Electoral College Breakdown 2004, April 14th Update

ECB 2004 ^ | 4/14/04

[TomEwall]

I haven't studied these keys, but I do find them interesting, as I said. I was turned off a bit by their attempt to spin the election saying that Gore would have won (and so they would have been right) if black's votes hadn't been invalidated at twice the rate of whites. I hadn't heard that one before.

In the 2000 election Bush had a slight lead going into the weekend, and then, after the DUI thing, the race became a coin flip. So I suppose if the 13 keys were accurate, it should have predicted a Bush victory, unless one of the keys takes into account the DUI thing somehow, in which case it should have predicted it to be very close.

I've got the page bookmarked and intend at some point to look at it more closely. I'm all for trying to understand things better.

[conservatism_IS_compassion]

That America has recently faced a 'Clinton-recession' is actually irrelevant, that business is now doing well is potentially irrelevant. What is important is whether people think that the recession was Clinton's, and whether people feel that things are getting better. Economic 'feel-good' is frequently a lagging indicator, indeed most economic effects are better observed in the past.

Indeed. In fact I would almost argue that Bush already has the economic perceptions game wired - the economy is almost bound to continue spinning out good numbers for quite a while, even if things were in fact turning bad right now. Not quite yet, perhaps - but give us good numbers for the next 3 months and it'll be too late for a Kerry-favoring recession to be perceived.

[1L]

Is there a key for voter fraud? In my opinion, that's the only thing standing between Bush and an assured victory.

[no dems]

Let me explain why the poll had Alf Landon beating FDR by a sizeable margin. The poll was done by telephone and the average working person who was an FDR supporter did not have a telephone.

[Tennessean4Bush]

but how do you explain Missouri? (Rasmussen shows a 7 point edge for Bush)

MO will only be competitive if Kerry nominates Gephardt for VP. Kerry will not resonate in the Midwest at all. I think MO is probably a 10-12% lead for Bush.

[no dems]

Do you really believe that Pennsylvania and New Jersey are leaning toward Bush? That's two states he lost in 2000. When I saw that in the poll I almost fell out of my chair. Does anyone out there really believe that GW has a chance of taking PA and NJ?

[BohDaThone]

As to the effect of a call 10 minutes before closing time.

1. I'd be interested in your source for "Dem pollsters saying it cost 8000 votes." I've never seen that.

2. To my knowledge, the "GOP pollster saying 11,000 votes" comes from a regression analysis by John Lott. I can't quarrel with every detail, but it's the same kind of regression that shows that everything causes cancer.

3. There are about 700 precincts in the Central Time Zone. The 11,000 figure would mean that 15+ people left the polls or didn't show in the last 10 minutes, on average, in EVERY POLLING PLACE. I have seen anecdotal accounts of one or two (like the anecdotes of the loons in Palm Beach who screwed up and vote wrong, they claimed), but no serious accounts of big numbers.

4. In 1980, a Dem congressman in California lost by under 1000 votes, when Carter had been called dead 2 hours before. No GOP analyst (or any non-partisan political scientist) believed that an early call ran Dems away from the polls. The panhandle area was no bigger than 2 CD's.

5. So, I don't excuse the networks, but I think it is just fantasy (and a fantasy based on really stupid Republicans -- no one forced them away from voting on all local offices, etc.) to think that thousands of republicans in Florida did not vote becasue of the early call. I ask you -- if it had been reversed, would you have been willing to conced that thousands of Dems were disenfranchised by a 10-minute early call??

[oldtimer]

Surely Kerry's record in Vietnam will finally bleed through despite the leftist media screening - 4 months, 2 superficial wounds probably self induced, followed by an anti American voting record as a Senator.

This leftist Kerry is dangerous to the future of our Country, as he hates our form of Government.

We better pray a lot for GWB.

[AGreatPer]

"Does anyone out there really believe that GW has a chance of taking PA and NJ?"

No way Bush will get either state..

I agree with you.

[no dems]

Do you think the Prez will carry Florida by a more comfortable margin this time or do you think it will be close?

[no dems]

O.k. I have another question: Suppose in October there is another terrorist attack on our soil, albeit not as severe as 9/11; does that hurt or help Bush?

[Tennessean4Bush]

No way Bush will get either state.

PA is in play, as several polls have shown Bush with a significant lead. NJ still has me scratching my head. I mean, if NJ is in play why isn't CA?

[DM1]

I doubt Bush can pick up WA however i have a bit of cautious optimism about PA being picked up. If we do this and retain OH (mighty big IF from what i am hearing) then Kerry will be in serious trouble

[Tennessean4Bush]

Both of the last 2 polls in PA showing Bush with a lead are of registered voters and not likely voters and typically you can add another 2-4% to a pub when likely voters are used.

[Tennessean4Bush]

The last 2 NJ polls also are of RV and not LV. But, like you, it is hard to see NJ going for Bush unless Bush is ahead by 5-7% nationally. If that is the case, then many dems will see the handwriting on the wall and vote for Nader and thus swing some of the typically "leaning Dem" states to Bush.

[kalt]

Actually, Hubert Humphrey (from Minnesota) carried Texas in 1968. But JFK was the last non-Southerner to get as much as 45% in any Southern state (including Kentucky and Oklahoma).

Sort of misleading, though, since the Democrats have only run four non-Southerners since then, and two were against popular incumbents, and a third was in a race with George Wallace in it.

[AGreatPer]

Your both are going to have to excuise me on this one. Why? Because I don't think Kerry will be nominee.

When the previious commanders of Kerry come out in unison saying they did NOT authorize the Purple Hearts, later this year, it is going to hit the fan. Kerry is going to be exposed for piece of (oh, shut me up already) that he is.

Hillary will be the person at the convention. She's getting too old and fatter to wait another 4 years.

With Rendell in PA, we have no chance. NJ with the Hildabeast is a shoo in.

That is why we will lose PA and NJ.

Hey, there is good news. Overall, I think she gets beat by a narrow margin. Yes, that stinkin Florida again.

[Marauder]

Bill Sammon ... "At Any Cost".

I bought and read that book and I remember that stunt. The damned utopian liberals are deviously anti-American. I don't understand why conservatives keep falling for their tricks.

[Ciexyz]

btt

[Lady In Blue]

Have you heard when they will Hussein's trial? Right away or maybe a few months down the road from June 30th? I hope it's in the fall myself!