Next stop: Cooperstown (Paul Molitor should become the third Minnesotan in baseball's Hall of Fame).

St. Paul Pioneer Press ^ | January 4, 2004 | Bob Sansevere

[GreatOne]

Should get in easily. When you look at his stats (go to www.baseball-reference.com) and see that he missed at least 600 games over his career due to injury and strike, you realize that he quite possibly would have approached 4000 hits had he stayed healthy. It's also very depressing for Twins' fans to look at what he did in his first year with them and wonder what the team could have done in Kirby Puckett had not been injured.

Coming with Molitor will be Dennis Eckersley for certain. I am absolutely baffled as to why Jim Rice is not in - the most dominent slugger for 10 years with 9 years of 100+ r.b.i. and 4 years of 200+ hits. If not for his last year, he would've retired with a .300 batting average, and he did have a .502 slugging percentage.

Also going in should be Bruce Sutter, Rich Gossage, and Lee Smith. This bias against closers must end. All 3 of these are leaps and bounds better than any closer pitching today, demonstrating their worthiness.

Joe Carter doesn't cut it with me, in spite of his r.b.i.'s, primarily because of his low batting average and obp. His home run numbers, while good, aren't HOF material IMHO.

Jack Morris should be in, in spite of his high e.r.a., because of his high winning percentage and dominence.

I'm really torn on Bert Blyleven. In spite of his high strikeouts and low e.r.a.(and his great job as an announcer), I look at the fact that he really only 14-15 wins per year, even though they were with crappy teams. But if Blyleven, then why not Jim Kaat, who not only had similar stats with wins and e.r.a, but was also probably the best fielding pitcher in history.

As for the rest of the eligible players, particularly Sandberg, Parker, Murphy, Trammell, Concepcion, and Garvey, they were all great ballplayers, but not amongst the best in history, which is what we're talking about here.

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[speedy]

There is no question that, based on his stats, Molitor is a shoo-in for the Hall. Still, it seemed to me that at no point in his career would anyone have considered him among the top handful of active players. He is kind of an anomaly, in part because you don't really associate him with any one position. No doubt a career spent in small market franchises also worked against him. When you watched, say, Barry Bonds or Nolan Ryan or Johnny Bench or Mike Schmidt, you had no doubt you were looking at a Hall of Fame athlete. Molitor never gave that impression, although again I agree he belongs in the Hall without question. Maybe it's that Don Sutton factor at work again. You never would have rated him at any point among the top four or five pitchers, but over the course of his career he built up unquestionable Hall stats. I think Morris deserves to be in as the winningest pitcher of the 80s -- I am pretty sure that any pitcher who led a decade in wins is in, even though it is an obviously artificial measure. Agree with you competely on Sutter and Gossage without even looking at the records -- you knew when you watched them they were at the pinnacle of their position for years. I never felt that way about Lee Smith, despite all of his saves (and saves may be second only to GWRBI as a deceptive stat.) By the same token I think Mariano Rivera should be an easy selection.

[GreatOne]

Don Sutton has always troubled me - he's in solely because of his 300 wins, but his stats year-by-year are not any better than Blyleven, Kaat, or John. Those guys are definitely above-average, but I'd never think of them as the best. Jack Morris would be thought of that way. Lee Smith was just automatic every time out. A closer really can't just "hang on" to accumulate stats as a starter can. They either can close out a game or they can't. I also stand corrected - Rivera is as good as Gossage, Sutter, and Smith, but I think that's about it in today's game.

[speedy]

Totally concur that Sutton fits more with Blyleven, Kaat and John than with the pitchers whose victory totals he is closer to, like Carlton and Seaver and Clemens, all of whom were vastly superior in my view. I really do think sometimes you have to have seen the players to make these calls. I remember a Bill James essay pointing out that Don Drysdale, Vida Blue and Milt Pappas all had nearly identical records, yet few people who saw them pitch would rate them as equals. To some extent the age you saw them at affects your image, too. To this day, I have still not seen a pitcher who ever seemed as unhittably dominant as Sandy Koufax -- and maybe no one ever was -- but if you compare relevant stats and adjust them for the park and the period they played in, Pedro Martinez's numbers may actually be superior. But I saw Koufax as a kid. Well, that's what baseball arguments are for. Agree with you on Rice too. One of the most feared hitters of his era ( but not real friendly with the sports writers who vote on these things -- what is it with Red Sox players and writers?) One more thing on relievers -- without glancing at stats, Troy Percival is a guy who has seemed unhittable to me, but I usually see him against the Yankees, who rarely get so much as a well-hit foul ball off of him. Somebody must hit him.

[Lawgvr1955]

When the closers mentioned in the article came in to pitch, you knew it was time for the announcer to tell everyone to drive safely home from the game. As a Cardinal fan, I got to see Sutter, Eckersley and Smith on a regular basis. I would like to see them all in the Hall.

I am so old I remember seeing Koufax and Drysdale pitch in person, usually against Bob Gibson. Exciting games, always 1-0, 2-1, or so. Nothing like the "football scores" of today's games. Baseball listened to the pollsters and decided people prefer to watch home run derby as opposed to these titanic pitching duels. Oh well.

[GreatOne]

While James is correct as to the overall stats of Drysdale, Blue, and Pappas, Drysdale quit in the prime of his career at age 32 (why did he do that?), while Pappas and Blue played on, building up identical stats. Also, Drysdale had several truly dominating seasons, whereas Pappas didn't have even one. Looking at Vida Blue's career stats, if he had quit at age 32, he would have merited stronger HOF consideration. Don't know what the drop off was for (drugs or injuries, or both) after age 32, but he had several truly dominant seasons.

If Koufax had been able to pitch longer, he would have blown away anything that Martinez has done/will do, even taking into consideration Martinez's injuries. Easily more wins, strike outs, shut outs, and lower e.r.a.

In that same vein, look at the career stats of Jim Bunning and Greg Maddux - with the exception of the less losses and lower e.r.a., virtually the same. I was surprised to see that Maddux had only won 20 games twice, while winning 19 games another 5 times. Bunning won 20 games once and 19 games 4 times.

Finally, I wouldn't put Percival into the same category as the other relievers - too high e.r.a. I wish that baseball-reference.com had a "blown saves" category for even better comparison.

[GreatOne]

I envy you - to see Spahn, Koufax, Gibson, and Marichal pitch against each other must have been heaven, as well as Mays, Aaron, Clemente, F.Robinson, and McCovery. Not too much like that in the recent past, as the most dominent pitching match-up would have been Seaver vs. Carlton, and I'm too young and in Minnesota to have seen that.

[Lawgvr1955]

When I tell my daughter (I made her into a big baseball fan) that I saw all those players in their prime, she accuses me of being an "oldster". I was pretty fortunate. My dad started taking me to games when I was barely able to remember. Being from near St. Louis, my biggest brag is I got to see Stan "The Man" Musual hit a home run.

You would have been thrilled to see Marichaul pitch. He kicked his leg so high, you wondered how he ever saw the plate.

Sorry to run you down Memory Lane. I enjoyed your post. Thanks.

[speedy]

Okay GO, took some time to do a little research on the Pedro vs. Koufax issue. Amazingly, Pedro does seem to come out ahead relative to his era (although I would still take Koufax on my team, if only because he is a much classier person and team player.) Koufax, pitching in a great pitcher's park, went 165-87 for a .655 pct. His career ERA was 2.76; during his career, the league ERA was 3.63, so he was .87 runs below the average. Pedro, who is just about now the same age as Sandy when he retired, has a record of 166-67 for a .714 pct. Now here is where the eye-popping stat is. His lifetime ERA playing much of his time in a hitter's park is 2.58; over this span, the league ERA has been 4.50 -- he is almost two runs a game lower than the league average -- I really doubt if anyone else in baseball history has such a discrepancy. Pedro has pitched on better hitting teams than Koufax, so that has boosted his pct; Sandy played on usually weak-hitting teams and probably lost more 2-1 games in a given season than Martinez has for his whole career. Of course, Koufax had some bad years to start when he was still very wild; Pedro did not have so long of an incubation period. Still, to give the devil his due, his stats are unbelievable.

Much as I liked (and continue to like) Senator Jim Bunning, his record does not hold up to Maddux's. BTW, I grew up near Philly and saw Jim pitch many times -- he was a very nice guy and was pleasant to us kids when we would wait around after the game to talk to the players outside the stadium. Anyway, Jim's record was 224-184 with a 3.27 career ERA (the league ERA for his career was 3.74). Maddux is 289-163 with an ERA of 2.89 (the league has been at 4.12 during his career.) So in relation to the league, Greg has by far the best of it. Of course he has played for better teams than Bunning, who spent most of his career with mediocre Tigers and Phillies teams.

As for Drysdale -- I agree, he retired very young for a guy who had been such a workhorse. I recall that he developed shoulder problems midway through the 1969 season -- just one year after he set the scoreless innings streak -- and quickly retired. You always got the impression with him that there were a lot of other things he felt he could do (like acting and broadcasting.) He was one nasty guy on the mound -- certainly up there with Clemens and Martinez for mound hostility -- but was a nicer guy off of it than those two.

Yes, Blue got involved with cocaine (even did some light jail time, if memory serves, with several other Royals) and that had to curtail his career. His rookie year he was unbelievable -- he seemed like one of the all-time greats. A career (and drug) path similar to another great talent, Dwight Gooden. I enjoy your posts and appreciate the chance to mull over some baseball.

[speedy]

I agree with you that the offensive stats have gotten way out of line. I'm from the same era as you and also miss those Drysdale-Marichal extra inning 1-0 games. Of course, baseball in the mid to late 60s was a bit too far in the other extreme from today -- there was too little offense. Like the notorious 1968 season, when Yaz won the batting crown by hitting .301 -- and still finished far ahead of the second-place guy, the immortal Danny Cater, who hit .290. I hate the easy 40-50 home run seasons of today, but I still want more offense than that.

Very few pitchers were as much fun to watch as Marichal. He must have had 15 different pitches and deliveries. And Gibson was another one I hated to see out there -- just give up. What a competitor.

I used to like Ken Boyer. He died way too young. For many years, he was second only to Eddie Mathews as the best third baseman in the NL. And Mathews is another guy who has not gotten his due, even being in the Hall. As an all-around performer, he was only a hair below Mike Schmidt, who I think is the greatest third sacker ever. Yeah, and George Brett could play for me too, but Schmitty was a baseball god -- under today's conditions, he would be hitting 60-70 every year, because he was better than Sosa and Sosa is doing 50-60.

[Lawgvr1955]

One thing about baseball now is the movement of players. The reserve clause did work to the detriment of the players, but for the fans it worked. The stars of your team played there for years. Not like today when you have to remember a whole scorecard every April.

I was a Kenny Boyer fan, but one of my first ball gloves was an Eddie Matthews. What would a Schmidt or Brett be worth in todays game? How about Willie Mays?? Not enough money to pay guys like that.

[speedy]

No argument. Free agency has obviously made players wealthy but has torn at the fabric of the game -- fan loyalty -- and at some point a price is paid for that, too. It was great being able to identify so many players with their teams -- I wasn't even a Cubs fan, but it's so easy to rattle off the names of their teams in the 60s -- Banks and Beckert and Kessinger and Santo and Williams and Hundley and Jenkins, etc. Lots of stability; you could do it with any team -- if you say Cash, McAuliffe, Northrup, Horton, Kaline, Stanley, Freehan, Lolich -- you know you are talking Tigers. For so many years the Pirates outfield was Clemente, Virdon and Skinner, with Maz at second and Groat at short and Law and Friend on the mound and Elroy Face in the pen. Sure made it easy on the fans. Another fond memory is no blasting rock music and inane scoreboard games. All of the stuff aimed at the customer who is not there primarily to watch baseball. I think the Dodgers were the last team to stick with quiet organ music during the game.

[Lawgvr1955]

True, as I was reading the names on your post, I could tell you the team.

And we collected ball cards because we liked the players. Heck, I probably had cards worth tens of thousands of dollars. (More power to them, but I am saddened to see kids buy cards for their financial value). The kids of today really missed out on something special I am afraid. Now I certainly sound like an oldster. But it is true.

[GreatOne]

I've read those stats comparing the player to their era, and I don't know if I put too much credence in them. This is because, well, with approximately twice as many players playing today in the majors, there are players who would've never been in the majors during Koufax's time. I think that that skews that type of statistic.

I'd also take Koufax ahead of Pedro without any 2nd guessing. If Koufax had been able to pitch another 6-8 years, he most likely would've ended up with 300 wins, 4000 strike outs, and an e.r.a. under 2.50.

All-time, I'd have Mathewson and Johnson as my rightys (hardly original, I know) and Grove and Koufax as my leftys (although I'm tempted at times to think Carlton over Grove). Infield would be Gehrig, Hornsby, Wagner, Schmidt, and Berra. Outfield would be Ruth, Mays, and Williams. I have steroid issues with Bonds, but who would you kick off in place of him?

I enjoy going back and forth with you as well. I'm only 33, but have been a huge fan since I was 8, reading hundreds of books and having 4 editions of the Baseball Encyclopedia.

[GreatOne]

When reading about Warren Spahn recently, it was said that he also had a huge leg kick. Whose was higher (I've seen footage of Marichal, but not much of Spahn)?

[IndyTiger]

I agree with your infield except I would have Johnny Bench as my catcher, and Bob Feller as a RH pitcher. If not for the four years Feller lost due to WWII service, his stats would be unbelievable.

Never forgave my Indians for trading Eckersley in '78. Tribe management said at the time, with his herky-jerky motion, Eckersley would have arm trouble and be washed up in a few years. NOT!

[speedy]

Yup, it was fun collecting cards not as investments but just to get as many players as you could. When people started buying whole sets at the start of each season, and then left them in the wrappers, I knew things had changed. I enjoyed the challenge of trying to fill in the checklist, doing it the inefficient but fun way of buying individual packs with the rough pink gum smell still on the cards. What a great day it was the first day the new cards arrived in the store, usually late March or early April. You remember ridiculous things from too much exposure to those cards. For no reason at all, I recall Carlton Willey being from Cherryfield, Maine and Joey Jay living in Lutz, Florida. Here are a few old Cardinal names from my earliest baseball card memories -- Don Blasingame; Hal Smith; Gene Green; Vinegar Bend Mizell; Larry Jackson; and of course the immortal Ernie Broglio.

[Colonel_Flagg]

I'm really torn on Bert Blyleven. In spite of his high strikeouts and low e.r.a.(and his great job as an announcer), I look at the fact that he really only 14-15 wins per year, even though they were with crappy teams. But if Blyleven, then why not Jim Kaat, who not only had similar stats with wins and e.r.a, but was also probably the best fielding pitcher in history.

If Robin Yount can make it in as a .285 lifetime hitter, the fifth-leading strikeout pitcher of all time (Blyleven) certainly can. If Don Sutton, who had comparable statistics and 324 wins while playing with much better teams, can get in then Blyleven certainly can.

[irish guard]

Does he go in as a Brewer or a Bluejay?