Posted on 09/17/2025 2:00:26 PM PDT by CIB-173RDABN
That’s why it’s important for China to remove the will to respond to an invasion by bribing as many politicians as possible.
CAN China invade Taiwan? Yes.
Can China conquer Taiwan? Nope. With the US and our allies stepping in China would be VERY hard pressed to maintain any foothold.
Of course the climate fascists would demand that we not sink any Chinese ships because that would pollute the oceans...
I think the author is estimating on the future based on past wars. I suspect China will salami slice bully its way to victory. A tiny thing here and there until it has the prize subjugated without a fight. How would that work? They could surround Taiwan and stop all inputs. They won’t fire a shot. There will be a lot of ramming and bullying. The other thing they’ll do is threaten and possibly set off a few nukes. Nothing serious, just enough intimidation to frighten the next Obama or Biden. Notice how Putin’s blustering slowed down assistance to Ukraine.
Another thing. The CCP are nasty, horrible people. The West tries to deal with them like they’re honorable. The West is clueless. They’d happily kill us all in a heartbeat if they thought it would keep them safe and in power.
On the good side. (Sort of.) China is on the verge of financial collapse. Now they could go full Argentina and invade to take everyone’s mind off the miserable situation at home. Or they might suddenly be unable to pay the PLA and PLAN (People’s Liberation Army/Navy.) and the whole military dissolves overnight. China would become multiple warlord states with nuclear weapons. In this case they’d be fighting each other. Expect a lot of dams to get blown. Because they’re nasty.
The Chinese PLA has another problem. Almost the entire leadership of the PLA has been killed retired fired or demoted.
A major decapitation of the PLA has happened within the last year because of factional fighting within the CPC. Xi faction did all the decapitating for awhile. Then all his opponents in the CPC did all the decapitating.
The remaining leaders of the PLA are against an invasion of Taiwan. They’re in control of Beijing and not the CPC.
So they wait until the US Is out of the picture.
It's possible they will do it, but less likely than some people think. Also, they will likely be a lot worse at it than people think.
Just wait for the next Dem president and set up a blockade. Quislings in Taiwan (and DC) would call for surrender.
China will conquer Taiwan because *everyone* knows that the West won’t lend effective aid and that Chinese officials will accept *any* number of casualties and *any* amount of damage. And that means deaths in Taiwan *or* China and damage in Taiwan *or* China.
Vanity, right?
How long have you been focusing on the China-Taiwan tension/potential conflict?
So they wait until the US Is out of the picture.
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The United States is just one part. Even if the US did not get involve, they would still be facing every other nation in the region. The main threat to China would be their shipping would not be allowed passage through other nation’s water and 80% of their energy is imported by ships.
There is no telling what China will do, but they have a lot of obstacles to over come before they even land one soldier on the beach.
I would not underestimate the Chinese or over estimate America’s capability.
America seems to be constantly at war either externally or internally, so we are very practiced at it.
China, a very homogenized people doesn’t have a clue.
They have no idea what other people think or how they react.
Americans do.
We have to deal with extreme diversity every day.
The other nations in the region are like Europe. Won’t work together and do the right thing because uncle sugar is out there.
They think in terms of decades. When China invades Taiwan, they will arrive at Taipei Airport, and walk out on a red carpet and shake the hands of the local leader.
Taiwan is prepared and I doubt China could win over Taiwan even without much help.
It would be long and bloody but Taiwan is far more prepared than almost any other country on earth.
People need to study maps to see what the issue is. China may be large but they have a weak navy and could be squeezed if they tried to invade. Like you already said, they would lose almost all imports immediately.
Getting across the strait would be bloody and Taiwan has all kinds of plans for this.
“It would be long and bloody but Taiwan is far more prepared than almost any other country on earth.”
That’s the thing about starting a war. The enemy has a vote. Putin was stunned at how badly his military performed and how well the much smaller and less prepared Ukrainian military and people performed. I suspect:
If Taiwan hasn’t already deployed remote controlled mines, they will at a moment’s notice. I suspect they have taken notes and are building some of the most advanced drones the world has yet to see. And I’m sure they’ve taken note that China is FULL of Achilles Heels. By that I mean literally thousands of very shaky and old dams. Taiwan could start knocking them out a six pack at a time until China screams stop.
“China lacks the amphibious lift capacity, logistics, and sustained air superiority required to make such an operation successful.”
Mainland China’s air force holds a significant numerical and qualitative advantage over Taiwan’s air force, which is equipped with modern, but fewer, aircraft like the F-16V. China possesses more than twice the number of fighter aircraft and a greater variety of strategic aircraft, including bombers, which Taiwan lacks. While Taiwan’s F-16Vs are advanced and can match or exceed some Chinese aircraft in certain aspects like speed, they are significantly outnumbered and Taiwan’s strategy focuses on air denial rather than achieving air superiority.
Mainland China’s amphibious forces include highly modernized People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Army Amphibious Combined Arms Brigades (ACABs), designed for large-scale island invasion campaigns, and the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), which operates advanced amphibious assault ships like the Type 075 and new Type 076, and has developed specialized D-Day-style floating piers (barges) to enhance landing capabilities. These forces are undergoing rapid upgrades to support joint island landing campaigns, primarily in the context of a potential invasion of Taiwan.
PLA Army Amphibious Forces:
Amphibious Combined Arms Brigades (ACABs): These brigades are the primary assault force for landing campaigns.
Modernization: The PLA has significantly restructured its amphibious units since 2017, forming ACABs to focus on using high-speed amphibious vehicles and integrated combined arms in littoral environments.
Support Elements: For a cross-strait invasion, these brigades would likely receive support from other elements of their group armies, including fire support, air defense, and electronic warfare.
PLAN Amphibious Forces
Type 075 Landing Helicopter Docks (LHDs):
The PLAN operates a fleet of these highly capable amphibious assault ships.
Type 076 Amphibious Assault Ship:
A new, more advanced class of ship launched in late 2024, the “Sichuan” is larger and includes a catapult system for launching fixed-wing aircraft, resembling a “light aircraft carrier”.
Specialized Barges:
China has built unique floating barges with long road spans and “jack-up” pillars designed to act as piers for unloading trucks and tanks from cargo ships directly onto a coastline.
“Despite its size, China is in a weak strategic position. It is surrounded by nations that are either neutral or hostile. “
Taiwan has no formal treaty commitments from any of China’s neighbors to aid Taiwan in defense against China.
“Bottom line: If China initiates war, it starts a clock on how long it can survive without fuel, food, or exports.”
The “bottom line” is how long Taiwan can hold out and meanwhile who really will aid them and how soon. If everything is over quickly, will U.S., Japan and others try to block trade by sea with China?? THAT’s the “bottom line”.
” Invading Taiwan would trigger a coalition of regional powers, U.S. intervention, and an almost immediate economic blockade.”
That is the really only important comment, but it rightly belongs in the form of a question - “will” a regional coalition of U.S., Japan and others lay out an immediate economic blockade?
The one statement western leaders need to make is:
The independence of Taiwan is 100% a political question and only of greatest importance to the CCP, not a question that threatens the national security of China nor of who China is. The CCP wants to complete what it could not obtain for itself, not China, in 1949. A complete modern China can exist peacefully in the world without CCP control of Taiwan.
A modern multiparty democratic China and Taiwan would have resolved political differences decades ago. But we do not have a modern multiparty democracy in China. The main stumbling block is the CCP and its political need to extend its dictatorship to Taiwan. Taiwan does not need that, the people of China do not need that, only the CCP insists on it, for itself.
Well researched and written.
80 percent of China’s petroleum (gas, oil and especially petrochemicals like fertilizer) comes from the Middle East.
All of the Russia pipelines being proposed are just that—proposals. Those pipelines have to be built in some of the most inhospitable places on Earth—vast deserts, massive mountain ranges and millions of acres of Taiga Forest and tundra. I believe the Sakhalin Island pipeline is almost finished, but it is the most exposed pipeline proposed to Naval forces (Japan and USA).
Chinese oil from the Middle East would be stopped up with the US Navy being the cork.
That’s even without fighting in the East or South China seas. All the action would be in the Northwestern Indian Ocean.
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