Posted on 10/31/2024 2:19:04 PM PDT by kellymcneill
how can you people believe any news at all these days. I mean I am no rhodes scholar but I do have a memory and it reminds me, since when, after the fact, has any poll been been worth a red cent?...
I constantly see posts on polls and it boggles the mind...
92
1792
And Lake is up in Arizona:
🟥 Lake: 48.6% (+0.7)
🟦 Gallego: 47.9%
🟪 Other: 1.4%
And, latest polling (by Atlas Polling) shows Lake up by +1. Fox Polling had Gallego ahead by 13 points just four weeks ago and hasn’t done a Arizona Senate race poll since (that I can find). And we all know how Fox feels about Arizona. I’m surprised they haven’t yet called the race for Gallego.
I knew pollsters were trying to suppress Lake’s support and would have to start doing a little honest polling the final couple of days before the election so they could sell themselves as accurate in order to used again in the next election cycle.
Exactly. If Kamala loses, her political life is totally finished. A victorious Trump will be a lame duck on Day One.
2028 will be a clean slate for both parties, a fact that is not lost on either party, particularly a lot of Democrat pols who feel they were unjustly pushed out of the process and are bitter about it. (At least the GOP had an honest primary race, as lopsided as it turned out to be.)
Never mind the polls - we all need to show up and vote for Trump. We can’t count on others to get him elected for us. Anyone who can vote early, should - bank your vote for Trump now.
RE: post # 17
I hadn’t thought of that. You made an excellent point.
We need to assume that we will need to get every republican we can to the polls
The real question is how much cheating is going on.
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Yeah.... is he doing better than in 2020? Now would one know? I suspect there may be less cheating going on but only because there is more scrutiny....
I don’t see Shapiro cheating for her.
But all of the Dem activists in the cities? I can still see them cheating for their fellow Dems.
But on the other hand, are they more loyal to Shapiro? Or to the Dem party machine?
I’m being cautious because so many bear were yelling at the top of their lungs 30 seats in 2022 and we got 9. Credibility is suspect at this point.
I dig into the early voting data—and follow it where it leads.
I am neither optimistic or cautious.
I just crunch numbers.
Well, abortion was fresh during that cycle and both Harris and Trump weren’t on the ballot. We’ll see how things play out.
I haven’t seen much great polling for Harris from really, any polling outfit.
Could you do me a favor and ping me on your number crunching posts? I am interested in what you find.
Give the cheating stuff a rest. It is tiring and we really don’t need people out there saying “why even bother to vote”.
I think the gamblers on Polymarket would agree.
Pennsylvania has been the strongest gambler Swing State among PA-MI-WI since I started checking Polymarket a couple months ago.
Today, PA dropped below 60%-40% (to 59%-41%) for the first time in about one month, but still well in front of WI and MI.
Trump is now behind in MI: 54%-46% (Gambler odds)
All early voting does is to tell the democrat machines how many votes to manufacture for victory and dump late on election day.
I hope he wins and even by 44,000 like 2016 is cool with me. She’s the worst and must be defeated.
I just feel a 2022 vibe. But as long as he wins, I really don’t care by how much.
1984 was a epic landslide for Reagan
That’s a great point, actually
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