Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine (2 year anniversary)

ORYX ^ | Since February 24, 2022 and daily | ORYX

[blitz128]

A bit hyperbolic dont you think😂

[blitz128]

🍈selective editing per usual, post the whole quote do you work for pmsdnc🤔😂🤡

[dennisw]

+++++++

[AdmSmith]

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 8, 2025

Kremlin officials are reportedly demanding that Ukraine cede to Russia strategically vital unoccupied territory in Donetsk Oblast and freeze the frontline in other areas as part of a ceasefire agreement. Unnamed sources told Bloomberg on August 8 that Russian President Vladimir Putin demanded that Ukraine cede the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, along with Crimea, as part of ceasefire negotiations.[1] Bloomberg reported that this demand would require Ukraine to withdraw troops from Ukrainian-controlled territory in Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts that Russian forces have been trying and failing to capture since February 2022, after having failed to take it during Russia's initial invasion of Ukraine in 2014. Bloomberg reported that the terms stipulate that Russian forces would also halt offensives in Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts while Ukraine and Russia negotiate a ceasefire and subsequent peace deal. Bloomberg reported that it is not clear whether Russia is willing to give up any land that it currently occupies, and US sources indicated that Ukraine and European allies still need to approve the deal. The Wall Street Journal similarly reported on August 8 that European and Ukrainian officials briefed by the Trump Administration stated that it was unclear whether Putin intended to freeze the current front lines in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts or eventually pull out of those regions entirely.[2]

The reported settlement notably does not include any mention of a Russian withdrawal from the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) or from positions in Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, and Mykolaiv oblasts. Two European officials told the Wall Street Journal that US Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff stated that the Russian proposal included two phases: the first in which Ukraine would withdraw from Donetsk Oblast and Russia and Ukraine would freeze the frontline, followed by a second phase in which Putin and US President Donald Trump would agree on a peace plan that they would later negotiate with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The Wall Street Journal reported that a Ukrainian official who participated in a call with Trump on Wednesday said that Ukraine was not opposed to any proposals in principle, but that a ceasefire would be a prerequisite to any further steps. Trump stated at a press conference on August 8 that “there will be some swapping of territories to the betterment of both,“ but did not provide further details and noted that there will be no further announcements until August 9 or a later date.[3] US President Donald Trump and Russian Presidential Aide Yuriy Ushakov announced on August 8 that Trump and Putin will meet in Alaska on August 15 and discuss options for long-term peace in Ukraine.[4]

Putin may be offering this proposal in an attempt to delay the sanctions that Trump threatened to impose by August 8 if Putin did not begin to negotiate with Ukraine to end the war.[5] Putin's proposal demands the surrender of Ukrainian-held territory before a ceasefire, a sequence at odds with Trump's and Zelensky’s stipulation that a ceasefire must precede any peace negotiations.[6] US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on August 6 that a ceasefire is an important part of the negotiation process because it is difficult to negotiate a permanent peace deal while under fire — reiterating Trump's preferred timeline of establishing a ceasefire in Ukraine before starting formal peace negotiations to end the war.[7] The Wall Street Journal noted that European and Ukrainian officials worry that Putin is simply using the offer as a ploy to avoid new US sanctions while continuing the war.[8] Putin is likely deliberately offering a proposal designed to be unacceptable to Ukraine in order to delay sanctions as well as meaningful ceasefire negotiations and place the blame for the failure of negotiations on Ukraine.

The surrender of the rest of Donetsk Oblast as the prerequisite of a ceasefire with no commitment to a final peace settlement ending the war would position Russian forces extremely well to renew their attacks on much more favorable terms, having avoided a long and bloody struggle for the ground. Conceding such a demand would force Ukraine to abandon its “fortress belt,” the main fortified defensive line in Donetsk Oblast since 2014 — with no guarantee that fighting will not resume. Ukraine's fortress belt has served as a major obstacle to the Kremlin's territorial ambitions in Ukraine over the last 11 years. The fortress belt is made up of four large cities and several towns and settlements that run north to south along the H-20 Kostyantynivka-Slovyansk highway, with a total pre-war population of over 380,537 people.[9] The line is 50 kilometers long (roughly 31 miles, about the distance between Washington, D.C. and Baltimore, Maryland). Slovyansk and Kramatorsk form the northern half of the fortress belt and serve as significant logistics hubs for Ukrainian forces defending in Donetsk Oblast. Kramatorsk currently serves as Donetsk Oblast’s provisional administrative center (because Russian forces occupy the regional center of Donetsk City) and is a major industrial city.[10] Druzhkivka, Oleksiyevo-Druzhkivka, and Kostyantynivka serve as the southern half of the fortress belt. Ukrainian forces first began building up defensive positions in and around these cities after retaking them from pro-Russian proxy forces who attacked and seized Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Kostyantynivka in April 2014.[11] Ukrainian forces have maintained control of these cities since July 2014.[12] Ukraine has spent the last 11 years pouring time, money, and effort into reinforcing the fortress belt and establishing significant defense industrial and defensive infrastructure in and around these cities.

Putin's reported proposal once again underscores that he maintains his uncompromising demands for Ukraine's capitulation and remains disinterested in good-faith negotiations. Putin stated on August 1 that the conditions laid out in his June 2024 speech “certainly” remain the same.[25] Putin demanded in June 2024 that any peace agreement must address the “root causes” of the war and provide for Ukraine's demilitarization, denazification, and alliance neutrality. Putin effectively demanded the removal of the current legitimate Ukrainian government and the establishment of a pro-Russian proxy government in Kyiv.[26] Putin has since consistently demanded that Ukraine concede all of Donbas and “Novorossiya,” referring to occupied and non-occupied parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts as a prerequisite for any sort of negotiations with Ukraine.[27] Kremlin officials often invoke the term “Novorossiya” — an amorphous invented region in Ukraine — as an “integral” part of Russia in order to lay claims to territory beyond the four partially occupied oblasts and include all of southern and eastern Ukraine, including Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Odesa Oblasts.[28] Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov previously stated that there are “no secrets” about Russia's demands and reiterated the importance of addressing the “root causes” of the war in a future peace agreement.[29] Putin stated on August 7, following his meeting with Witkoff, that, while not opposed to meeting with Zelensky, certain conditions must be “created” before Putin will meet with Zelensky, and that these conditions are still far away.[30] Putin's efforts to posture himself as amenable to US peace proposals and meaningful negotiations while continuing to make the same demands and refusing to make any concessions are attempts to obfuscate the fact that Putin himself remains uninterested in ending his war on terms short of full victory. Putin and other Kremlin officials have also intentionally cultivated Russian society's commitment to Putin's stated war aims and have not set conditions to take any off-ramps to accept a peace settlement that falls short — in contradiction with Putin's claims that he is interested in peace.[31]

The Kremlin does not appear to be setting the domestic information conditions necessary for the Russian people to accept a settlement short of full victory in Ukraine. Several Russian federal newswires amplified Bloomberg’s reporting of the proposal with no additional commentary, but contextualized Putin's proposal by repeating Putin's 2024 demand that Russia gain control of Luhansk, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Kherson oblasts as a precondition to any ceasefire.[32] The Russian federal newswires’ messaging indicates that the Kremlin's domestic narrative about the resolution of the was has not changed. Other Russian state media outlets reported limited details of the ceasefire proposal and heavily emphasized that the deal may change before a final settlement.[33] A Russian outlet added an observation that “only Putin would dictate the terms of peace” when discussing the ceasefire proposal, likely to condition the Russian domestic audience to believe that Russia is the sole decider of the war's outcome.[34] Another Russian outlet simply stated that the proposal may freeze the frontline in Ukraine and did not discuss the possibility of Russia halting its offensives in Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts or Ukraine ceding Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts to Russia.[35] State Duma Defense Committee First Deputy Chairperson Alexei Zhuravlev stated that Putin is ”capable of outplaying any of the currently living politicians,” insinuating that Putin is not entering these negotiations in good faith and is superior to Trump.[36] A Russian US political expert assessed that Putin and Trump will only be able to reach a temporary agreement and noted that the agreement will only concern the Trump administration.[37] Russian public officials and unofficial messaging does not communicate any changes in the ongoing Kremlin line, insinuating that Putin is not preparing for any meaningful concessions. The lack of change in public Kremlin messaging, in combination with ongoing speculation that Putin is looking to “outplay” the West, signifies that Putin himself likely does not see his reported proposal as a concession and likely retains territorial aspirations beyond Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-8-2025