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15 Trapped in Mudslide in Southern California
Associated Press ^ | December 25, 2003

Posted on 12/25/2003 7:13:11 PM PST by Dog Gone

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1 posted on 12/25/2003 7:13:13 PM PST by Dog Gone
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To: Dog Gone
The latest report is over 7" of rain in 12 hours for Lytle Creek.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/TotalForecast/miscObs/raws/CA/LYTLE.CREEK.html

2 posted on 12/25/2003 8:11:37 PM PST by Looking for Diogenes
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To: Looking for Diogenes
That would cause flooding anywhere, but with the burned out hillsides, this is big trouble.
3 posted on 12/25/2003 8:14:22 PM PST by Dog Gone
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To: Dog Gone
And they don't allow logging because it might cause erosion.
4 posted on 12/25/2003 8:16:20 PM PST by Carry_Okie (The environment is too complex and too important to manage by politics.)
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To: Dog Gone; Ernest_at_the_Beach
Bumping for So Cal FReepers...
5 posted on 12/25/2003 8:17:22 PM PST by tubebender (Don't believe anything you hear and only half of what you see...)
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To: tubebender
Thanks for the ping.

Storm is moving thru rapidly, now almost clear , but very breezy here at the beach!
6 posted on 12/25/2003 10:16:41 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach (Davis is now out of Arnoold's Office , Bout Time!!!!)
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To: Dog Gone
The rain gauge sat at 3.29" at 6 p.m. 12/24/03. It is up at 11.87" at 11:20 p.m. 12/25/03. The rain seems to have stopped.

The heaviest rain occured between 4:20 p.m. and 5:20 p.m., when 1.3" fell.

7 posted on 12/25/2003 11:44:55 PM PST by Looking for Diogenes
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To: Carry_Okie
And they don't allow logging because it might cause erosion.

But this erosion is OK because nobody is making a profit.

8 posted on 12/26/2003 2:49:57 AM PST by snopercod (CAUTION: Do not operate heavy equipment while reading this post.)
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To: Carry_Okie
And they don't allow logging because it might cause erosion.

The mountains in that area are a part of the Angeles National Forest. The four Southern Californian forests are principally managed for recreation and watershed preservation. The last logging in Angeles was in WWII, on an emergency basis.

One hundred and twenty years ago the forests were being burned by ranchers trying to increase the grazing for their cattle and sheep. That led to increased erosion which flowed down into the cities and nearly destroyed them. Some local businessmen and property-owners, most prominently Abbot Kinney, lobbied to stop the practice and preserve the watershed that Los Angeles depended on for water. Their efforts led to the passage of the national Forest Preserve Act in 1893. Angeles was the second national preserve designated under the act.

The Angeles National Forest has been a model and a testing ground for modern forestry practices. Gifford Pinchot, America's first professionally trained forester, was an early superintendent. Theodore Lukens, a local who became an early superintendent, is known as the "father of forestry," for his experiments in reforestation. The San Dimas Experimental Forest, recently burned in the Curve-Williams Fire, is one of the National Forest Services prime laboratories. The San Gabriels mountains are among the fastest eroding in the world, shedding 7 tons per acre per year according to John McPhee. The entire Los Angeles basin is built up from the alluvium of the range to a depth of several thousand feet. Erosion control is an enormous issue.

9 posted on 12/26/2003 8:43:56 AM PST by Looking for Diogenes
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To: Looking for Diogenes
Nice history, thanks, one of people using public lands for politically determined purposes, seeking to get others to foot the bill for the externalities of their preferred uses, with everybody paying for it in the end in destroyed habitat. It is a parable for the Tragedy of the Commons.

You have to go to a period earlier than when your story starts to get the gist of how the system was altered. Tom Bonnicksen documented that pre-existing condition in his book: America's Ancient Forests, From the Ice-Age to the Age of Discovery.

If we looked back two hundred years, 91 percent of our forests were more open because Indian and lightning fires burned regularly. These were mostly gentle fires that stayed on the ground as they wandered around under the trees. You could walk over the flames without burning your legs even though they occasionally flared up and killed small groups of trees. Such hot spots kept forests diverse by creating openings where young trees and shrubs could grow. At that time, stand densities were from 40-50 trees per acre. When Arrowhead burned, stand densities were up to 2,000 trees per acre. The only way to deal with a stand density like that is to log it. That is why I said what I did.

Living in Santa Cruz County on timbered property, I'm well aware of erosion in the California Coast Ranges. The problems we face in land management are structural consequences of socialism. I've written a fair amount on the topic.

10 posted on 12/26/2003 9:50:09 AM PST by Carry_Okie (The environment is too complex and too important to manage by politics.)
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To: Carry_Okie
Nice history, thanks, one of people using public lands for politically determined purposes, seeking to get others to foot the bill for the externalities of their preferred uses, with everybody paying for it in the end in destroyed habitat. It is a parable for the Tragedy of the Commons.

Nope. The 'tragedy of the commons' occured before the land came under federal control. Then ranchers used the land in their narrow private interest, destroying its greater good. For the past 110 years the land has been well-managed as a watershed, providing far greater benefit to the people of the surrounding area then the small value of the timber on the land.

Water aside, the economic value of the range as a recreation area for hiker, hunters, fisherman, and skiers is also much higher than it's timber is worth.

Over in the neighboring San Benardino Mtns, which are more heavily forested, arguments can certainly be made that thinning the forests through logging or controlled burns may be desirable. Unfortunately, logging is not economically viable, in part because there are no mills around and in part because the area is a patchwork of private and public ownership.

Erosion in the San Gabriels is an order of magnitude great then that of the mountains in Santa Cruz.

11 posted on 12/26/2003 10:18:29 AM PST by Looking for Diogenes
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To: Dog Gone
Enviros prevented clearing of the forests. Uncleared forests created the largest wildfires in history. The wildfires destroyed the ground cover, leaving bare ground. Bare ground washed away when it rained, killing at least 10.
12 posted on 12/26/2003 10:23:38 AM PST by gitmo (Who is John Galt?)
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To: gitmo
Uncleared forests created the largest wildfires in history. The wildfires destroyed the ground cover, leaving bare ground. Bare ground washed away when it rained, killing at least 10.

Have you ever been to the area? By and large it was brush that burned, not trees. If the brush had been cleared there would have been mudslides too. The nature of the local mountains is for heavy rains (7" in 24 hours) to cause heavy erosion.

13 posted on 12/26/2003 10:49:20 AM PST by Looking for Diogenes
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To: 2sheep
At least seven people were rescued from the Saint Sophia Camp in Waterman Canyon, just north of San Bernardino...

Here is wisdom, near the San Bernardio Mtns/Big Bear ping.

14 posted on 12/26/2003 10:55:28 AM PST by Thinkin' Gal
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To: Looking for Diogenes
Studies at Kowheeta Watershed have shown that if cleared properly, clearing land can prevent such. But the issue was the thinning of the forest lands, not the brushlands.
15 posted on 12/26/2003 10:58:59 AM PST by gitmo (Who is John Galt?)
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To: gitmo
I couldn't find anything in Google for "Kowheeta." Is that the right spelling? In any case, these mountains ranges are mostly brush with forests at the highest elevations. The recent fires principally burned the steep, brush-covered slopes and only touched a small portion of the relatively flat treed areas.
16 posted on 12/26/2003 11:08:19 AM PST by Looking for Diogenes
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To: Looking for Diogenes
Here is an excerpt from a review of McPhee's book, "The Control of Nature."
The San Gabriels are young mountains and still growing. The have, in places, grades of 85 percent. Due to the history of earthquakes in the are, the rock is fractured and unstable. Shedding, spalling, self-destructing, they are disintegrating at a rate that is are disintegrating at a rate that is among the fastest in the world. Los Angeles and its surrounding communities have pushed hard up against these mountains. The mountain canyons suffer from debris flows. There are flows of water, mud and rock that come down the mountain canyons like black walls, carrying all before them.

Strung out along the mountain front are some 120 bowl-shaped excavations resembling football stadiums and of about the same size. They are known as debris basins. re known as debris basins. Blocked at their downstream side with earthfill or concrecte, they stand ready to capture rivers of boulders. For 50 miles they mark the mountain boundary. They are worth hundreds of millions of dollars. All of this to keep the mountain from falling on Los Angelenos.

To stabilize mountain stream-beds and stop descending rocks even before they reach the debris basins, numerous crib structures, barriers made of concrete slats, are emplaced in the high canyons. The debris basins have caught as much as six hundred thousand cubic yards in a single storm. Over time they have trapped 20 million tons of mud and rock. The basins must be regularly cleaned but the mountains, still young, keep growing, and the rock keeps coming. It is the authorities of Los Angeles against the mountains. Time is on the side of the mountains.

3 essays dealing with man's attempts to control nature


17 posted on 12/26/2003 11:34:31 AM PST by Looking for Diogenes
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To: Looking for Diogenes
Nope. The 'tragedy of the commons' occured before the land came under federal control. Then ranchers used the land in their narrow private interest, destroying its greater good. For the past 110 years the land has been well-managed as a watershed, providing far greater benefit to the people of the surrounding area then the small value of the timber on the land.

Sorry, for the last 110 years it's been a democratized commons, restricted in use to a majority claim on the use of the land. What you call "greater good" is merely a matter of public opinion, a subjective interpretation at best. In recent years it's become a socialized commons, restricted in use to the agency claim on the use of the land in the interest of the politically dominant. In either case, you can't call 2,000 trees per acre well-managed.

18 posted on 12/26/2003 12:07:27 PM PST by Carry_Okie (The environment is too complex and too important to manage by politics.)
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To: Dog Gone
Fox is saying 9 children are missing still, plus they have the names of 3 others that are missing AND they know they had up to 4 cars in the area. So they are estimating that they could have as many as 20 missing still. 9 (children) + 3 (others) + 8 (that may have been in the cars). They have recovered 2 bodies. So it possible that up to 22 have died (20 missing and 2 recovered so far) and another 14 escaped death. (Fox has 14 missing on the ticker, but they recovered 2 of the 14, per the sheriff.)
19 posted on 12/26/2003 12:20:29 PM PST by stlnative
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To: Carry_Okie
What you call "greater good" is merely a matter of public opinion, a subjective interpretation at best. In recent years it's become a socialized commons, restricted in use to the agency claim on the use of the land in the interest of the politically dominant.

I suppose any interpretation would be subjective. But it is clear that these mountains are a source of dangerous debris flows (as evidenced by this latest tragedy). It is also a fact that the surrounding communites depend on the water supplied by the streams and rivers coming out of these mountains. Those are the primary concerns of land managers. The only reason to thin the forest is for its long-term health and to fulfill those other missions. In less inhabited parts of the San Gabriel and San Bernardino forests they have been able to conduct controlled-burns. But the San Bernardinos in particular have many communities and inholdings that limit the ability to burn safely.

Those same communities also make it difficult to cut the logs down. Rather then economically efficient clear cutting, it is more like urban tree removal. The price per tree is around $2,000, for beyond the value of the lumber as firewood in the already saturated market. Rather than being the tragedy of the commons, this is the tragedy of the small-holdings.

20 posted on 12/26/2003 12:34:52 PM PST by Looking for Diogenes
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