These Six Drivers Are Gone, And That's Why The Global Economy Is Toast

Of Two Minds ^ | 08/12/2024 | Charles Hughes Smith

[fretzer]

>There were some good ideas in the Xerox Star and Doug Englebart created the mouse, but it was a LONG ways from that idea to a commercial success.

I disagree. On the Alto, Dandilion, Star etc, they had text document preparation tools, graphics design tools, simulation tools, VLSI design environments, etc all networked together via an early ethernet technology. This was in the late ‘70’s to early ‘80s. I was there and I saw it. Unfortunately, they didn’t have the vision to capitalize on their creations.

[unlearner]

“Here are the six one-offs that won’t be coming back:
...
6) Tech productivity boom.”

Wrong. Wrong. Wrong.

AI, machine learning, and robotics are already producing massive productivity gains for millions. This will only grow.

The author fears a net loss due to these technologies taking the jobs of the workers they replace.

These technologies must be trained by humans to be useful. Everyone will be able to own robots and have inexpensive access to AI. These will allow people to be more productive.

Wealth is not merely being redistributed. It is being created by increased efficiency, productivity, and innovation.

A rising tide lifts all of the boats. Look how technology has benefitted the whole world economically, even if leftists and globalists (of all political leanings) squander a lot of these gains through central planning and government waste.

[cgbg]

It is a race between a technological utopia and dystopia.

Imho dystopia is winning that race.

[House Atreides]

“It also isn’t like we can just start up a factory in the U.S. overnight.Heck, who is going to run it?”
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Let’s start by NOT BEING DEFEATIST! Tariffs don’t turn economies on a dime.... but they do turn economies with some lag time.

[Rockingham]

Here are six plausible or at least possible innovations that could start a new wave of prosperity on a global scale:

(1) Reliable, on demand quantum computing that leads to advances in medicine, materials, and fundamental science.

(2) Abundant cheap energy based on nuclear power, probably fusion in some form, perhaps even so-called cold fusion.

(3) Safe, self-driving cars and trucks.

(4) Medical advances such as cures for cancer, chronic ailments, the diseases of aging, and a near halt to aging itself for extra decades of healthy, productive life.

(5) Robotics combined with AI to carry out routine labor tasks on farms, factories, and in business and at home.

(6) Propulsion based on antigravity or electromagnetic force that does not a require propellant mass. This could make interplanetary travel relatively quick and safe.