Hockey Stick Slapped Climate change's Bellesiles?

NRO ^ | 3 Nov 03 | — Iain Murray

[.cnI redruM]

I've posted a similar argument before, but it's fun to see it taken up by professional media. Gun Control and Climate Change are both political issues where scientific analysis has been corrupted on behalf of special pleading. It's becoming so bad that you pretty much just tell the university or think tank what they are supposed to 'discover' and they then cook the data to produce your desired result. Noone buys science anymore, they just issue the grants to purchase results.

[Damocles]

A related thread was posted here.

This graph was available which shows the fraud in progress:

[Always Right]

So far, it looks like the errors in Mann's data set were accidental.

I need this guy to do my taxes.

[concerned about politics]

There is no global warming. It's facist land grab and business control propaganda.

[Xthe17th]

Thanks for my new tag line. SCARY!

[.cnI redruM]

That should go up on The Smoking Gun.com.

Mann is clearly singing for his supper and letting the man who pays the trubador call the tune.

[Eric in the Ozarks]

Correctamente

[Tacis]

I belive there is something to the concept of man raising the temperature of the atmoshpere. On a hot day, stand under some trees, stand on some grass, stand on a black-top road, and stand on a concrete parking lot.

The concrete reflects and amazing amount of heat back up while the trees absorb a lot of heat. As we replace trees with concrete we increase the heat reflected back upward and this warms the atmosphere. No?

[LS]

No. Try flying over the United States some time. Look down. How much of that "blacktop" do you see? You can't see any. It is infinitessimal as a % of world-wide surface area. If you honestly think this teeny, virtually unnoticable amount of blacktop is more powerful than, say, sun activity or volcanic activity, then I have property in Florida I want to sell you.

[LS]

No. Try flying over the United States some time. Look down. How much of that "blacktop" do you see? You can't see any. It is infinitessimal as a % of world-wide surface area. If you honestly think this teeny, virtually unnoticable amount of blacktop is more powerful than, say, sun activity or volcanic activity, then I have property in Florida I want to sell you.

[Smokin' Joe]

Political Science.

[r9etb]

They used the original source data to correct these errors, after which they concluded that "the particular 'hockey stick' shape . . . is primarily an artefact of poor data handling, obsolete data, and incorrect calculation of principal components."

Perhaps Messrs. M&M are being charitable here. It's possible that Michael Mann was deliberately lying.

[.cnI redruM]

Charity is a virtue, but there comes a time to call a lying sack of s--- by its proper name.

[.cnI redruM]

Charity is a virtue, but there comes a time to call a lying sack of s--- by its proper name.

[r9etb]

The concrete reflects and amazing amount of heat back up while the trees absorb a lot of heat. As we replace trees with concrete we increase the heat reflected back upward and this warms the atmosphere. No?

Well, sorta. The so-called "heat island" effect -- the absorption and retention of heat in the concrete and asphalt of cities -- is quite real. But it's local, not global.

[concerned about politics]

I belive there is something to the concept of man raising the temperature of the atmoshpere. On a hot day, stand under some trees, stand on some grass, stand on a black-top road, and stand on a concrete parking lot.

That's a joke, right? If you put your hand in a campfire, you'll find out that's really hot, too!
Ban campfires!

[r9etb]

Suggestion to you guys: engage your brains before engaging your mouths.

As a local phenomenon, the heat island effect of cities is real and well-documented.

It's unlikely that it has any global impact, but your silly political replies were unjustified and technically uninformed.

[lelio]

And you know what's not quite up front about that chart? It only goes back 500 years. That's like sending a freshman to the sea to measure the tides and after 2 hours he comes screaming back saying that the world's going to be under water in a day.

I'm not sure how you get temperatures from 500 years ago, but one needs to go back 5000 years before looking for trends in the weather.

[r9etb]

I'm not sure how you get temperatures from 500 years ago, but one needs to go back 5000 years before looking for trends in the weather.

One doesn't go back 500 years for temperatures, which is the root of the problem here. Instead, one uses proxies, such as tree rings, ice cores, and the like. These M&M fellows are saying that Mann's data are not properly correlated to actual temperatures.

Moreover, the dataset itself is not consistent, as it combines actual temperatures since ~1850, with the improperly correlated proxies. A more reasonable plot would show the proxies over the entire time-frame.

[Sloth]

It was constructed by calibrating many different proxies for temperature, such as tree-ring widths or measurements from ice deposits at the poles. It should also be noted that the blade of the hockey stick consists of actual temperature readings from thermometers, not the proxies

In other words, the graph is a lie.