Posted on 11/04/2010 7:57:42 PM PDT by scrabblehack
‘Florida districts are now required by law to be compact’
If they actually do this, it means Ocala will no longer be in Corrine Brown’s gerrymandered 3rd CD. Hooray!
Well, I’m not sure about that. Corrine Brown’s district has to be majority black, so it’s going to look like a mess.
My guess is, though, they take it from Jacksonville to Tallahassee rather than Orlando. Ocala probably goes into Daniel Webster’s 24th, and a new 26th district is carved in Orlando for the Democrats.
Florida +2 instead of +1
Texas +4 instead of +3
Missouri -1 instead of 0
New York -2 instead of -1
I’d say a new seat for Central Florida and a new seat for South Florida.
Texas - Metro Dallas at least +1
Metro Houston at least +1
Austin-San Antonio +1
The 4th seat — several things could happen. I’d guess the 17th might get split (newly elected Bill Flores is from the south end of the district, so the new seat would be exurban Dallas).
Missouri and New York require further study.
Texas will be as follows:
+1 Dem seat in Dallas
+1 GOP seat in Houston
+1 GOP seat in exurban Dallas
+1 swingy seat in south Texas
New York: There will be 2 seats for Suffolk County, as now, with 70K left over. There will be no more than one full seat for Nassau County. So I’d say there will be a Peter King-Carolyn McCarthy (likely) or Peter King-Gary Ackerman matchup.
Also one seat lost upstate — same analysis as before.
Missouri: St. Louis County loses 0.31 seats, St. Louis City 0.08; R’s control the legislature with a Dem governor. Carnahan (D) in the 3rd narrowly won, Clay (D) is safe. It could be Akin in the 2nd vs. Carnahan in the 3rd; Emerson (R) in the 8th is from Cape Girardeau; surely if you stretch the 3rd that far, Carnahan loses. Luetkemeyer in St. Elizabeth is out even further.
Other possibility: Jackson County loses 0.11 seats. It could take in Harrisonburg, home to freshman Vicki Hartzler. Cleaver and Hartzler won by small margins.
Unlikely. Peter King is the homeland security chairman. Albany Democrats aren’t going to put him in danger.
2 Republicans upstate will be thrown together, and 2 Democrats in NYC will be thrown together. Thankfully there are no NYC Republicans except the 1 seat in Staten Island which can’t go anywhere.
Well after all, he can always run for senate, when is Nelson up?
Bill Nelson is up in 2012. That said, I’m pretty sure Connie Mack will run for and win that seat.
Overall, the proposition in Florida will probably cost us 3 seats:
1 new one in Orlando
Allen West’s seat in Palm Beach
Bill Young’s seat in Pinellas County
Young might hold his seat, but he’s 80 and will retire soon. The Democrats will get these 3 plus their existing 6, so 9 seats to 18.
Well the taxans have one more seat than they expected to get. I’m assuming that still means R+3 and D+1?
I believe so, yeah.
The problem is carving a seat between San Antonio and the border is tricky. It however can be done.
Hopefully somebody in the TX GOP will find some candidates solid candidates, hopefully some with spanish surnames, to field as candidates. If they’ve got some military service then so much the better.
If they did the districts without gerrymandering I assume this would at least mean more competitive districts, so conceivably the GOP could pick up a few seats in California?
Conceivably but as I say AZ’s seats were drawn by a commission last time out, and they look as bad as any legislature would produce.
Conceivably but as I say AZ’s seats were drawn by a commission last time out, and they look as bad as any legislature would produce.
Will the GOP in Utah be able to redistrict the liberal Salt Lake seat out of existence? It would be nice to have 4 conservatives there.
I doubt it. Jim Matheson keeps winning regardless of how many Republicans they put in his district. Most likely his district isn’t changed much and we wait for him to retire or run for Senate.
What a shame; there must be a fair amount of stupid people in the district. I assume the additional district will lean toward the GOP? But is there a Reagan Republican available or will a half asser get the job.
*placemarker bump*
Nah, its more that Matheson has the brand name.
To put in in perspective, there are more Republicans in Matheson’s district than John Boehner’s.
I should have covered these others where one party controls the governor’s chair and the legislature:
R:
AL 6-1 D all seats safe
ME 2-0 D There will still be a rural seat and a metro Portland seat.
OK 4-1 R Boren is safe
TN 7-2 R all likely safe
WI 5-3 R; Kind won by only 50-47 but there is no large urban area which if transferred to another district would flip the seat.
D:
AR 3-1 R. All probably safe.
WV: 2-1 R. McKinley barely won in the north but there are no reliably Democrat areas in the central, so this seat is in good shape. Capito carried every county in the central.
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