US to Taiwan: don't provoke China (So much for standing for freedom GW.)

UPI ^ | 12/8/03 | staff

[AUH2OY2K]

Either you are for freedom or you are against it. Either you support forced abortions or you don't. Either you support religious genocide or you don't. Either you are with us or against us. Sounds like Bush has just embraced the axis of evil. He has made his choice. Now, we must make ours.

[AUH2OY2K]

Provoke a war with China? Why would a relatively small group of people stand up and fight against a tyrannical regime? Perhaps the Revolutionary War should be your guide. Buy yourself the Federalist Papers. They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.
The United States is presented with a choice. One country has freedom of religion. The other engages in religious genocide. One country has free elections, open courts and humanitarian laws. The other country is a totalizing regime that engages in slavery, torture, and the exportation of international terrorism and weapons of mass destruction. Bush has cast his lot with totalitarianism and terrorism by supporting Communist China. At one point Bush proclaimed that the we had to make a choice between good and evil. Bush has now made his choice very clear.

[Remember_Salamis]

We have a lot of forces to deploy there. Let me explain: Iraq is a ground war; China-Taiwan will be a Air and Naval War. The USN is a non-factor in Iraq and the USAF is a small player. If for some reason the China-Taiwan crisis required ground forces (unlikely), we can get them from the peninsula (korea). South Korea is more than capable of beating back the north koreans BY THEMSELVES. Although the Army's pretty busy at the moment, as an Active Duty Airman my self I can assure you that our Airmen and Sailors are more than capable of getting the job done.

[Remember_Salamis]

The key to North Asian security is a rearmed Japan. Although that srtikes fear into allof asia, let me console them: a rearmed Japan on an american leash is not a threat to them at all. On the contrary, Chinese policy towards the ASEAN member nation closely resembles the Japanese Empire's "Greater East Asian Co-prosperity sphere" than anything that Free Japan would do.

[dwilli]

Name all the major conflicts that have been won from the air or sea without ground forces.

I would imagine our air munitions inventory is pretty low at present. What I understand it takes 18 months manufacturing time to replace a cruise missile.

[dwilli]

China doesn't have airborne infantry assault capabilities?
How many Chinese troops would it take to overrun Taiwan?

We ain't talking about South Korea here.

Are you sure our government would attempt to stop a Chinese assault on the Island?

[Remember_Salamis]

The Army's job is to "hold ground". If we're not holding ground, we don't need them!

[tallhappy]

Maybe he's just trying to head off a war.

Peace in our Time.

Not standing on fundamental principles and appeasement dictatorships has a great track record for avoiding war, doesn't it.

Fact of the matter is this untruthful policy is the only thing that makes war possible in this context. Rather than avoid war it encourages the Chinese communists.

[holdmuhbeer]

we don't have the soldiers necessary right now to battle china folks. we've got enough going on already.

[tallhappy]

What can GWB do if China decides to invade Taiwan?

They are not going to invade Taiwan and if anyone in the Bush administration believed that they are not qualified to be working at their position.

Still, let's say you are right. Acting like Chamberlain won't help.

[Steel Wolf]

China doesn't have airborne infantry assault capabilities?

The PLA's paratroop unit is the 15th Airborne Army, which is similar to our 82nd Airborne Division except that they don't jump very often, they don't have much equipment or training, and they don't have much aircraft to move them around.

Putting paratroopers in slow moving aircraft and flying them direcly over the target isn't done anymore. The transport bird will get shot down by either Taiwanese fighters or SAMs, and the PLAAF will lose both the troops and the aircraft.

How many Chinese troops would it take to overrun Taiwan?

There is no land bridge to Taiwan. There are only a few beaches suitable for making a landing, the rest are rocky cliffs. That means that all invading forces must pass through a narrow little corridor before making it in, and to even get to that corridor, they have to traverse 200 odd miles of denied ocean. If the PLAN and PLAAF lose control of the sea while their troops are floating around, Taiwan can smash the bulk of the invasion force while they paddle for shore.

We ain't talking about South Korea here.

No, the Chinese can and have walked to South Korea. They can't walk to Taiwan.

Are you sure our government would attempt to stop a Chinese assault on the Island?

Yes. It would be easy to do, and against the interests of the entire region not to.

[gooleyman]

I guess it wasn't crud afterall. I saw him say it today on the evening news. I don't know what he's got up his sleave, but I hope it's a good one.

I remember Reagan wining and dining Gorby (and vice-versa) while he worked to cause the fall of the Soviet Union. Maybe we'll see a similar situation here. I hope anyway.

Either way, with Iraq and Afghanistan raging, we really shouldn't have to commit any troops anywhere else if we can help it. With that in mind, we don't need Taiwan recklessly picking a fight that we are obligated to join. He's telling them to wait a while 'til WE get ready. Or else they may seal their fate in a way contrary to what they want. China would kick the living S out of them without our full fledged help. And we're depleted right now.

[Brilliant]

Taiwan is involved in a meaningless gesture that might cause a military confrontation between the US and China. What's the point?

[squidly]

You really should read up on the history of this issue.

[Brilliant]

Hell, in that case, let's bomb China. You've gotta use a little common sense here. Taiwan is provoking China for no good reason.

[squidly]

Taiwan is already independent and free. Too many people are displaying a lot of ignorance over this issue.

[Brilliant]

Well, China could blow up LA, but that would be no great loss.

[tallhappy]

To: tallhappy You really should read up on the history of this issue.

I am much more familiar with it than you.

What in particular would you like to discuss.

[squidly]

You seem to believe that Dubya is being two-faced (that's what you keep saying), when in fact the United States is committed to the defense of Taiwan. I don't get what your beef is.

[Anthem]

Thanks for the ping. Here's a bit from the press briefing "backgrounder":

SENIOR ADMINISTRATION OFFICIAL: "Some of the topics that came up of course were Taiwan. I would like to say a few words along those lines. I think the President made a very clear comment in response to the question on Taiwan and the cross-Strait relationship. I want to stress here that the President's top goal is preserving the peace in the Taiwan Strait. We are in no way abandoning support for Taiwan's democracy or for the spread of freedom. Indeed, on that regard, I would like to point that we think the spread of freedom is important to all countries, and that's a topic that we discuss with the Chinese very frequently, and did today.

However, though, we're seeing developments on both side of the Strait, forcing us to drop some of the ambiguity that has been in the policy in the past. I will stress here that the President did tell the Chinese in no uncertain terms that we, the United States, would have to get involved if China tried to use coercion or force to unilaterally change the status of Taiwan. And it was in that context that we have been telling Taiwan increasingly clearly that we would likewise not welcome any moves on the part of Taiwan to unilaterally change the status quo.

The President was clear, there are things going on on Taiwan in the context of a hotly contested election that give us -- give us pause. We will speak out if that is necessary.

As I said at the party, I don't think that China would be able to successfully invade Tiawan, nor do I think that they would use nukes -- there would be public oppostion in China to any attempts by the mainland to use force. An invasion is more likely to backfire and bring down the government as have any unifying result. The more likely scenario is continued blustering while Tiawan is somewhat Finlandized by China's economic power. Keep in mind that Tiawan is defacto independent right now and has had more influence on China than the reverse.

Tiawan has had a rocky history with the mainland for the last several hundered years. They have been separate for over a century -- first as a Japanese possesion and then as Chiang Kai-shek's autonomous (and authoritarian) Republic.