Newsweek Poll: Bush 45%, Kerry 43%, Nader 5%

Yahoo/PRNewswire ^ | 3.20.04

[Dane]

My hopes do not contradict my actions. I hope Kerry loses, I hope that a conservative wins. I hope my mom doesn't die of cancer. I will pray. She will die. I will vote, a conservative won't win

Your idea of a conservative won't win, probably never will, so you go on your political fatalism trip.

Hey that's fine you can go any type of trip you want. I'll stay in reality.

[AUH2OY2K]

Unfortunately, a conservative won't win. Bush is moderate to liberal. Examples of his liberalism: Increasing the federal budget for education by 48%, the Medicare prescription drug "entitlement" plan, amnesty for illegal immigrants, increased funding for NPR, continued diplomatic and economic relations with Communist China who continue to engage in religious genocide, forced abortions and slavery. The reality is, at least in this cycle, a conservative will not win.

[redheadtoo]

Nader is my favorite lefty. His ego is so big that he is willing to sabotage his own side with his hopeless runs for the White House. I just love this guy.

I am hoping that Nader will come out openly and give full support to the gay marriage issue. This will be the opposite of Kerry's waffling and will further split the radical far left vote.

[dawn53]

A majority (52%) of registered voters say they have a favorable opinion of Bush, 51 percent say the same of Kerry (10 percent say they "don't know" and three percent say they had never heard of Kerry).

And this will make all the difference in the world!!!

Bush is now getting the message out and informing people of "who" Kerry is.

I don't think the 13% who "don't know" or "never heard of" Kerry will be impressed

[dc-zoo]

Nader already does give full support for gay marriage.

[Dane]

Increasing the federal budget for education by 48%, the Medicare prescription drug "entitlement" plan, amnesty for illegal immigrants, increased funding for NPR, continued diplomatic and economic relations with Communist China who continue to engage in religious genocide, forced abortions and slavery. The reality is, at least in this cycle, a conservative will not win.

Again your version of a conservative. Bush campaigned on a drug plan in 2000, no claim of false advertising there. It is not amnesty of illegal aliens, but I guess you would rather have Kerry who would give amnesty. Gee giving money to Shakespere plays and reforming the NEA is not a betrayal. And like it or not we are not going to break off diplomatic relations to China.

Anyway you have your own version of conservatism that even 99.9% of people who call themselves conservative cannot meet. You go ahead and live in your little dream world and nit pick to death why you don't like Bush.

The rest of us will fight in the electoral arena to re-elect a President who is fighting terrorism, cutting taxes, and appointing some very good conservative judges.

Oh BTW, when you reach your destination called "perfect political world" send me a postcard. I have a notion that I will be waiting a long time for it to arrive.

[cpdiii]

You can bet your Clymer that they also asked if they were registered to vote and if they voted in the last presidential election. They did not like what those numbers said so just went with the entire group of adults.

I think it was Mark Twain that said, "liars, damn liars and statisticians." If it was someone else I will be corrected shortly.

[AUH2OY2K]

I don't consider it nit-picking when the President increases the budget for the Dept of Ed by 48%. Nor do I consider it nit-picking that Bush's medicare bill will cost the taxpayers $534,000,000,000.00 over 10 years. Nor do I consider it nit-picking that the president is proposing to reward illegal immigrants for breaking the law. Nor is it nit-picking that the President continues to embrace China, a country that engages in slavery, religious genocide, and forced abortions. I seriously doubt those enslaved, those who lost fathers, mothers, sons, and daughters to genocide, and the children killed by the forced abortion policy, if they had a voice, would consider it nit-picking.
I guess you and I have a different idea of what "nit-picking " entails.

[Dane]

You have your fatalist talking points all in a row.

I forgot to mention the education bill. The demos now hate it because it includes standards. For some reason you leave that out.

Anyway, you can moan in your little corner about how there is no "true conservative" yada, yada, yada.

Have fun livng in perpetual fatalism.

[AUH2OY2K]

And you enjoy your moral relativism. Sleep well knowing that the President is not standing up to China's forced abortions. Take comfort in the knowledge that millions of children were killed. I just stated the facts. Your characterization of the facts as "talking points" does not diminish from my assertions.

[Edmund Burke]

If the price of gasoline is still above $1.50 on election day, Bush is all through.

[DrDeb]

Here's all you need to know about this Newsweek poll:

1.) It's a 'quickie' 2-day poll vs the more RELIABLE 4-6 day poll -- the latter polls ALWAYS put the President's approval rating at 50% or above [think Annenberg, NPR, and Rasmussen]

2.) This poll surveys 1,000 ADULTS with a subset of REGISTERED VOTERS -- 'Adults' are the LEAST reliable predictors of electoral behavior; 'Likely Voters' the MOST reliable predictors. [NOTE 1: Using a 'subset' typically increases the margin of error by at least 1.5 - 2 points. NOTE 2: Annenberg's survey of 'adults' has the LOWEST margin of error among ALL pollsters at +/-2 -- its 3/15/04 poll put the President's APPROVAL RATING AT 55% among adults-- where it has been since November!!!!]

3.) As the Republican pollster for National Public Radio indicates (NPR uses a bipartisan polling team), MOST pollsters (including Newsweek) give Democrats a 3 - 6 point advantage in their sample. So, when you analyze Newsweek's results, simply add 3 - 6 points for a more probable approval rating: 51% - 54%!

4.) A President's approval rating typically reflects voter opinion of the economy at a particular point in time and nothing more. In fact, for every president other than GWB, a president's approval rating has always been within 2-4 of the 'right direction' indicator. Currently, most polls put the 'right direction' number at 38% -- the fact that GWB's approval rating remains well above 40-42% is amazing by any historical standard!

5.) The only Newseek results worth contemplating are as follows:

Head-to-Head Match-up [to observe trends for this poll only]

3/18-19/04 GWB 48% Kerry 48% (tie)
2/19-20/04 GWB 45% Kerry 48% (-3)
2/05-06/04 GWB 45% Kerry 50% (-5)

[The President is trending higher even in a poll that oversamples Democrats!]

The President's FAVORABILITY AND LIKABILITY ratings:
-- 52% favorable (Kerry 51%)
-- 69% like him as a person (vs 60% for Kerry)

Says what he believes vs what he thinks people want to hear:
-- GWB 62% Kerry 45% (+17)

Is a strong LEADER:
-- GWB 67% Kerry 55% (+12)

War on Terrorism/Homeland Security
-- GWB 56% Kerry 35% (+21)

Iraq
-- GWB 53% Kerry 38% (+15)

Economy
-- within 1 point of a statistical tie: GWB 43% Kerry 47%


BOTTOMLINE: Even Newsweek's left-leaning quickie poll of 'adults' seems to indicate that unless the economy tanks, the President's likability, strong leadership skills, and trustworthiness/steadiness relative to the War on Terror/Homeland Security will WIN the day in November!