It's Here -- Credit Bubble Bulletin, by Doug Noland

PrudentBear.com ^ | 11/21/03 | Doug Noland

[arete]

Mr. Greenspan now habitually chooses to muddy the waters with references to “globalization,” “flexible economies,” “productivity,” “technological advancement,” “financial intermediation,” and the old “savings less investment” muck. The truth of the matter is anything but cryptic: As an economy, we borrow and spend way too much, while producing too little. We speculate way too much and invest way too little. We lack economic self-sufficiency. And despite years of cumulating imbalances, our central bank irresponsibly refuses to address these issues. Rather, the Fed is leaving it to the markets to begin the disciplining process.

Sooner or later, the markets will impose a painful self-disciplining on our economy.

Richard W.

[arete]

FYI

Comments and opinions welcome.

Richard W.

[Willie Green]

We lack economic self-sufficiency. And despite years of cumulating imbalances, our central bank irresponsibly refuses to address these issues.

''If we all join hands together and buy a new SUV, everything will be OK,''

Robert McTeer, President, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

[Always Right]

Sooner or later, the markets will impose a painful self-disciplining on our economy.

Or not. What a load of....

[AmericaUnited]

Right up there with "The market will go up unless it falls..."

[JNB]

Do you have anything of value to contribute to this thread? List the reasons why you think otherwise. The arguement Bears have I find is quite sound, bulls onthe other hand parrot cheap rehortic they read in the WSJ.

With a trade gap that still wont narrow, a increased amount of debt being held by foreigners, and a consumer that depends on stimulus such as "tax rebates" and home re-fis, rather than increased wages, and a small savings rate, the economy is not set up for a sustained healthy recovery.

[Always Right]

Do you have anything of value to contribute to this thread?

Sanity...

[JNB]

If you have a point based on facts and details, please make it. This is not talk radio where the host controls the format, and can get away with one liners and sound bites. Again, please say why you think the opinion of the threads author is in error.

[Orangedog]

He has none. Most of on these threads just ignore him. Typical troll mentality.

[Always Right]

If you have a point based on facts and details, please make it.

It based on the fact that this same old bubble crap is posted day after day after day. These scare-mongering posts are based largely on tin-foil hat paranoia about market manipulations and Greenspan conspiracies. No matter what the facts are about the economy, its the same damn spin every day. For two years this crap has been posted and the track record for their doom and gloom bull sh*t analysis s*cks. I am on record on many of these threads, and I have been dead on. The freerepublic bubble boy club is completely out of touch with reality.

[Always Right]

He has none. Most of on these threads just ignore him. Typical troll mentality.

I place my track record at making predictions over the last two years against everyone of these gloom and doom experts. These guys are on record with sub-5000 DOW predictions, ridiculous comparisons to the Great Depression, bubbles in real estate, bubbles everywhere. It is a freakin joke. I am on record in a lot of these threads, and haven't been off yet. I get laughed at a lot by you fools, but I always have gotten the last laugh.

[JNB]

Actually if you ever read Nolands materal, he is careful not to make predictions, he only points out what is happening in the in the world of credit. If anything, Noland and Financial Sense said to avoid shorting the market short-interdiate term a few months back in face of all the financial stimulus via re-fis and "tax rebates".

In any event, if the market has been so great, than why is it at levels it first hit in the Summer of 98? A 5 year term CD taken out in 98 would have easily outprefromed any of the index'.

[JNB]

Another thing, I have yet to see any time tables, but even if someone time table is wrong, tyhat does not change the fact we are in a dangerous credit and real estate bubble caused by artifically low intrest rates. Yes, the folks at WSJ disagree, but then again, if someone followed the advice of WSJ in the last 5 years, they would be doing worse than someone who played it safe back in the late 90s and put their funds in a CD.

[Always Right]

Yes, the folks at WSJ disagree, but then again, if someone followed the advice of WSJ in the last 5 years, they would be doing worse than someone who played it safe back in the late 90s and put their funds in a CD.

I don't follow too many of the WSJ-types either. I occassionally listen to Bob Brinker who has been remarkable at timing the markets.

Another thing, I have yet to see any time tables, but even if someone time table is wrong, tyhat does not change the fact we are in a dangerous credit and real estate bubble caused by artifically low intrest rates.

Anyone who thinks there is a real estate bubble doesn't have a clue. There a few locations where I wouldn't be anxious to buy, but overall real estate is solid as a rock. Real estate is a neccessity with an increasing demand and a shortening supply. That is not the equation for a bubble. It is just plain silly talk.

[sourcery]

For two years this crap has been posted and the track record for their doom and gloom bull sh*t analysis s*cks.

Let's do a reality check:

Index	Closing price 2001/11/23	Closing price 2003/11/21	Percentage Change
S&P 500	1150	1035	-10%
Nasdaq Composite	1903	1894	-4.7%
DJIA	9960	9629	-3.3%
USD Index	117.37	90.6	-23%
HUI (unhedged gold stocks)	60.46	235.96	+290%

The inescapable conclusion is that the bears have been totally wrong these past two years. Investors who took all their money out of traditional stocks two years ago and invested in gold mining shares will forever rue the day they did such a foolish thing. Will the bears never learn?

[arete]

Please don't confuse him with facts. Some of these guys just make stuff up to fit whatever argument they are trying to make. If you would have been following Puplava for the last two or three years, you would have far out performed the stock market averages. That is a fact.

Richard W.

[arete]

Seems like we have one of those "angry bulls" telling us how wrong and misguided we are. Humm. Maybe your little chart explains why they are so angry.

Richard W.

[JNB]

I remeber when the Euro was down to being worth .84 of a dollar, that most peoplke were calling the Euro "The Zero", most people I know except for one expert currency trader I knew from Yahoo chat said avoid it. Well to make a long stroy short, this currency trade made a killing riding the Euro from .84 to past 1.10.

[Always Right]

The inescapable conclusion is that the bears have been totally wrong these past two years. Investors who took all their money out of traditional stocks two years ago and invested in gold mining shares will forever rue the day they did such a foolish thing. Will the bears never learn?

What a bunch of tripe. I am not always bullish. I think people who are always bearish or bullish are idiots. Certainly there were times when it was not good to be in the market. I make fun of the bubble boy club because they are always bearish. I asked you to look specifically at my predictions and compare it to theirs. Instead you go back and cherry pick data to make gold look good. What a bunch of freaking crap. I have gotten very bullish when stocks got below 7800. I laughed at these idiots when they kept posting BS "How Low will it Go" saying a DOW of 4000 or 5000. Instead of recognizing a great buying oportunity, they are stuck in their doomsday predictions. Certainly for once in 30 years Gold has done well and that is great for people who were lucky enough to take advantage. But much of the anaylisis here is stuff for kooksville.

[sourcery]

Instead you go back and cherry pick data to make gold look good.

False. You established the base date for comparison as two years ago, not I. Had I wanted to cherry pick, I would have used early 2000 versus March 11, 2003.