DoctorZIn
Middle East Weapons Proliferation: Lessons From Iraq and Beyond
June 30, 2004
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
David Albright and Michael Eisenstadt
On June 24, 2004, David Albright and Michael Eisenstadt addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security, has served as an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) weapons inspector in Iraq. Mr. Eisenstadt is a senior fellow at The Washington Institute, specializing in military and security affairs. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
New Lessons Regarding Proliferation
The culmination of Operation Iraqi Freedom has given rise to much debate concerning the exact nature of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs. Similarly, ongoing negotiations with Iran regarding its nuclear activities have also been dogged by imprecise intelligence and unclear strategies. Both of these cases have led many to realize that noncompliance with weapons inspections does not automatically indicate the existence of hidden weapons programs. Although the Senate Intelligence Committee has yet to issue its report on Iraqi WMD, one could reasonably argue that the situation in Iraq during the 1990s served as an example of how inspections can provide a powerful deterrent against covert WMD activity. At present, it is too early to establish with any certainty the exact nature of Iraqi WMD prior to the invasion. Just as some prewar analyses were mistaken when they claimed to know precisely where Iraq's weapons stockpiles were, it would now be erroneous to declare that the country possessed no WMD before the war or that such weapons are not present there today. One must remain open to various possibilities until history comes down conclusively on either side.
Iraqi WMD Before and During the War
Recent analysis of why Iraq did not use WMD during the war has raised several different theories as to the state of the country's WMD programs and Saddam Husayn's strategy regarding such weapons. Beginning in 1991, major portions of Iraq's relatively large stockpile of chemical and biological weapons were slowly uncovered and destroyed, due to both UN inspections and internal Iraqi calculations. By 1995-1996, Baghdad decided that it made little sense to maintain large WMD stockpiles, which were far too easy for inspectors to find and destroy. Hence, one could reasonably conclude that Iraq might have retained a small strategic reserve or breakout capability in its biological and, perhaps, chemical weapons programs. Under such a strategy, the former regime could have retained its nonconventional capabilities while still feigning full cooperation with the UN by permitting credible inspections. Such capabilities -- and the specter of their potential use -- could have helped Saddam save face regionally while simultaneously keeping his internal and external enemies at bay.
These possibilities lead to an obvious question: if the former regime possessed WMD prior to the invasion, why did it refrain from using them against coalition forces during the war, as was anticipated by many? Several different answers are plausible:
The prewar prediction that the regime would deploy WMD may have been incorrect; i.e., Iraq either did not have such capabilities or was unable to use them due to technical or time constraints.
The country's WMD programs may have been in disarray due to corruption and the social effects that international sanctions had on Iraqi scientists. In addition, one should not underestimate the effect that Hussein Kamel's defection and death in 1995 had on those programs, as he was an effective manager who had accounted for much of the initiative behind the project. Finally, Saddam's psychological state, especially rumors of his withdrawn nature in the run-up to the war, might have played a factor in the program's lack of initiative or corruption.
The Iraqi political hierarchy might have decided that chemical or biological weapons would simply not be effective against the U.S. military, which was equipped to weather such attacks.
The use of biological or chemical weapons did not fit with Saddam's political strategy for surviving the war. According to this strategy, if Iraqi conventional forces could have held off U.S. forces, especially outside of Baghdad, then Russia or France might have intervened on Iraq's behalf. Such a strategy would not have been politically feasible if Iraq resorted to WMD.
Saddam might have been optimistic about the abilities of his conventional military forces and fully expected them to win the war. Under such a scenario, Iraq might have sent its WMD to Syria before the war with the intention of retrieving them after the invasion was successfully thwarted.
Iranian Intransigence and the Role of Inspections
Recent events in Iran and the nascent status of the country's nuclear weapons program have emphasized the need for a coherent U.S. policy regarding WMD proliferation in the Middle East. The Bush administration's current stance -- that Iran has a secret nuclear weapons program that cannot be proven but must be destroyed -- does not provide many concrete policy options for moving forward. Much of the purported intelligence regarding Iran's nuclear weapons program is distorted and inconclusive, and additional IAEA inspections are needed. Moreover, the United States and European Union (EU) must collaborate on formulating a definitive timeline for Iranian cooperation and action, as well as serious punitive measures if Tehran fails to meet the terms of the agreement.
Inconclusive intelligence aside, one cannot discount Iran's apparent intransigence in October 2003 regarding its nuclear proliferation agreement with the EU. Although Tehran divulged some information about its nuclear activities, it may also have gained the diplomatic and political cover needed to hide more serious developments. Reported inconsistencies in Iran's initial disclosures included not revealing its activities related to the German-made P2 centrifuge, which is more effective at extracting enriched uranium than Iran's declared P1 centrifuge. Subsequently, Tehran admitted to conducting a small research program into the capabilities of the P2. Soon thereafter, however, evidence was uncovered indicating that the country had attempted to import large quantities of components for a working P2 machine. In addition, Tehran is not honoring its most recent commitments to the EU, which included refraining from further uranium enrichment, halting any efforts to build heavy-water reactors, and removing spent fuel rods from Iran. The Iranian nuclear program remains poised to resume centrifuge production for enrichment purposes, and evidence of uranium hexafluoride (used only in heavy-water reactors) has been found. Tensions are high, and the risk of confrontation is very real. Satellite photos of the Natanz nuclear site have shown a substantial hardening against land and air attacks, demonstrating that Iran is indeed worried about a preemptive strike on its WMD capabilities. At the same time, U.S. intelligence has assessed that it would take the Iranians until at least the end of this decade to assemble a working nuclear bomb.
The Worldwide Proliferation Threat
The IAEA has begun to grasp the global nature of WMD proliferation and the need for new measures in addition to inspections. As in the past, foreign aid and technical assistance will play an increasingly integral role in the buildup of viable WMD programs worldwide. The nuclear black market network run by former Pakistani nuclear chief Abdul Qadeer Khan is but the most glaring example of individual entrepreneurship in the global WMD trade. To counteract this growing threat, the IAEA has begun to crack down on dual-use exports to certain countries by promoting a treaty-based export control system. Despite the weak regulations in place in many countries, the agency has had success with tightening controls in certain key nations. Yet, problems remain in other countries that have particularly weak domestic regulations and are new to the proliferation market. Pakistan is a clear example of this problem. The IAEA has taken steps to investigate the Khan network in the context of Iran. Yet, focusing similar attention on Iran's external sources of WMD equipment and expertise would give inspectors a better understanding of the Iranian nuclear program and its attempts at weaponization. One should not underestimate the effects of U.S. and international efforts to curb WMD proliferation. Nevertheless, a clearer understanding of the lessons from Iraq and Iran is imperative if these efforts are to succeed in the Middle East and beyond.
This Special Policy Forum Report was prepared by Neri Zilber.
http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/watch/Policywatch/policywatch2004/880.htm
Partial listing of the Worldwide Commemorative Actions of the Students Uprising of July 1999
SMCCDI (Public Announcement)
Jul 14, 2004
Iranians are preparing themselves for another show of rejection of the Islamic regime. Thousands are expected to come into the Iranian streets in order to support the Iranian Student Movement and Secularist forces seeking Regime Change in Iran.
In addition and in their support, the Iranian Diaspora is getting united in order to organize , in addition to special editions planned by most Iranian and Persian speaking satellite TV and radio networks, demos which will take place in most European and N. American cities.
A partial listing of these actions:
Main cities, Iran (On 07/08/2004)
Thousands of Iranians are expected to come into streets and squares of most Iranian cities and to support the planned actions of students and opposition groups. These wide spread protest gatherings will take place in order to commemorate the legacy of the "Epic of the Students Uprising of July 9, 1999" and in order to show the popular rejection of the entire system of the Islamic republic regime.
These demonstrations are estimated to be extremly bloody as the Islamic regime which has increased the repression, intends to smash the popular actions.
On Thursday, July 8th, 2004
In all Iranian streets and squares, especially in the Enghelab, Amir Abad, Azadi, Baharestan, Narmak, Tehran Pars and Madar areas of the Iranian Capital.
Dallas, (TX/US) (On 07/11/2004)
SMCCDI organizes the commemoration of the anniversary of July 9-14, 1999, Student Uprising of Iran and its legacy.
Participants will cherish the memories of those fallen during the bloody governmental crackdown on the 5 glorious days of students protests.
Sunday, July 11, 2004
From 05:00 PM (Local time)
At the "Le Gala" room of the "Intercontinental Hotel" (former Kempenski) located at the junctions of North Dallas Parkway and Arrapaho Rd.
Düsseldorf, Germany (On 07/10/2004)
The Iranian community will march in order to commemorate the Student Uprising of July 9-14, 1999, and to demonstrate their solidarity with enchained Iranians.
The demonstrators will request the end of the German government's collaboration with the Islamic regime and pressures on the Mullahcracy in order to respect Human Rights in Iran and to step down from political power.
Saturday, July 10, 2004
From 14:00 (Local time)
From Banhoff toward the City Court
Paris, France (On 07/10/2004)
SMCCDI organizes the commemoration of the July 9-14, 1999, Student Uprising Iran and its legacy. This demonstration will follow the SMCCDI Demo of July 8, 2004, in front of the regime's Embassy.
Participants will cherish the memories of those fallen during the bloody governmental crackdown on the 5 glorious days of students protests.
On Saturday, July 10, 2004
From 16:00 till 18:00 (local time)
Place du Trocadero
Heidelberg, Germany (On 07/10/2004)
The Iranian community will gather in order to commemorate the Student Uprising of July 9-14, 1999, and to demonstrate their solidarity with enchained Iranians.
The demonstrators will request the end of the German government's collaboration with the Islamic regime and pressures on the Mullahcracy in order to respect Human Rights in Iran and to step down from political power.
Saturday, July 10, 2004
From 15:00 till 17:00 (Local time)
At the Bismark Platz (town center)
Washington (DC/US) (On 07/08/2004)
The Iranian community will gather in the US Capital in order to commemorate the Student Uprising of July 9-14, 1999, and to demonstrate their solidarity with enchained Iranians.
The demonstrators will request the public moral support of the Iranian secularist movement and the US pressure for free elections in Iran.
Thursday, July 8, 2004
From 11:00 AM (Local time)
At the West side of the US Capitol Building
Göteborg, Sweden (On 07/08/2004)
Iranians and Swedish freedom lovers will gather for the commemoration of the July 9-14, 1999, Student Uprising of Iran and its legacy. They will show their rejection of the Islamic republic and cherish the memories of those fallen during the bloody governmental crackdown on the 5 glorious days of students protests.
On Thursday, July 8, 2004
From 17:30 (local time)
From the Gustaf Adolfs Torg toward Glatsen
Gotenborg
Paris, France (On 07/08/2004)
SMCCDI organizes for the 3rd consecutive year the commemoration of the July 9-14, 1999, Student Uprising of Iran and its legacy.
It's to note that this demonstration will take place in the Capital of the Islamic regime's closet ally, in front of the Islamic Republic Embassy.
Participants will show their rejection of the Islamic regime and cherish the memories of those fallen during the bloody governmental crackdown on the 5 glorious days of students protests.
On Thursday, July 8, 2004
From 19:00 till 21:00 (local time)
Place de l'Iena
Ottawa, Canada (On 07/08/2004)
Iranians will gather for the 2nd consecutive day in front of the Islamic republic's Embassy in order to condemn the persistent repression in Iran and in order to cherish the legacy of the Students Uprising of 1999.
They will also ask from the Canadian government to pressure the Islamic regime in order to bring to an open court of justice the murderers of Zahra Kazemi the Iranian Canadian journalist killed by agents of the regime
Thursday July 8, 2004
From 10:00 AM (local time)
In front of the Islamic republic Embassy located at 245 metclafe
Helsinki, Finland (On 07/08/2004)
The Iranian community will gather in order to commemorate the Student Uprising of July 9-14, 1999, and to demonstrate their solidarity with enchained Iranians.
Thursday, July 08, 2004
From 12:00 PM (Local time)
In front of the main church of Helsinki
Hamburg, Germany (On 07/08/2004)
The Iranian community will gather in order to commemorate the Student Uprising of July 9-14, 1999, and to demonstrate their solidarity with enchained Iranians.
The demonstrators will request the end of the German government's collaboration with the Islamic regime and pressures on the Mullahcracy in order to respect Human Rights in Iran and to step down from political power.
Thursday, July 8, 2004
From 12:00 PM (Local time)
At west side of the Central Train Station (Hopt Banhoff)
London, UK (On 07/08/2004)
Iranians will gather, in front of the regime's Embassy, for the commemoration of the July 9-14, 1999, Student Uprising of Iran and its legacy. They will show their rejection of the Islamic republic and cherish the memories of those fallen during the bloody governmental crackdown on the 5 glorious days of students protests.
They'll also denounce the support made, by Jack Straw and the Britsh circles, of the Mullahcracy.
On Thursday, July 8, 2004
From 12:00 till 16:00 (local time)
In front of the Islamic republic Embassy
Odense, Danemark (On 07/08/2004)
Iranians will gather for the commemoration of the July 9-14, 1999, Student Uprising of Iran and its legacy. They will show their rejection of the Islamic republic and cherish the memories of those fallen during the bloody governmental crackdown on the 5 glorious days of students protests.
On Thursday, July 8, 2004
From 16:00 till 18:00 (local time)
In front of the City Hall (Mayor office)
Stockholm, Sweden (On 07/08/2004)
Iranians will gather for the commemoration of the July 9-14, 1999, Student Uprising of Iran and its legacy. They will show their rejection of the Islamic republic and cherish the memories of those fallen during the bloody governmental crackdown on the 5 glorious days of students protests.
On Thursday, July 8, 2004
From 16:00 till 19:00 (local time)
In Center of Stockholm, Sergels Torg
Den Haag, Netherlands (On 07/08/2004)
Iranians will gather for the 2nd consecutive day for the commemoration of the July 9-14, 1999, Student Uprising of Iran and its legacy. They will show their rejection of the Islamic republic and cherish the memories of those fallen during the bloody governmental crackdown on the 5 glorious days of students protests.
On Thursday, July 8, 2004
From 13:00 (local time)
In front of the Dutch Parliament
Toronto, Canada (On 07/08/2004)
The Iranian community will gather in order to commemorate the Student Uprising of July 9-14, 1999, and to demonstrate their solidarity with enchained Iranians.
The demonstrators will request for the Canadian government's pressure on the Islamic regime in order to respect Human Rights and to bring to an open justice the murderers of Zahra Kazemi, the Iranian Canadian journalist killed last year by the regime.
Thursday, July 8, 2004
From 06:00 PM (Local time)
At the Mel Lastman Square, (hear of North York, north of Toronto)
München, Germany (On 07/08/2004)
The Iranian community will gather in order to commemorate the Student Uprising of July 9-14, 1999, and to demonstrate their solidarity with enchained Iranians.
The demonstrators will request the end of the German government's collaboration with the Islamic regime and pressures on the Mullahcracy in order to respect Human Rights in Iran and to step down from political power.
Thursday, July 8, 2004
From 17:00 till 18:00 (Local time)
At the Stachus square
Munich
Los Angeles, (CA/US) (On 07/07/2004)
The Iranian community of S. California, along with opposition groups such as SMCCDI, will gather in order to commemorate the Student Uprising of July 9-14, 1999, and to demonstrate their solidarity with enchained Iranians. Held a day earlier than inside Iran, in order to show the Diaspora's solidarity, a protest march will also take place at the same occasion.
Wednesday, July 7, 2004
From 05:00 PM (Local time)
In front of the Federal Building located at Wilshire Blvd. in Westwood
Palo Alto, (CA/US) (On 07/07/2004)
The Iranian community of San Francisco will gather near the Stanford University in order to commemorate the Student Uprising of July 9-14, 1999, and to demonstrate their solidarity with enchained Iranians.
Wednesday, July 7, 2004
From 05:30 PM (Local time)
At the University Ave, near the Burger King Plaza
In Palo Alto.
Brussels, Belgium (On 07/07/2004)
Iranians will gather in front of the European Union's Building in order to condemn the support of the illegitimate Islamic republic regime by main European countries.
The will cherish the memories of all those fallen for the cause of Freedom and Secularity in Iran and especially the students who uprised in July 9, 1999.
On Wedenesday July 7, 2004
From 14:00 till 16:00 (local time)
In front of the EU building in Place Maurice Schumann
Ottawa, Canada (On 07/07/2004)
Iranians will gather in front of the Islamic republic's Embassy in order to condemn the persistent repression in Iran and in order to cherish the legacy of the Students Uprising of 1999.
They will also ask from the Canadian government to pressure the Islamic regime in order to bring to an open court of justice the murderers of Zahra Kazemi the Iranian Canadian journalist killed by agents of the regime
Wednesday July 7, 2004
From 04:00 PM
In front of the Islamic republic Embassy located at 245 metclafe
Den Haag, Netherlands (On 07/07/2004)
Iranians will gather for the commemoration of the July 9-14, 1999, Student Uprising of Iran and its legacy. They will show their rejection of the Islamic republic and cherish the memories of those fallen during the bloody governmental crackdown on the 5 glorious days of students protests.
On Wednesday, July 7, 2004
From 12:00 till 14:00 (local time)
In front of the Dutch Parliament
Oslo, Norway (On 07/03/2004)
Iranians will gather for the commemoration of the July 9-14, 1999, Student Uprising of Iran and its legacy. They will show their rejection of the Islamic republic and cherish the memories of those fallen during the bloody governmental crackdown on the 5 glorious days of students protests.
During this advanced action, the protesters will also denounce the deals made between the Statoil company and the clerical regime.
On Saturday, July 3, 2004
From 14:00 till 16:00 (local time)
In front of the Norway's Parliament
Sacramento (CA/US) (On 07/04/2004)
Iranians of N. California will gather in order to condemn the Islamic republic regime and to cherish the legacy of the Students Uprising of July 9-14, 1999.
Sunday July 4, 2004
From 07:00 PM
In Front of Arden Mall
Koln, Germany (On 07/03/2004)
The Iranian community will gather in order to commemorate the Student Uprising of July 9-14, 1999, and to demonstrate their solidarity with enchained Iranians.
The demonstrators will request the end of the German government's collaboration with the Islamic regime and pressures on the Mullahcracy in order to respect Human Rights in Iran and to step down from political power.
Saturday, July 03, 2004
From 14:30 (Local time)
In front of the main church of Koln
Main cities, Iran (On 05/02/2004)
Teachers and their supporters, such as the students, will come into the streets in order to support the "Spiritual Fathers and Mothers of Iranians" (Teachers) in their protest movement and requests.
Many other teachers will start a week long strike that might radicalize if their conditions are not fulfilled.
In most Iranian schools and in front of the offices of the Ministry of Education and the Social offices in main Iranian cities.
from 10:00 AM (local time)
Tehran, Iran (On 04/30/2004)
Workers and their supporters, such as the students, will come into the streets in order to condemn the persistent deterioration of their conditions, the official corruption and looting of Iran's manufacturing assets by questionnable privatizations.
They will mark at this occasion the Int.'l Workers Day, a day sooner than the rest of the World due to this year's difference in Iranian calendar. They will march from the Mokhber-odoleh junction, located in downtown Tehran, toward the offices of welfare.
From 09:00 AM (local time)
Berlin, Germany (On 04/20/2004)
Iranians and German Freedom Lovers will gather, in the German capital, in order to condemn the repressive Islamic republic regime and especially the Mykonos terrorist attack, in the mid 90s, during which several Iranian opponents were killed by the regime's hit squad.
The demonstrators will also protest against the change made, by the Berlin's Mayor, in the writing of the commemorative stone which shall be placed in the famous restaurant. The German government has pressured Berlin's municipal officials in order to avoid jeopardizing the economic relations of this country with the tyrannical and terrorist regime of the mullahs despite the sentence issued, in 1997, by the German judiciary declaring the "highest levels of the Islamic republic as involved in these murders".
On Tuesday, April 20, 2004
From 16:30 (Local Time)
At the Prager Platz of Berlin
Brussels, Belgium (On 03/21/2004)
Iranians and European Freedom lovers will gather in order to protest against the EU's policy of protecting the Clerical regime. The demonstrators will warn the EU, on the eve of its General Affairs Council, on the consequences of supporting an illegitimate and shaky regime.
On Sunday March 21, 2004
From 11:00 AM (local time)
In front of the European Parliament
Main cities, Iran (On 03/16/2004)
Iranians will defy, once again, the Islamic regime by celebrating their banned cultural heritage, "Tchahar Shanbe Soori" (fire Fiest), qualified by the dogmatic Islamic mullahs as a pagan tradition.
They will break the regime's imposed religious taboo by making this celebration during the Shia mourning month of Moharam.
Heavy clashes are expected as Iranians have made themselves ready to resist the brutal attacks of the regime forces.
On Tuesday March 16, 2004
From the begining of the evening.
http://www.daneshjoo.org/article/publish/cat_index_10.shtml
Iran denies abducting sailors and Marines
By Anton La Guardia, Diplomatic Editor
(Filed: 02/07/2004)
Iran has dismissed British accusations that Revolutionary Guards effectively abducted eight British servicemen on the Iraqi side of the Shatt al-Arab waterway last week.
Its foreign ministry expressed "surprise" at a statement by Geoff Hoon, the Defence Secretary, that the six Royal Marines and two Royal Navy sailors had been "operating inside the Iraqi border and were forcibly escorted into Iranian territorial waters".
Hamid Reza Asefi, a ministry spokesman, said the British charge d'affaires in Teheran had "signed a letter confirming that they entered Iranian territorial waters illegally and unintentionally".
Jack Straw, the Foreign Secretary, had done the same in telephone conversations with Kamal Kharrazi, the foreign minister, he said.
The servicemen were detained by Iran for three days and paraded on television wearing blindfolds. They were handed back after making a televised apology.
A British official in London said the apology was conditional. "We said that if they had entered Iranian waters it had been unintentional. All our statements emphasised the 'if'."
Michael Ancram, the Tory foreign affairs spokesman, said that, if Mr Hoon's statement were true, "at the very least we must expect a full apology from the Iranians and a swift return of the equipment" - which included three patrol boats.
Some British officials were playing down the diplomatic significance of Mr Hoon's statement. They said it was more like a situation report than "a definitive assessment".
Even the humiliation of the servicemen on television was played down.
"The men were not prisoners of war so it was not a breach of the Geneva Convention," an official said.
Britain is keen to maintain some cordiality in relations with Iran because of its strategic position on the borders of Iraq and Afghanistan and its influence in both countries.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2004/07/02/wiran02.xml&sSheet=/news/2004/07/02/ixworld.html
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NORTH-EAST MARINE SENT SECRET MESSAGE FROM PRISON CELL IN IRAN
LEAH WILLIAMSON
02 July 2004
pressandjournal.co.uk
North-east Royal Marine David Reid was able to send a secret message on his mobile phone from his Iranian prison cell to his base, the Press and Journal can reveal.
He was able to alert his HQ to the trouble that he and his seven comrades were in.
His captors missed the phone when they searched him after he was taken prisoner with five fellow marines and two Royal Navy sailors on the Shatt al Arab waterway dividing Iraq from Iran and held for three days .
But the 24-year-old realised he would be in serious trouble if he was caught with the phone.
Marine Reid disposed of it after removing the sim card.
His father, Graham, revealed more of his son's ordeal after learning that he is due home around August 1.
Speaking from his home in Gordon Road, Kemnay, Mr Reid said the family had received a call from the Ministry of Defence family liaison officer on Wednesday to say David would be due home in around a month's time.
Mr Reid last spoke to his son on Sunday evening and said he was in good spirits.
"We are all looking forward to seeing him. The next four weeks will pass really quickly," said the father.
"But I think it's right for him to be at his base at the moment. He is with people who under-stand what he's experienced."
Mr Reid was heartened to receive a call from a local counsellor, who was once held as a prisoner by the Japanese.
Now in her 70s and a trained counsellor, the woman has offered her support to David when he returns home.
However, Mr Reid said his son, along with his seven comrades and their families, were left furious by the reported comments from rebel MP George Galloway.
It was reported that the Glasgow Kelvin MP had said of their capture: "I just have to laugh.
"We are told we have the best armed forces but they don't even know which country they are in."
David and his comrades may make a statement on their return home.
But in the meantime Mr Reid said the MP was "out of order".
"He showed a complete lack of respect for these men."
Last night it emerged that a new diplomatic row has broken out between Britain and Iran after the Tehran authorities denied forcing the eight UK servicemen into its territorial waters and then arresting them for illegal entry.
Mr Reid said: "I don't know what happened there but I know they are all highly trained and would have been focusing on their job.
"David had only been there two days so he was fresh and would have been concentrating on his job. I don't believe they strayed into waters."
http://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/displayNode.jsp?command=newPage&nodeId=149211&contentPK=10519193
Try this http://www.google.com/search?q=%22Tariq+Al+Quds%22&
it will give you ref to Road to Jerusalem.
Ayatollahs and US Presidential Election
July 01, 2004
The US Alliance for Democratic Iran
USADI
Many observers believe the election season in the United States is forcing the administration to refrain from taking firm action against Irans increasingly threatening and rouge behavior. The logic: Any such escalation could lead to a crisis the administration would not welcome. If true, this approach could undermine regional stability and our long term security interests.
Tehran, no doubt, is counting on this. The cunning mullahs in Iran are notorious for manipulating the domestic political climate in other countries, and since 1979, the US presidential election has been the focus of their attempts to blackmail our policy makers. This election appears to be no different.
Many in Irans leadership believe they have a window of opportunity until November to advance their secret nuclear weapons program beyond the point of no return and make their presence in Iraq irreversible. The mullahs feel the US preoccupation with Iraqs security will prevent it from doing anything concrete to counter Irans nuclear mischief and meddling in Iraq.
The mullahs do not operate on the basis of our election year calendar. They have one of their own and are working hard to get to the end zone before their perceived window of opportunity is closed. The recent announcement that Iran would continue with the uranium enrichment process, the dubious capture of eight British serviceman last week, and photographing sensitive locations of New York city by two Iranian guards of the Irans mission to the United Nations are just a few examples of Tehran brazenness.
Washington must make it crystal clear to Irans ruling tyrants that regional stability and the security concerns of the United States far outweigh any presidential campaign considerations.
The world would face an unprecedented calamity if Iran the most active state sponsor of terrorism went nuclear. Iranian meddling in Iraq would be of even greater repercussions given the impact it could have on the security of Iraq and the whole region.
More importantly, the theocratic regime in Iran has never been more isolated among Iranians. The rising influence of the most extreme figures, such as former and current commanders of the revolutionary guards, in the government is an attempt by the mullahs to get a second lease on life. It is not surprising that since February they have cracked down harshly on protests and strikes in different parts of Iran and have stepped up their activities in the nuclear front and in Iraq.
All the parties involved in the election must be unanimous in denouncing Irans rouge behavior and pledge their firm stance against Irans suppression of its citizens, nuclear weapons program, and export of fundamentalism to Iraq and beyond. They should also unambiguously declare their support for Irans anti-fundamentalist opposition movement that is working to unseat the tyrant mullahs. The failure to do so would be seen by Tehran as a sign of weakness.
http://www.usadiran.org/index.html
Iran Faces Retaliation over Boats
July 02, 2004
The Guardian
Ewen MacAskill and Richard Norton-Taylor
Britain is considering retaliating against Iran unless it "clarifies" the seizure of eight servicemen last week. A government source said that, if the Iranians did admit forcing them into Iranian waters, "they could expect a reaction". The Foreign Office could call in the Iranian ambassador for a reprimand. More drastic retribution is unlikely, since the FO cherishes its diplomatic links with Tehran.
The British chargé d'affaires in Tehran passed on a statement by the defence secretary, Geoff Hoon, saying the three patrol boats had not strayed as had been thought. On Wednesday he told MPs the six marines and two sailors told a debriefing they were "forcibly escorted" into Iranian waters, and he said he was "very concerned" at their being blindfolded.
Britain also wants the return of the boats and navigation devices, which should establish any straying by mistake.
Iran rejected Mr Hoon's account. The foreign ministry's spokesman said: "During the handover of the men in Tehran, the British chargé d'affaires signed the minutes of the meeting with relevant Iranian officials. The minutes acknowledged that the British boats entered the Iranian waters by mistake."
It emerged this week that Iranians set up posts a kilometre inside Iraq last year. The matter was solved through diplomacy, but not before US commanders in Iraq asked British officers to plan an attack on the posts.
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/foreignaffairs/story/0,11538,1252300,00.html
Iran City Pix Blitz Puts FBI on Alert
July 01, 2004
New York Daily News
Jennifer Lebovich and James Gordon Meek
WASHINGTON -- The FBI is more worried about workers at Iran's UN mission in New York when it comes to suspicious photo surveillance of city landmarks than those from any other nation, sources said yesterday.
"The staff of the Iranian mission seems to be the most active in taking photos and video" of potential terror targets, one U.S. law enforcement source said.
While the FBI still assigns roughly half of its several hundred national security division agents in New York to keeping tabs on Russian spies, photography of sensitive sites by Iranian agents is now a major counterterrorism concern.
On Tuesday, the State Department announced the expulsion of two security guards at Iran's United Nations mission. The duo was tailed by G-men in New York last week as they videotaped St. Patrick's Cathedral, Rockefeller Center, Central Park and transit buses, sources said.
The FBI watched the men shooting video from the hip and concealing cameras with clothing, according to the sources.
Iranian agents have been stopped at least six times for similar activity in the past, NYPD and federal officials have said.
"Should [Iranian officials] start sharing these photos with people we don't care for, it may do us harm," said a federal law enforcement source.
Yesterday, Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) stood in front of the mission's offices at E. 40th St. and Third Ave. and blasted Iran for "spying and deception" that puts "everyone at risk."
"Time after time Iranian employees have gotten caught red-handed," Schumer said. "If it happens once, you say it's unusual. If it happens three times, something is wrong."
Iran is on America's list of state sponsors of terrorism for its notorious ties to Hamas and Hezbollah and for allegedly protecting Al Qaeda leaders.
Iran's mullahs also have been accused by Washington of allowing Jordanian terror kingpin Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi to freely cross the border with Iraq.
Russian diplos, by comparison, wouldn't draw as much scrutiny for taking photos of New York landmarks because Russian spies are not apt to be involved in target surveillance, sources said.
"If Russians were out taking pictures of St. Patrick's, we probably would think it more likely to be tourist activity," the federal source said.
Three pairs of guards from the Iranian mission have been kicked out of the U.S. since 2002. Cuban diplomats also have been expelled in the past year, and five Iraqi officials at their former UN mission were declared persona non grata and expelled in April 2003.
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/local/story/207896p-179255c.html
Rafsanjani Wants Bush Tried
July 02, 2004
Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting
IRIB News
Tehran -- Chairman of the Expediency Council (EC) Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani here on Friday called US President George Bush the "real criminal" in the court case against the former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hossein, stressing that Bush must also be put on trial.
"Today, the world's monsters are standing face to face, and the real criminal is US President Bush who must be indicted," Rafsanjani said at a sermon to Tehran Friday Prayers.
He criticized the us for holding the trial of the Iraqi dictator in-camera, and said Saddam must be tried for the crimes that he has perpetrated in the eight-year war against Iran, 1980-88, as well.
"The US always asks others to be transparent. But why have they held the first hearing of the court in-camera?" he asked. "That they show footages of the hearing with no voice indicates that this is not a trial."
Rafsanjani said the weakest point with Saddam's trial is that his crimes against Iran have not been included in his indictment.
"Is the fact that there are currently 100,000 Iranians suffering from chemical wounds ... not the result of Saddam's crimes?," he said."If the Iraqi court refuses to deal with this issue, then this shows that the US has ordered the case to be like so. This is because Saddam's war on Kuwait has been raised while his war on Iran has not been included in his indictment."
Rafsanjani stressed that Saddam's trial must address all the events in the region during his reign, including the war against Iran, stressing that another court should otherwise deal with his case.
The former president expressed regret that certain western states have created a ballyhoo over Iran's nuclear energy plans, but are themselves engaged in a nuclear arms race. Rafsanjani said the west and the UN must address the roots of the proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs), stressing that Israel must also be prevented from developing those weapons.
"They have so far used chemical and nuclear warfare wherever they desired and there was no problem. But now they are saying that the terrorists may develop access to these weapons," he said.
"Of course they are right to be concerned because if irresponsible people have access to these weapons there will be many disasters in man's history."
Rafsanjani recalled Iraq's 1978 gassing of people in Sardasht and Halabja in its war with Iran, and blamed the West for developing the technology of WMDs.
He pointed out to documents that indicate the involvement oF western corporations in providing the former regime of Saddam Hossein with chemical warfare, stressing that the West shares the blame with Saddam for crimes against humanity in gassing the people in the war with Iran.
"Now that the Islamic Republic wants to exploit the nuclear technology for industrial and medical use, they accuse it of what they, themselves, are," Rafsanjani said.
http://www.iribnews.ir/Full_en.asp?news_id=206682
Iran, Democracy and Human Rights
July 02, 2004
Intellectual Conservative
Roger Howard
The West undermines its own credibility by advocating democracy and human rights for Iran.
In the wake of a damning report by Human Rights Watch that has detailed the torture, detention and the crushing of dissent under the mullahs regime, the anguished voices of oppressed Iranians seem to cry out to the watching world. But should the West answer them by taking up the cause of freedom and helping them cast aside the yoke of tyranny?
Because such a cause is so idealistic, its claims so grandiose, and its values so abstract, by championing it we immediately render ourselves highly vulnerable to allegations of hypocrisy and double standards. While an obvious example is provided by the horrors of Abu Ghraib, which cast a very dark shadow over American claims to be liberating the Iraqi people, consider too the troubling tension between the two ideals that liberal humanitarians so loudly advocate for others -- democracy and human rights.
There is of course no necessary reason why these should be incompatible: our rulers are clearly much more likely to respect the interests of those to whom they are accountable. But the recent experience of Western countries, where the guardianship of those rights is often entrusted not to democratically elected bodies but to unelected judicial elites, amply demonstrates that an orchestration of democracy and human rights can easily strike not a natural harmony but a terrible discord.
All the states of Western Europe have, for example, sacrificed some of the powers of their own democratic assemblies to the judges of the European Court of Human Rights, which was established in 1950 to ensure the collective enforcement of certain rights and freedoms. This has forced ordinary people to helplessly watch the curtailment of their right to rule themselves by a distant, unelected judiciary that would seem to have nothing to do with their own country.
Britains Human Rights Act, which took effect in October 2000, has also given unelected judges new powers to challenge the legislative decrees of its democratically elected parliamentary assembly. If the British courts cant construe legislation to make its terms fit the demands of the European Convention on Human Rights, then they may make a declaration of that incompatibility which prompts the executive power to refer it back to Parliament for revision.
How ironic, then, that Western politicians talk to the Iranians about democracy and human rights with such ease. The diplomats of the European Union have spoken this humanitarian language to the Iranian authorities ever since the beginning of their critical dialogue in 1995. And across the Atlantic, President Bush has appealed directly to ordinary Iranians who in the face of harsh repression
are courageously speaking out for democracy and the rule of law and human rights, while his deputies, Richard Armitage and Zalmay Khalilzad, also typically speak of their wish to see a democratic Iran
that respects human rights.
The natural enemies of liberty are not slow to detect weak points in the arguments pitched by those they confront. The editorials of Irans hard-line press, for example, frequently question the right of President Bush to advocate democracy for others when his own democratic mandate in November 2000 was so fragile. And the more we now talk about democracy and human rights for Iran, the more vulnerable we will become to their retorts that our actions are both hypocritical and incoherent: as Britains archbishops warned on Wednesday, the appearance of double standards inevitably diminishes the credibility of western governments throughout the world.
Of course Western governments are under great pressure from the well-heeled Human Rights Industry to show some concern for the welfare of the oppressed, and any negotiations with Tehran that ignore the plight of ordinary Iranians would for this reason provoke a storm of outrage. How, then, can they meet this pressing need while also keeping their credibility intact?
The solution is, fortunately, very simple. Why not just demand that the mullahs allow the Iranian people to have the Iran they want to have, a formula that would also reconcile the Wests need to be seen to care with the right of all Iranians to determine their own future? Lets hope our politicians can now resist the pressure of the human rights professionals and put forward this new message instead.
Roger Howard is the author of Iran in Crisis? Nuclear Ambitions and the American Response.
http://www.intellectualconservative.com/article3572.html
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UNESCO Adds Irans Pasargadae To World Heritage List
MNA
July 2nd, 2004
TEHRAN July 2 (MNA) -- The Iranian ancient site of Pasargadae was added to the World Heritage list at the 28th session of the U.N. Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization's World Heritage Committee on Thursday in Suzhoui, a city in eastern China.
Pasargadae is the fifth Iranian site to be registered in the list, after Persepolis, Chogha Zanbil Ziggurat, Takht-e Suleiman, and Naqsh-e Jahan Square.
The UNESCOs announcement said that Pasargadae was not only a historical and cultural heritage, but also a memorial of a sacred heritage to call different cultures and religions to mutual respect.
Pasargadae, the first dynastic capital of the Achaemenid Empire, founded by Cyrus II, the Great, in Pars, homeland of the Persians, in the 6th century B.C. Its palaces, gardens, and the mausoleum of Cyrus are outstanding examples of the first phase of royal Achaemenid art and architecture and exceptional testimonies of Persian civilization.
Its a great day for Iranians and people of the world because the world community respects the human heritage of Cyrus, the Great by adding Pasargadae to the World Heritage List, said Ahmad Jalali, the ambassador and permanent representative of Islamic Republic of Iran in UNESCO.
This is a great signal for us that the sound of humanity and kindness will never get lost under the blue sky; today the sound which rose for human rights in Iran 2,500 years ago, is respectable for the world, he added.
The charter of Cyrus, the Great (known as the Cyrus Cylinder), a baked-clay Aryan language cuneiform cylinder, was discovered in 1878 in excavation of the site of Babylon. Cyrus the Great described in it his human treatment of the inhabitants of Babylonia after its conquest by the Iranians.
UNESCO was also due to vote on Friday about the two other Iranian sites of Bam Citadel and Naqsh-e Jahan Square for inscription of them in the List of World Heritage in Danger.
http://www.mehrnews.com/wfNewsDetails_en.aspx?NewsID=91698&t=Cultural
VW to Build Production Site in Iran
July 02, 2004
AFX News
Ample
WOLFSBURG, Germany - Volkswagen AG said it will build a production site in Iran, near the city of Bam, which- will assemble over 20,000 vehicles per year.
VW will initially transfer the "completely-knocked-down" form of its Gol 1.8l model from Brazil to Iran, which means shipping pre-assembled modules to Iran for final assembly, it said.
If demand is strong, production direct in Iran is possible in several years time. It is also possible that other VW models will become available, it said.
BAMCo, a unit of Kerman Automotive Industries Co, will assemble the cars, which will then be sold exclusively via the Modiran Pars Co dealer network, which is also a unit of Kerman, VW said.
The four-door compact car Gol is already available in Argentina, China, South Africa, Mexico, and Eastern Europe.
VW said the Iranian automobile market grew by 147 pct between 1999 and 2003.
http://www.iii.co.uk/shares/?type=news&articleid=5015401&action=article
"Muslims Should Reform Religion... Accept Democracy"
July 02, 2004
The Middle East Media Research Institute
MEMRI
Iranian Intellectual: 'Religious Tyranny is Based on a Fascist Interpretation of Faith... Muslims Should Reform Religion... Accept Democracy'
The director of the Association for the Defense of Journalism in Iran, Dr. Mohsen Kedivar, participated in a seminar titled "Towards Democracy" at the Law and Political Science Faculty of the University of Tehran. In a speech, he addressed the issue of tyranny and democracy in Iran, noting that Iranian society had experienced two types of tyranny: secular tyranny under the Shah's regime, and religious tyranny under the regime of the Islamic Revolution.
According to Kedivar, there are two perceptions in Islam. One is a totalitarian perception that maintains that Islam contradicts democracy. The adherents of this perception see the establishment of a religious regime and repression of the people as legitimate. The second perception maintains that Islam promotes freedom and does not contradict democracy.
It should be emphasized that Kedivar, who is a cleric and a prominent intellectual of the reformist stream, does not rule out a religious regime; he only fears that religious tyranny might take over the running of day-to-day affairs, which will bring religious totalitarianism.
Kedivar states that Islam is a religion related to time and location, and that it is the people who must decide how society should be run. He sees democracy as the best way of managing society's affairs, but does not preach secularism, and even opposes secularists who call for separation of religion and state. He has in the past been tried and imprisoned for his writings. The following are excerpts from his speech at the seminar:(1)
Both the 'Constitutional Revolution' and the 'Islamic Revolution' Have Failed to Solve Tyranny
"Since the Constitutional Revolution in Iran, we [Iranians] have had experience with two forms of tyranny, secular and religious.(2) Like the Constitutional Revolution, the Islamic Revolution has failed to solve the problems of tyranny in Iran. The most controversial [political and social] discussions in the past century have erupted between the followers of two different schools of thought and the followers of two different interpretations of Islam.
"According to one interpretation, the social affairs of a country are entrusted to one man, while according to the other, trust is placed in the people and its freedom is respected [i.e. 'Islamic democracy']... The two interpretations have advocates, both among the intellectuals and among the clerics.
"In Iran we have experienced both secular tyranny, based on a fascist interpretation of politics and sociology, and religious tyranny, based on a fascist interpretation of faith. Religious tyranny is undoubtedly the more dangerous, since it uses religion as a means of applying political pressure on the people.
"Both religious tyranny and secular tyranny took shape in Iran after the Constitutional Revolution, and advocates of both strived to ensure their hegemony and political power in Iranian society... Over the past 25 years we have witnessed [these] two interpretations of Islam in Iran. One impeded the Iranian nation's efforts to create a democracy, whereas the other tried to help efforts to promote freedom."
'The Problem in Religious Rule is the Fascist Interpretation that Leads to Totalitarianism'
Kedivar noted that the two interpretations of Islam have always co-existed: "The first is totalitarian and the second emphasizes [the religious support] freedom and democracy. Those who advocate the first [totalitarian] interpretation believe that the only way for religion to attain power is through political rule... This is the populist approach to democracy, and in other words ... tyranny. Authority, according to this interpretation, is not derived from the public, but from Heaven, and it appears in its most lucid form in the ideology of the religious government..."
Kedivar stressed: "Political Islam [in and of itself] has never presented a problem [because the people are religious]. [The problem lies in] the fascist interpretation of political Islam: [the problem lies in] the belief of a specific group of people [i.e. the clerics in power] that they enjoy special rights and [the problem lies in the claim that Islam is a system of] fixed rules and regulations that are unchangeable.
"[There are] two groups which do not support freedom or democracy: [The first group is] those who support the totalitarian interpretation of religion and Islam, and [the second group is] the secular Iranians and foreigners who equate Islam with totalitarianism... The secular view religion as matter for the individual. When the officials of the regime are religious and advocate religious rule, they are permitted to propose [religious rule to the public] as a public matter, but even then [the endorsement of this principle should] be dependent upon its acceptance by the majority..."
Islam Promotes Freedom and Democracy
"[The adherents of the second interpretation, i.e.] democratic Islam, view religion as based upon democratic principles... Islam, [in their opinion,] is - for most - a way of life related to time and place... According to the first interpretation [i.e., the totalitarian interpretation of Islam], Islam is contradictory to democracy and impedes it. But according to the second interpretation, not only is [Islam] not contradictory to democracy, but it is even considered a catalyst in its [implementation].
"In our society, democracy is an [essential] need but it [in itself] is not sufficient... [The Islamic public] does not need to denounce democracy merely because it comes from the West. Democracy is the best method of governing, because it reduces to a minimum the role of the individual and replaces it with the rule of society by public wisdom. The establishment of a democratic order must be based on four main principles: free and fair elections, the establishment of a civil society, respect for human rights, and transparency of governmental actions.
"It is incumbent upon Muslims to reevaluate the existing religious traditions and to reform religious and democratic [values]. They must accept the fact that democracy is the only way to run the social and political affairs [of society]."
Endnotes:
(1) Aftab-e Yazd (Iran), May 11, 2004; IRNA (Persian), May 10, 2004.
(2) The Constitutional Revolution, 1905-1907. Following popular pressure led by intellectuals and clerics, the Shah was forced to adopt a Western-style constitution for Iran.
http://www.memri.org/bin/latestnews.cgi?ID=SD73804
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