Flu Spreads to All 50 States

Fox News ^ | 12/11/2003

[Bean Counter]

Well, I plan on doing the same thing I do every year to fight the flu: I sit in my sauna and sweat at the first sign of a sniffle. Works every time.

As to the "shortage" of vaccine, the media has managed to scare up above average interest in the flu. Pharmaceutical companies will only produce as much vaccine as projected demand requires.
If more people than average are seeking injections, it's not surprizing that there may be a shortage. In any case, there is no epidemic, and there is no reason to panic.

[riri]

It's simple math for criminy's sake.

[CathyRyan]

Date Wed 10 Dec 2003
From: Marianne Hopp
Source:World Heath Organisation (WHO), CSR, Disease Outbreak report, Wed 10
Dec 2002 [edited]
Northern Hemisphere: Influenza Epidemic Spreads to More Countries - WHO Update 3
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Significant increases in influenza activity associated with influenza A(H3N2) viruses continue in some countries in Europe (Finland, France, and Norway) and North America (United States); in other European countries (Portugal and Spain), widespread influenza A(H3N2) activity persists. In some parts of Canada and United Kingdom (UK), where influenza activity was first noted this season, the number of cases has started to decline, although it is too early to predict the trend.

A rising trend has also been observed in a number of European countries (Czech Republic, Denmark, Italy, Latvia, Russian Federation, and Switzerland), although influenza activity remains low at present.

Influenza B viruses are most frequently reported from Asia (Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China, Republic of Korea, and Thailand); sporadic cases have been detected in Europe and North America. With the exception of an outbreak in Iceland between weeks 41 and 46, very few influenza A(H1) cases have been reported worldwide.

This season, most influenza outbreaks are being attributed to influenza A(H3N2) virus, and most viruses antigenically characterized so far have been confirmed to be A/Fujian/411/2002-like, with the rest being A/Panama/2007/99-like.

Austria (29 Nov 2003)
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Influenza A virus was first detected in week 48.

Canada (29 Nov 2003)
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During week 48, influenza activity declined in Alberta and Saskatchewan but increased in other parts of Canada, particularly British Columbia, Ontario, and Nunavut. Influenza-like illness (ILI) consultation rate was 42 cases per 1000 consultations, which is above the national baseline level for week 48. During the same week, 18 percent of 2567 laboratory tests were positive for influenza A and no influenza B virus was detected. Of the 155 influenza viruses antigenically characterized by the National Microbiology Laboratory to date, 128 (83 percent) are A/Fujian/411/2002-like, 25 (16 percent) are A/Panama/2007/99-like and one is an A/New Caledonia/20/99-like virus.

Denmark (29 Nov 2003)
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ILI activity started to increase in week 47. In week 48, the ILI consultation rate was above the national baseline, with one influenza A/Fujian/411/2002-like virus detected.

Finland (6 Dec 2003)
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Increased influenza activity has been observed since week 47. During week 49, influenza activity was widespread, with 30 influenza A viruses detected.

France (29 Nov 2003)
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Increased influenza activity has been observed. In week 48, regional activity of influenza A/Fujian/411/2002-like viruses was reported in 13 regions.

Morocco (22 Nov 2003)
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So far this season, influenza activity has remained low, with one influenza A(H1N1) and one A(H3N2) virus detected.

Norway (29 Nov 2003)
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Influenza activity continued to increase. In week 48, widespread activity of influenza A(H3N2) was reported throughout the country. All of the 21 A(H3N2) viruses antigenically characterized so far are A/Fujian/411/2002-like.

Portugal (29 Nov 2003)
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In week 48, influenza A(H3N2) activity was reported as widespread for the 3rd consecutive week. All influenza viruses antigenically characterized so far this season are A/Fujian/411/2002-like.

Republic of Korea (29 Nov 2003
) ------------------------------
The first influenza viruses for the season two influenza B viruses were detected in week 48.

Russian Federation (29 Nov 2002)
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The ILI incidence rate continued to rise in week 48 and exceeded the epidemic threshold in Moscow and St Petersburg. All 3 influenza virus subtypes A(H1N1), A(H3N2) and B were detected. During the same week, 5 influenza A(H3N2) viruses were antigenically characterized and confirmed as A/Panama/2007/99-like.

Spain (29 Nov 2003)
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Influenza activity continued to be widespread during week 48. However, ILI incidence rate slowed down in the Castilla y Leon autonomic community.

Switzerland (29 Nov 2003)
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Increased influenza activity was observed in week 48, particularly in the western part of the country where 9 influenza A viruses were detected.

United Kingdom (29 Nov 2003)
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Influenza activity appears to have levelled off but the trend remains unclear. In week 48, ILI consultation rate remained almost the same as in week 47 in England, continued to decrease in Northern Ireland and Scotland, and kept rising in Wales (although it remained below the baseline level). During week 48, 44 influenza A(H3) viruses and one B virus were detected. Of the viruses antigenically characterized so far, 35 have been confirmed as A/Fujian/411/2002-like and 3 as A/Panama/2007/99-like.

United States (29 Nov 2003)
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Influenza activity continued to increase during week 48. Overall ILI consultation rate was 5.1 percent, which is above the national baseline of 2.5 percent. Widespread influenza activity was reported in 13 states and regional activity was reported in 16 states during week 48; 39.1 percent of the specimens tested were positive for influenza with 1302 influenza A viruses and 7 B viruses identified. Since week 40, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta have antigenically characterized 157 influenza A(H3N2) viruses, of which 45 (29 percent) are A/Panama/2007/99-like and 112 (71 percent) are A/Fujian/411/2002-like.

Other reports
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Low influenza activity was reported in Czech Republic, Germany, Hong Kong SAR, Italy, Thailand, and Ukraine. No influenza activity was reported in Croatia, Iceland, Japan, or Poland.

[riri]

While I do think this is a pretty serious flu, I think sitting here counting deaths is not the way to handle this. It's enough to send even the most sensible parent into a panic. Never mind the fraidy cats like me who fall for every scare mongering event that invloves my children...

[Crazieman]

I'd say the flu's pretty nasty. I caught the stupid thing too. Fever was so high it nearly sent me to the hospital.

[finnman69]

How soon before RATS blame Bush for not preparing the nation for the flu?

[Semper Paratus]

Assuming the numbers then 50,000 divided by flu season of 4 months = 12,500 a month = over 400 per day.

If this was SARS (which was only the hundreds this year) the whole country would be paralyzed.

[vetvetdoug]

Ping......cough cough.....

[DeepDish]

I agree that the media has made the shortage worse. But there is no doubt that the season has started earlier than usual. It would be helpful to know how many children have died of the flu in past years. Then useful comparisons can be made.

The problem with the vaccine availibility is that the number of doses have to planned in advance. The companies that manufacture them have to take the loss for the unsold doses. If the public wants more doses made available each year then they will pay for that, one way or another. There is no other way to say this. The question is how? If the government were to offer to buy the unused doses this would help. The drawback is that the drug companies could not resist the idea of making 300 million doses each year of a vaccine that normally markets 30 million. Plus , since the government is buying, they would want twice as much for it.
Not to mention the money spent on the beltway bandits to "study the problem" for 3 years before anything is done.

If this years flu is worse than normal, then next years demand for vaccine will be higher. But if next years flu is mild, then vaccine demand in following years will plummet. I do not see any solution to this problem. It is human nature.

Still, forcing some overproduction of vaccine would be a good thing. As long as it does not become a taxpayer ripoff to support drug companies. I do not begrudge them their profits. But I will not support gravy trains.

[DeepDish]

Take two aspirin and call me in the morning, with your credit card info. :) ping

[riri]

But I will not support gravy trains

Me neither, unless ofcourse I have a boarding pass for said train. ha

[PleaseNoMore]

An otherwise healthy, not at risk little boy in the county next to me died Saturday from complications of the flu. It was the first death due to the flu here in NC that I have heard about. I just got home from the doctor's office with my three boys. They all tested positive for the flu. I am not in a panic but I am concerned. My 17 yo seems especially hard hit.

[Born Conservative]

There are still plenty of vaccines left over; however, it's of the nasal vaccine (Flumist), not the shot. I've read reports that 4 million doses of Flumist were produced, but only 250,000 given. Why so many left over? The cost is $80 per dose (and children 5-9 who never had the flu vaccine need 2 doses the first season), most insurances don't cover it, the only people who can receive it must be healthy (no chronic medical conditions) and between the ages of 5-49.

I don't agree that the government should be involved in buying back unused doses. If we vaccinate those at high risk, and there's enough left over for those that are healthy, that's fine. As for the shortage now, I think the proper analogy would be that those seeking the flu vaccine now are similar to those who live on the coast, and know that a hurricane is coming soon, but choose not to buy any plywood until right before the storm,and by that time it's sold out.

[Born Conservative]

Hopefully your family will "weather the storm" well and not suffer from a severe consequences from the flu. I'm glad that you CORRECTLY state that the child died from COMPLICATIONS, and not directly from the flu. Occasionally a healthy person does die from complications, but this isn't the norm; I would think that most flu deaths are in those who have underlying conditions.

[PleaseNoMore]

Hopefully we will fare well through this year's bout. Thank you for your well wishes. It is a bit disconcerting to hear the stories of the deaths of young children and teens and then have your own become sick with the same illness blamed for those deaths.

My mother and I have been wondering why so many children have died. We both concluded that there must have been something along with the flu that caused these deaths. After all, you may feel like you are dying but just dropping dead because you have influenza isn't normal, is it?

[Born Conservative]

After all, you may feel like you are dying but just dropping dead because you have influenza isn't normal, is it?

People with severe influenza certainly do feel like they are dying because of the muscle and body pain as well as high fever. I would say that if a person with flu develops breathing difficulty, fever >104, or is coughing up blood, they should seek medical evaluation. Try to keep in mind that the vast majority of people who develop flu recover without problems. Dropping over dead because of the flu is not the norm.

[PleaseNoMore]

I didn't think that it was the norm. My boys' temps were 104 today but are responsing well to ibuprofen. Miles (17) and Mason (7) have the worst of it with ALL of the symptoms while Jacob (12) only has the congestion which I will have to keep a close eye on as he is prone to sinus infections whenever he gets a cold.

The oddest thing ( for us ) about this season's bout is that there was no warning. Usually when we get it we notice a sore throat, stuffy nose or something that tells us something is going on. This time the kids just woke up with the high temps and severe headaches.

[buwaya]

Ditto - I haven't been so sick in years.

Both kids are still down with it too.

[buwaya]

Same with us. Both kids (3 and 7) just started with fevers.

[Born Conservative]

Actually, the symptoms you describe are classic flu. Flu symptoms include sudden onset of symptoms, high fever of 102-104, headache, severe body aches/pains, fatigue and weakness lasting up to 2-3 weeks, extreme exhaustion, cough, and less commonly a stuffy nose, sneezing, and sore throat. Source: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.