Shock Poll in PA and More Intriguing News on Toss-Up States

RedState ^ | Oct, 31 | Nick Arama

[HereInTheHeartland]

Anyone have data on accurate these polls have been in past elections ?

[StAnDeliver]

"Exactly. If Kamala loses, her political life is totally finished. A victorious Trump will be a lame duck on Day One."

Not with a trifecta, Droop. But you do you, because no one else would want to, Ronlim...

[nfldgirl]

Good. Lessens the chances of the big steal.

[Political Junkie Too]

I just posted this in another thread:

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This poll has an interesting demographic model:

Party ID:

• Rep: 39%
• Dem: 35%
• Ind: 23%

Region:

• Philadelphia: 40%
• Pittsburgh: 22%
• Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon-York: 16%
• Wilkes Barre-Scranton-Hazleton: 11%

I didn't think that Pennsylvania voted like an R+4 state.

---

-PJ

[StAnDeliver]

Beshear's kid played 'semi-pro' baseball at the time of the pandemic. If you don't know what 'semi-pro' baseball is, it is where the best young baseballers in the county are herded into one team, and then travel regionally against other 'semi-pro' teams, to maintain their game in the off-season and build up scholarship opportunities.

At the height of the pandemic, when Beshear was behaving like a nazi - no church gatherings of any kind, including instructing state troopers to take down license plate numbers on Sunday churches meeting in defiance of his illegal crackdown - he got caught repeatedly not wearing a mask at his son's 'semi-pro' games.

Here is one of the pics, SMD and FU Lil' Andy. This ain't over.

And then after this pic was published on social media, the douchebag withdrew his son from his semi-pro team, banned any semi-pro games in Kentucky, and cried like a bitch to the MSM that he had been caught repeatedly violating his own mask mandates!

During Karamela's VP search, guess who sent this story to MattressBack's SuperPACs and the dark money groups? Just as Karamela was preparing to reject Shapiro, and it came down to Beshear and Elmer Fudd.

That unmasked pic cost him the VP slot.

In 2028, Beshear will be running a grocery store somewhere in rural Kentucky and not running for President.

Seriously, you people need to stop bringing your weak shit upon this website...

[Drew68]

Seriously, you people need to stop bringing your weak shit upon this website...

Fine. Name a single hypocritical Covid tyrant who was punished for it by the voters.

I'll wait.

[FreeReign]

A victorious Trump will be a lame duck on Day One.

America First won't be a lame duck.

[Beowulf9]

Oh! I thought you meant 84 votes.

I hope so!

[PermaRag]

“I didn’t think that Pennsylvania voted like an R+4 state.”

It doesn’t, not even close, all hopium polls aside.

The last time PA gave the GOP candidate 4% more than the national average (which is the exact definition of “R+4” in Charlie Cook’s parlance) was.... 1948.

So I guess they’re about due, or something like that.

Obviously in PA (R) voters do not outnumber (D) voters at ALL, nevermind by anything resembling as much as 4%.

So we’ll cover for that by claiming that they are adjusting for “expected turnout”, “Republican enthusiasm” or whatever. At which point this company may as well just make up numbers — so why just 4% then? (Because they want to sound at least semi-plausible.)

[Political Junkie Too]

I agree.

I also posted this at the other thread on this poll:

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I'm looking at county registrations.

This poll is made up of 40% Philadelphia residents. Philadelphia county registration is:

• Dem: 801,991
• Rep: 134,524
• Other: 169,758

Allegheny County (Pittsburgh, 22% of sample) has this registration:

• Dem: 525,826
• Rep: 274,048
• Other: 151,977

Dauphin County (Harrisburg) has this registration:

• Dem: 88,523
• Rep: 78,821
• Other: 36,313

Lancaster County (Lancaster) has this registration:

• Dem: 114,785
• Rep: 187,128
• Other: 64,091

The rest of the listed regions are small (like Harrisburg).

I don't understand how this poll can get a R+4 result when Philadelphia and Pittsburg make up 62% of the sample, and 919,245 more Democrats than Republicans.

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-PJ

[Drew68]

America First won't be a lame duck.

There's still going to be a robust and crowded GOP primary in 2028.

[FreeReign]

There's still going to be a robust and crowded GOP primary in 2028.

The effectual and successful candidates in the 2028 GOP primary will be American First.

[CarolinaReaganFan]

never heard of them
538 leftist Nate Silverberg isn’t trustworthy but good with stats.

[StAnDeliver]

"Fine. Name a single hypocritical Covid tyrant who was punished for it by the voters. I'll wait."

As Emperor Joseph II said to Mozart: "You are passionate, but you do not persuade..."

I just said I kept Brassiere off the goddamn Democrat ticket, who would have been a much bigger threat than Elmer Fudd. Do you thank me, droop? No. You go into your stale Ronlim act and stamp your feet.

As to how Brassiere won re-election? Undervotes. The Democrats combed Jefferson and Fayette for nursing homes, cemetaries, you name it, for voter names. And then absenteed shithead to victory while the entire downticket went to the GOP candidate by obscene margins that revealed the steal.

"There wasn't a larger spread than 25,500 in any other statewide absentee ballot.

Beshear's spread of absentee ballots was 72,883 over Cameron. Margin of all-votes: 67,174. They nailed it. Again.

Beshear lost the Election Day ballot, 499,542 to Cameron's 505,251.

Democrats are using AI + BigData to calculate exactly how many absentee ballots they need to generate, and how to disseminate them so it looks plausible."

[metmom]

Let us pray.

Constantly. All day.