[SpeedyInTexas]

Ukrainian Tank losses Running Total: 737

Ukrainian Artillery losses Running Total: 458

RuZZian Tank losses Running Total: 2666
January 2024 – 86
December 2023 – 74
November 2023 – 67
October 2023 – 108
September 2023 – 57
August 2023 – 86
July 2023 – 113
June 2023 – 73
May 2023 – 90
April 2023 – 5
March 2023 - 127
February 2023 – 118
January 2023 – 61
December 2022 – 76
November 2022 – 105
October 2022 – 212
September 2022 - 217
August 2022 – 74
July 2022 – 108
June 2022 – 67
May 2022 – 148
April 2022 – 243
Feb 24 - March 2022 – 350

RuZZian Artillery losses Running Total: 1003
January 2024 - 32
December 2023 - 33
November 2023 - 25
October 2023 - 77
September 2023 - 48
August 2023 - 67
July 2023 - 56
June 2023 - 47
May 2023 - 43
April 2023 - 24
March 2023 - 37
February 2023 – 41
January 2023 – 31
December 2022 – 19
November 2022 – 55
October 2022 – 64
September 2022 - 73
August 2022 – 21
July 2022 – 21
June 2022 – 18
May 2022 – 20
April 2022 – 52
Feb 24 - March 2022 – 110

[BeauBo]

Communist Chinese economy hitting the rocks - Evergrande declared insolvent, and emergency measures underway to shore up the stock market and currency.

Seeking Alpha reports: China stocks end at five-year low as rescue bets fade amid macro concerns.

“The selloff in mainland Chinese stocks continued on Wednesday, with the benchmark CSI 300 index (SHSZ300) closing down 0.9% at a five-year low of 3,215.35, as weak manufacturing data renewed concerns over the economy.”

Reuters reports: State-backed ‘national team’ of investors piles in to support China stocks

“A rescue operation is underway in China’s equity markets with large and unusual flows into blue-chip funds suggesting a plunge by state-backed investors... analysts say the purchasing pattern points to the so-called “national team” of state-backed investors, several of whom have said recently they have turned buyers...

...Goldman Sachs defines the “national team” as government-related entities that hold domestic equities on behalf of the state. It formed in response to a market crash in 2015 and includes investors such as Central Huijin and the China Securities Finance Corp.

Analysts expect state-sanctioned stock buying can only do so much and fundamental problems such as oversupply and a lack of confidence in property ownership must be rectified to improve things.”

Reuters reports: China’s Major State Banks Defend Yuan as Stock Markets Slide

“China’s major state-owned banks were heavy sellers of dollars on Wednesday, three people with direct knowledge of their activity said, steadying the yuan as it came under pressure in currency trade as the economy remains shaky.

State banks often act on behalf of China’s central bank in the foreign exchange market...

...The state bank actions come as the yuan faces renewed downside pressure from foreigners’ rush out of China’s sinking equity markets and a globally resurgent U.S. dollar...

...Investors are gloomy about China’s growth prospects, frustrated at the lack of a large-scale rescue for the embattled property sector and exhausted by several years of underperformance.”

[BeauBo]

Kyiv Independent reports: House Speaker Johnson says Ukraine aid, border deal likely to be split

“Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Mike Johnson, reportedly told the three leaders of Baltic parliaments that President Biden’s national security proposal that combines aid for Ukraine with border policy reform would likely be split up.

The decision, Johnson stated, would ultimately come down to the border language in the bill presented by Senate negotiators.”

[BeauBo]

Sweden and France will increase their cooperation in the fielding of anti-tank and anti-air capabilities, as part of a new strategic agreement signed this week, which will involve their defense giants Saab and MBDA.

[BeauBo]

AFP (French) reports: Europe Must Get ‘Organised’ in Case US Cuts Kyiv Aid: Macron

“French President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday called on European countries to back Ukraine “over the long term” and get ready in case Washington decides to stop supporting the war-torn country...

...”We must organise ourselves in such a way that if the United States were to make a sovereign choice to stop or reduce this aid, it should have no impact on the ground”, he told reporters in Stockholm, alongside Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson.

“We Europeans must continue to support the Ukrainian people,” Macron said, stressing that Ukraine was a European country.

“This is first and foremost our problem,” he added.

“We have a strategic objective: Russia cannot win.”

...France is working on a new bilateral security agreement with Ukraine — along the lines of a pact agreed between Kyiv and London — that would be announced during Macron’s trip to Kyiv next month.”

[BeauBo]

More sanctions to commemorate the anniversary.

(Reuters) - The European Commission will start informal high-level meetings with member states on Saturday on the details of a proposed new set of sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, three diplomatic sources said on Wednesday.

The EU is keen to put a 13th package of measures together to mark the second anniversary of the war on Feb. 24.

The discussions that begin on Saturday are a final step before the Commission officially delivers a new package to be debated and voted on by EU countries in the Council.

The proposal is expected to focus on closing more loopholes on circumvention, especially for items that can be used on the battlefield, as well as a number of new listings on individuals and entities. One source added that some minor sectoral measures such as new import bans were also likely.”

[BeauBo]

Orban on the hot seat tomorrow.

“EU leaders will grapple with Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban at a crunch summit meeting Thursday (1 Feb) to try to overcome his veto on 50 billion euros in financial aid for Ukraine.” (AFP reported)

[BeauBo]

ISW reports (31 Jan):

“The European Union (EU) will reportedly fall short of its promise to provide Ukraine with one million artillery shells by March 1, 2024, as European leaders call on EU member states to intensify deliveries of ammunition to Ukraine.

Bloomberg reported on January 31 that Western diplomats stated that EU partners will only deliver 600,000 artillery shells to Ukraine by the March 1, 2024 deadline.

European Union (EU) Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton stated on January 20 that the EU will have the capacity to produce one million shells per year by March or April 2024 and will ensure that it delivers the “majority” of the shells to Ukraine.”

[PIF]

Kremlin snuff box
https://t.me/s/kremlin_secrets

Why are Indians better than Russians? Or why the demand for migrants is growing in Russia

Colleagues from Kommersant published an interesting text about how Russian companies are increasingly turning to recruitment agencies with the task of finding migrant workers from countries with “inexpensive labor” - India, Pakistan and North Korea.

At the same time, in the text the authors note that, in general, such employees are mainly suitable for unskilled work, they do not know the language and cost the same as local residents, but in the long run this approach justifies itself. Primarily due to the low probability of a situation where a foreign employee leaves for another job.

In reality, the situation looks like this: Russians, although not all of them, are registered with the military, which means that at any moment they can be mobilized to participate in the military military service. It is also obvious that Russians can still move around the country more easily and they do not have a language barrier.

Another argument is that hypothetical Indians or Koreans can be brought in illegally without documents, and then simply blackmailed with deportation. Yes, it looks like slavery , but North Korea is actively selling its citizens to work abroad.

And Russia, together with China, is a leader in attracting such employees. Mostly we are talking about construction or mining.

It is important to emphasize that the usual flow of migrants from Central Asia has now stopped. Many immigrants from Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and other allied countries are in no hurry to obtain Russian citizenship, as was previously the case.

Also, according to rumors from the Foreign Ministry, the authorities of these countries are cautiously not advising their citizens to go to Russia, fearing that they may end up in war.

At the same time, it is obvious that the return of all migrants to these republics will create a social catastrophe there - millions of citizens will return to countries where there is no decent work for them, millions of families will be left without means of subsistence.

Thus, an interesting moment has arisen in the labor market - migrants from Central Asia are looking for alternative options, and company owners are already thinking about who will work in the lowest paid positions.

Meanwhile, the authorities of our country boast about record low rates of unemployment, forgetting that these rates are ensured primarily by sending hundreds of thousands of men from cities, villages and towns throughout the country to war.

[PIF]

Pentagon considering some form of takeover of the Starship program - sort of a rental agreement. SpaceX has not public confirmed this, but could be very lucrative for them.

[blitz128]

Great patriotic war part 2? I’m not so much
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=HJHkhEkV30Q

[PIF]

Reporting From Ukraine:
Note: other versions of this report are found elsewhere on FR, but this is guaranteed to be the complete transcript - unlike the others.
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU

[ Ukrainians Conduct a Successful Counter Attack. Russian Gains Reduced to Zero ]

==
Day 709: Feb 02

Today, there are a lot of updates about the battle near Vuhledar.

But first of all, more information became available about the combined strike on Crimea. Russian sources reported that Ukrainians tricked the Russian air defense system by first launching decoy rockets. Once the Russian air defense started shooting them down and revealed their positions, Ukrainians launched anti-radar HARM rockets.

These rockets are designed to pick up signals from working radars and destroy them, so Russians basically had to either switch the radars off or take a risk and try to intercept these rockets before they destroy the radars.

For Ukrainians, it did not matter what Russians decided to do - the air defense was busy, creating a perfect opportunity to launch Storm Shadow missiles.

Ukrainian Air Force Spokesman stated that based on the eulogies of Russian soldiers and other reports, at least 3 aircraft and 2 facilities with personnel were destroyed, including Russian General Oleksandr Tatarenko. Moreover, Ukrainians conducted a simultaneous marine drone strike on the Russian Fleet.

As a result, 3 drones successfully hit a Russian missile carrier, which promptly went to the bottom of the sea. Such a massive and successful combined strike caused huge discontent in the Russian media space.

Russian analysts criticized the overpraised S-400 air defense systems that were supposed to create an Iron Dome above Crimea and the continuous failure to protect the radars as well as military objects.

Another point of concern for the Russian analysts became the disastrous Russian offensive operation near Vuhledar. Vuhledar became notorious a long time ago, because multiple Russian brigades were completely annihilated here, achieving zero territorial gains.

In the most recent offensive operation, Russian forces tried to implement a new plan and bypass Vuhledar from the north. In order to achieve this goal, the main target became Novomykhailivka.

The operation started from demining the fields and attacking Ukrainian strongpoints around the settlement. At first, Russian forces managed to achieve some success on the southern flank, and the main reason for such a big jump was the lack of strongpoints.

As you can see, there is a small river going through the settlements, creating several lines of swamps between the fields. Ukrainians had a series of small unit-size defenses in the tree lines, however, the main defense belt was located right in front of the village - more precisely, 2 farms, a cemetery, and main road intersections.

By leveraging 3 settlements under their control, Russian forces were launching one mechanized attack after another from all sides, forcing Ukrainians to withdraw to the main defense belt. Russian sources reported that the battle for Novomykhailivka had started as Russians reached the outskirts.

Since Russian forces on the northern flank were substantially lagging behind, the only way to collapse Ukrainian defense was by penetrating the settlement from the south and cutting off supplies.

Geolocated footage showed that Russians managed to take control of several strongpoints and get a foothold, and started preparing to storm the settlement.

Despite devastating shelling and the use of heavy thermobaric systems, Russians failed to undermine the Ukrainian defense, and Russian forces on the outskirts were slowly killed.

Once the garrison was liquidated, Ukrainian fighters from the 79th AirMobile Brigade conducted a powerful second wave of counterattacks and pushed the front line back by more than 2 kilometers, forcing Russians to start the whole operation from scratch.

The only positions that Russians managed to maintain were south of the swamp. Russian forces decided to leverage the natural obstacle in the form of the swamp as a shield against possible Ukrainian flank attacks and expand westward.

Russians created a powerful assault unit consisting of 4 tanks, 10 armored fighting vehicles, and around 150 soldiers and launched an attack. Unfortunately for Russians, Ukrainians ambushed the column with drones.

Geolocated footage shows that Russian forces sustained about a company’s worth of heavy armored vehicle losses during assaults in the area. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that only in this attack Russian forces lost 2 tanks and 7 armored fighting vehicles.

The disastrous operations in the south led to harsh criticisms of the Russian military command for failing to account for the drone factor when planning tactical assaults.

Other analysts noted that Ukrainian minefields are canalizing Russian routes, however, they still claimed that consistent high equipment losses show the ineptitude of the Russian military command.

Reporting From Ukraine will be on Monday, Wednesday, Friday, and Sunday.

[PIF]

Kremlin snuff box
https://t.me/s/kremlin_secrets

Russians are afraid of the demobilization of SVO participants from the army. Important polling data is being hidden from Putin

The story of the demobilization of the SVO participants takes an unexpected turn. We have repeatedly written that the President wants to carry out partial demobilization before the elections and send home from 10 to 20 thousand military personnel who were mobilized to participate in hostilities. The generals are against it. They present their arguments, not always convincing, but they exist.

Vladimir Vladimirovich wants to hear the voice of the people - that the people support him, and are also “for” demobilization. Attempts to publicly declare the need for demobilization have already been made by the wives and relatives of the mobilized, but without a large scale it is difficult to notice them.

Therefore, in order to find out the real mood of Russians, they conducted a special opinion poll. We surveyed 2.5 thousand of our citizens. And the results, it must be admitted, exceeded all expectations.

Statistics showed that the majority of Russians (84%) support the demobilization of soldiers from the front. At the same time, very few (only 8%) agree that they or their loved ones take the vacant positions at the front.

Further more, more than half of those surveyed (59%) admitted that they fear the return of military personnel from the front, and 65% of survey participants even expect the crime situation in their cities and towns to worsen after demobilization.

The operators, by the way, noted that some of the respondents by the end of the conversation were not so sure of the need for demobilization.

It is curious that the results of these polls do not yet show Vladimir Putin. Sergei Shoigu knows about them and really wants to get them at his disposal.

The fact is that the results of these opinion polls give the military another argument against demobilization - the military should not be allowed to go home, so as not to provoke an increase in criminality in the rear.

Of course, logic can be found in such arguments. But all this is somehow inhumane...

—
Upshot: once mobilized and sent to the front, you can never return home ... alive.

[PIF]

SpaceX
Boca Chica site is in jeopardy now that the state appeals court has ruled that various enviro wacko groups have standing; the decision says these idiots’ arguments have merit and the case can proceed.

This case could effectively end StarShip development and set the programs back years, if not decades, until a new development site is found and built.

The case targets the agencies which give SpaceX permission to shut the beaches.

They want to stop SpaceX from closing the beach because Texas voted to have the 2009 Open Beaches Amendment in its Constitution. Which the frequent closures by SpaceX violates. The law is meant to stop developers from building industrial sites on the beaches0.

The case is likely funded by deep-pocket wackos like the Sierra Club, who could care less about space and China on the moon. They only care about their power and getting locally ‘endangered species’ protected.

[BeauBo]

Putin goes to Turkey on 12 February.

Kyiv Independent reports:

“Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin will discuss a new mechanism for exporting Ukrainian grain via the Black Sea during Putin’s upcoming visit to Turkey, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said in a television interview Feb. 4, as reported by Reuters.

Russian media on Jan. 29 announced Putin’s plans to visit Turkey in February. The visit, set for Feb. 12, marks Putin’s first trip to a NATO country since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Fidan told A Haber television that the leaders will discuss “new methods” of shipping Ukrainian grain products following Moscow’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative in July 2023...

...Putin’s international visits have been curtailed since the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant in March 2023 for his role in the deportations of Ukrainian children. Turkey is not party to the ICC’s Rome Statute, meaning it is under no obligation to detain Putin.”

[BeauBo]

British military takes out moving drone with a laser

The DragonFire anti-drone weapons system is meant to be a vastly cheaper alternative to using missiles.

https://taskandpurpose.com/tech-tactics/dragonfire-laser-british-military-anti-drone-swarm/ BY NICHOLAS SLAYTON | PUBLISHED JAN 20, 2024

"The British Ministry of Defense announced the successful firing of the (DragonFire) directed-energy weapon system on Friday, Jan. 19. The DragonFire system took out an aerial drone while it was in flight, the first time it had done so.

An image shared by the British MOD even gives a striking look at DragonFire in action, with a bright beam of light taking out the drone. It looks less like Star Wars or Star Trek and more like an actual beam of fire.

The British military is pursuing this project as an effective and cost-efficient way to counter the growing threat of drones and drone swarms. The exact range of DragonFire has not been announced, but according to the British MOD it can hit a coin a kilometer away and function as a line-of-sight weapon. More importantly, it’s cheap. Much cheaper than any missile that would currently be used. According to developers, the operation cost is “typically less than £10 per shot...

...The DragonFire project was publicly announced in 2017, but it’s taken years of tests and experiments to reach this achievement.”

[PIF]

Reporting From Ukraine:
Note: other versions of this report are found elsewhere on FR, but this is guaranteed to be the complete transcript - unlike the others.
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU

[ Russians Crossed The Death Valley & Entered Avdiivka ]

==

Day 712: Feb 05

Today, the biggest news comes from the Avdiivka direction.

Here, the most dynamic clashes are taking place in the central part of the region.

First of all, Ukrainian forces managed to localize the Russian breakthrough by retaking key positions that allowed them to establish fire control over the roads.

This way, Russian heavy mechanized assault units cannot enter the region and reinforce those inside the bridgehead, and Russians have to rely exclusively on small supplies via the underground pipe.

Russian sources also released several videos showing how they are delivering additional small supplies with aerial drones.

Due to continuous Ukrainian shelling and tank raids, Russians did not manage to improve their situation, while Ukrainians still have not found and destroyed the entry point to the pipe, causing the frontline here to get stuck.

Such a setting forces Russians to return to and double down on their previous idea of partial encirclement of the town.

The partial encirclement of the town implies penetrating the settlement right between its two most fortified areas: the chemical plant and the area with high-rise buildings.

Moreover, in order to achieve encirclement in this scenario, it is sufficient to advance just from one side because this is where the main Ukrainian supply roads are located.

By advancing in the center and cutting it off, Ukrainians in the southern part of the town will basically have no connection to the mainland, apart from risky dirt roads along the tree lines in the field.

The first major attempt happened a few weeks ago when Russians tried to use mechanized columns. Ukrainian fighters from the one-hundred-tenth mechanized brigade released a video showing this attack.

According to the fighters, Russians tried to split them and open multiple vectors of attack. However, they were spotted well in advance by Ukrainian reconnaissance drone operators and gradually demolished by the time they reached the front line.

Unfortunately, Russians made reasonable adjustments, abandoned the idea of using large armored groups, and switched to pure infantry assaults.

Prior to making each push, Russians would send small units of two to four people one after another into the small residential zone to accumulate forces.

Even though Russian soldiers complained that Ukrainians were targeting even such small groups, overall, the Russian tactic worked, and they expanded the area of control over the so-called Ivushka dacha area on the northern outskirts of Avdiivka.

As a result, the Ukrainian Army withdrew from the tree lines north of the quarry, inevitably giving Russians more freedom of movement in the area.

This reduced Ukrainian fire control over the region and allowed Russians to start reinforcing their infantry with armored fighting vehicles once again. Geolocated footage shows multiple Russian pieces of equipment amid demolished houses.

Nonetheless, the additional reinforcements did not seem to help, and despite having more forces in the Ivushka dacha area, they had less progress.

The main reason for the reduced pace of the operation lies in the topography of the region. If we look at the topographic map, we can see that there is a small valley between Avdiivka and the Ivushka dacha area.

Crossing it required getting exposed, which inevitably led to high losses and retreats. Geolocated combat footage released by Ukrainian special operators reveals that many Russian forces were eliminated by drones.

However, suddenly, the fights did break out on the streets of Avdiivka, implying that Russians penetrated the Ukrainian defense.

Russian sources reported that Russians advanced by up to five hundred meters, reached the railways, and cut off Ukrainian supplies. Other sources started amplifying the news, with some claiming that the whole residential area had fallen.

Nonetheless, based on geolocation, Russians were spotted only on Sapronova Street, implying a significantly narrower zone of operations. A Ukrainian fighter from the twenty-fourth battalion reported that there was no need to be concerned because good news would soon be released.

The freshest updates received several hours ago from the soldiers on the ground indicate that the Russian bridgehead was completely eliminated. Another soldier released a video showing how they cleared the street and took captive all Russian soldiers that survived.

Still, the shifting of fighting left many Ukrainian analysts wondering how the Russians achieved it. Fortunately, Russian sources have promptly revealed it. One Russian source alluded to the fact that the operation was conducted at night to minimize the risk of drone attacks.

Another source alluded to the fact that a special new technology was used to ensure that assault units remained undetected for as long as possible. The analysts concluded that Russians used the so-called invisibility cloak against thermal cameras, which is exactly what Ukrainians are heavily relying on to monitor the perimeter at night.

Now, Ukrainians need to adjust their practices to monitor the region more effectively and use a combination of night vision, thermal cameras, and movement detection systems. All these tools are already available; there is just a question of quantity.

Hopefully, they will be put to use immediately.

[BeauBo]

This comes on top of South Korea cancelling deliveries of ice hardened LNG Tankers for the Arctic LNG-2 Project.

Russia’s New LNG Project Stumbles as U.S. Sanctions Delay Ship Delivery

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russias-New-LNG-Project-Stumbles-as-US-Sanctions-Delay-Ship-Delivery.html

“Japan’s shipping giant Mitsui OSK Lines is unable to deliver ice-breaker class ships to Russia’s new LNG export project in the Arctic because of the U.S. sanctions levied on the project’s operator at the end of last year, the president of the Japanese firm told Bloomberg in an interview on Tuesday.

The U.S. sanctions on Russia’s latest LNG project, Arctic LNG 2 of the largest Russian LNG exporter, Novatek, have upended the company’s plans for production start-up and export timelines.

In November, the U.S. Department of State designated limited liability company ARCTIC LNG 2, the operator of the Arctic LNG 2 Project, as part of additional sanctions against Russia “to further target individuals and entities associated with Russia’s war effort and other malign activities.”

This has led some minority shareholders in the project, including France’s TotalEnergies, to declare force majeure on future deliveries.

Novatek holds a 60% stake in Arctic LNG 2. The other shareholders include CNOOC of China and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), TotalEnergies, and Japanese firms Mitsui Group and Jogmec.

Japan’s Mitsui OSK Lines was supposed to deliver three ice-class breakers to carry LNG from the Arctic plant. The first of the three ice-breaker LNG vessels is expected to finish construction later this year.

“Our contractual obligation is that if we cannot provide the service to Arctic 2, we have to sell our vessel to Arctic 2,” Mitsui OSK Lines president Takeshi Hashimoto told Bloomberg.
But “there is a sanction that says we should not do that deal with Arctic. So it’s a bit complicated,” the Japanese executive added.

The company is working with the U.S. and Japanese governments to find a solution to the ship delivery issue, he added.

Potential contract cancellations for the construction of ice-class LNG carriers and U.S. sanctions on the latest Russian LNG export project could hamper Russia’s plans to boost LNG sales now that its pipeline route to Europe is largely cut off.”

[BeauBo]

Hungarian opposition political Parties tried to call an emergency session of Parliament on Monday, to vote on Sweden’s accession to NATO, but Orban’s Fidesz Party did not attend, so no quorum was reached.

Orban wants a State visit from Sweden first.

[BeauBo]

(Reuters) - “The prosecutor leading Sweden’s investigation into the Nord Stream gas pipeline blasts in the Baltic Sea in 2022 expects to make an announcement on the case on Wednesday (7 Feb), his office said on Tuesday.

The Swedish prosecutor’s office said on Monday a statement would likely come some time this week and would contain a decision on whether to drop the case, press charges or request that someone is detained.”

[BeauBo]

Newsweek reports: Satellite Photos Hint at Russia’s Higher-Than-Reported Artillery Losses
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/satellite-photos-hint-at-russias-higher-than-reported-artillery-losses/ar-BB1hRpQf

“Russia has removed around half of its artillery from its storage bases since the start of the invasion of Ukraine. This suggests a high rate of attrition of its equipment, according to satellite imagery cited by open-source intelligence (OSINT) analysts...

...As of Tuesday, Russia had lost 666 pieces of Self-Propelled Artillery (SPG) and 340 pieces of Towed Artillery (SA), according to Oryx. The website tracks losses using photo or video evidence, albeit with the caveat that the amount of equipment destroyed is “significantly higher.”...

...However, data from the OSINT analysts High_Marsed and Covert Cabal, posted on X, formerly Twitter, showed that Moscow’s forces have been drawing on large numbers of both forms of equipment from its stocks, due to high losses and barrel wear.

The analysts’ tally posted on February 3 found that, before the war, Russia had 4,450 SPGs in storage at its most-important bases, but this has dwindled by 1,489 to 2,961. Their estimate of towed artillery had declined from 14,631 before the invasion to 6,786, a decrease of 7,845.

The post on X said the analysts had confidence in the accuracy of the prewar count and the numbers of SPGs, but towed artillery was harder to identify, so the numbers might change in the future. Plus, lower-resolution satellite imagery was used for several bases, which required some degree of guess work.

“I think we can conclude that there is a high rate of attrition, which could be caused by high losses, but barrel wear is probably also very important,” High Marsed told Newsweek.

“Russia fires a lot of shells, so they need a lot of replacement barrels, but many of the systems are not in production anymore. I think it is also worth noting that they have taken the more-capable towed artillery first, like the 2A65 (howitzer) and 2A36 (field gun),” High Marsed added.

“A part of the remaining stock is made up of some very old guns like the M-30, which was already used in World War II, but also the MT-12, which is theoretically an anti-tank gun and not artillery, and the M-46 with a 130mm caliber that is not actively used by Russia.”

High_Marsed said that Russia is cannibalizing some of their SPG stocks, although it is difficult to estimate accurately the extent of this. “It is reasonable to say that the war is draining the storage bases, but I have no idea how long it will take until they are empty or until we see effects on the front line.””