Polls are widely divergent at this point. If Bush is behind after the GOP convention, I'll start to worry.
I think Bush has slipped a lot, but I don't trust a poll from CBS - the home of Dan Rather, the anti-Reagan mini-series, and Janet Jackson.
1.) DISCLAIMER: Polls in February do NOT predict voter behavior in November! [NOTE: As Ambrose discovered last week, in March 1984, a Gallup poll indicated that GARY HART would defeat President Reagan by double digits!]
2.) CAVEAT: It appears that the "mainstream" pollsters have purposely changed their approach to 'sampling'. Beginning in mid-January, most pollsters began both to poll REGISTERED VOTERS vs Adults and to OVERSAMPLE Democrats in key states.
Relative to this current CBS Poll, the pollster OVERSAMPLED Democrats in the 10 states holding primaries on March 2. As raloxk noted, this approach seems to have produced a GROSS oversampling of Democrats -- 37% Democrats, 33% Independents and 29% Republicans -- skewing poll results accordingly!
3.) RELIABLE POLLSTERS: At present, I am closely watching the following polling services: Annenberg (boasts an MOE of +/- 2 -- the lowest among ALL current pollsters), Rasmussen (tracks 1,500 LIKELY VOTERS on a daily basis), and Zogby (the only pollster to track voter opinion in RED states vs BLUE states -- also the only pollster to admit that getting a VALID sample of Republicans/conservatives is VERY difficult so most pollsters don't do it!!!!)
ZOGBY
2/12-15/04
Likely Voters/MOE +/- 2.8
GWB Approval Ratings:
Red States -- 55% Excellent/Good
(translates to an approval rating proximating 60%)
Blue States-- 47% Excellent/Good
Head-to-Head Match-up:
Red States -- GWB 51% Kerry 39% (+12)
Blue States -- GWB 46% Kerry 47% (-1)
http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=808 ANNENBERG
2/11-19/04
Adults/MOE +/- 2
GWB Approval Rating:
55% approve 42% disapprove (+13)
over 60% believe the President is a strong leader
http://www.annenbergpublicpolicycenter.org/naes/2004_03_guard-and-vietnam_02-20_pr.pdf RASMUSSEN:
2/26-28/04
Likely Voters +/-3
GWB Approval Rating:
54% approval
Head-to-Head Match-Up:
Bush 48% Kerry 45%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/ 4.) GOOD NEWS FROM FLORIDA:
Research 2000 for South Florida Sun-Sentinel and Florida Times-Union
Likely Voters
2/24-25/04
GWB Favorability:
58% favorable 38% unfavorable (+20)
Head-to-Head Match-Up
Bush 47% Kerry 42%
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/southflorida/sfl-afloridapoll29feb29,0,3146156.story?coll=sfla-home-headlines THE ONLY SURVEY WE SHOULD CONCERN OURSELVES WITH AT THIS POINT IS THE ONE THAT WILL BE RELEASED NEXT FRIDAY (March 5) -- THE JOBS REPORT FOR FEBRUARY!!!
If this report is positive, i.e., exceeds analyst expectations, the President's approval ratings/match-ups will get a boost. If not . . . we'll have to wait until March!!
Remember, we're involved in an election marathon NOT a sprint!
I'd love to see the actual questions asked, and the actual democratic, oops, demographics of those asked.
LOL!!! Craven Broadcastin Station Poll??? Are we supposed to take this network seriously. What a bunch of boobs.