Posted on 06/02/2004 7:39:11 PM PDT by Dales
The answer is Ohio!
Right you are!
Let the leftists keep the color red.
Actually, since the TV networks started airing election results, the tradition had been that the incumbent party got Blue and the challenging party got Red. From 1972 to 1992 the Dems got Blue only one time - in 1980 for Jimmy Carter's reelection effort. Then, Clinton got Blue in 1996 and Gore inherited that for 2000. If the old convention were followed, GWB would get Blue back for the 2004 reelection campaign.
However, it seems that everyone has been so fixated on the 2000 election Red/Blue map because it was so apt toward representing the razor-thin electoral divide that I think the GOP has got stuck with Red now due to that happenstance.. No one talked about "Red States" and "Blue States" before that but now it's been all but forgotten what it used to mean (just like Delaware's bellwether tradition has been ignored).
According to Sigmund Freud, there are no accidents.
The leftist media makes up the rules as they go along. In the beginning the socialists were always given red. Then the reds noticed this was not to their political advantage and made up the incumbent rule. Now they change the rules to hide behind our blue permanently. We should not play along. Maybe Fox News can be convinced to give us back our blue.
If you look up common color meanings, blue fits conservative values, and red fits the adulterous, lying, angry, jealous leftists.
A Monte Carlo based on the %s in the table gives Bush an 88% to 12% chance of winning. Expected total is 311 to 227,
Caveats: I copied the table wrong (likely); the program is wrong (no); the numbers in the table aren't stable (likely); my assumptions are wrong (possibly, I assume independence of states).
I ignored the undecided and arbitrarily took a 4% MOE.
Thanks and bump!
Off what reservation? His polls do not seem to be that out of line with others. For a while some of his state polls have favored Kerry by a point or two more than many other polls, but nothing that strikes me as being over the top (unlike Zogby).
For his regular polls, he pretty much predicts what the turnout will be, and scales his sample accordingly. If one samples 8% more Democrats than Republicans, one is going to get results favoring the Democrats (in general).
This is how he got the 1996 Presidential race so right- he had predicted that the Democrat turnout would be lackadasial.
The net effect is that his polls are as much predictions as they are measures. And his predictions have not panned out of late.
His Zogby Interactive polls are even worse though; these are the ones that came out en masse last week in the Wall Street Journal. Those are not even random samples of Americans. They are random samples of people who had previously gone out of their way to sign up on Zogby's site to take part in online polling. This makes the sample partly or mostly self-selected, and calls everything else about the results into question-- especially since he used to recruit people to signup for this style of polling on advocacy boards and magazines (such as pro-marijuana boards).
I've noticed that too, his polls are now more in line with others but I suspect he's still not the most acurate. At least his OH poll and the Mason Dixon OH poll validate each other.
Doing this from memory, but it appears that gradually Kerry is losing strength in his "strong" and "leaning" states, with more moving into the "tossup" category. All Bush needs now is just ONE of the "biggies,"---Michigan or PA---and few like Iowa or NM or MN to move, and it starts to become a landslide.
"Since 1948, one state has gone every time to the candidate who won the national popular vote. Which?"
I recently read something (IIRC in the USA Today) about the GOP taking a hard look at both New Jersey and Delaware as possible pick-up opportunities.
If they are doing that, then they must be confident about PA, MI, WI, IA, MN, NM, and OR. Another thing, looking at this map you just know that the press is going to call all those red New England states for Kerry the moment the polls close and sit on all the southern states to drag it out. Make it look like Kerry is surging to a win with a 60-0 start.
I remember stating on this forum back in 2000 that folks had better prepare themselves for lots of Gore news early on (although even with that I had no idea what was really coming that night).
Prepare for the worst, pray for the best.
I just signed up for this site, not realizing it's a conservative site! I'm hosting a John Kerry house party this Saturday ... I guess no one here wants to come to that! :-) ... Anyway, the answer to the question is OHIO ... I'm a political junkie, and I've heard it referred to often.
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